InflationState: Sticky HighConfidence Medium
Confirmed by
- PCE Price Index (Core) (PCEPILFE)
- Average Hourly Earnings y/y (CES0500000003)
Invalidated by
- Initial Jobless Claims (Spike) (ICSA)
- VIX Volatility (Surge) (VIXCLS)
Causal implications · Inflation · 2026-10-05
Structural stickiness amid positive output gaps and energy-driven cost-push pressures.
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Earlier readings
- 2026-10-20Sticky Inflation at $100+ Oil Forces Curve Bear-Steepening Risk
- 2026-10-19Inflation persistence forces 'higher-for-longer' yields, challenging growth valuations.
- 2026-10-16Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Long-End Yields and Real USD
- 2026-10-15Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Term Premiums and Dollar Carry.
- 2026-10-14Sticky Core PCE at 3% and $96 Oil Enforce Restrictive Policy Floor.
- 2026-10-13Sticky inflation maintains upward pressure on long-end yields and US dollar strength.
- 2026-10-02Sticky inflation at $96 oil drives terminal rate repricing and margin pressure.
- 2026-09-30Late-cycle supply pressure and high energy costs sustain inflation stickiness.
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