Inflation · causal implications

One dated reading per day, frozen as published. Each lists the channels at work and the data series that would confirm or invalidate it.

DateCardAvg 5d

2026-10-20Sticky Inflation at $100+ Oil Forces Curve Bear-Steepening Risk
2026-10-19Inflation persistence forces 'higher-for-longer' yields, challenging growth valuations.
2026-10-16Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Long-End Yields and Real USD
2026-10-15Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Term Premiums and Dollar Carry.
2026-10-14Sticky Core PCE at 3% and $96 Oil Enforce Restrictive Policy Floor.
2026-10-13Sticky inflation maintains upward pressure on long-end yields and US dollar strength.
2026-10-05Structural stickiness amid positive output gaps and energy-driven cost-push pressures.
2026-10-02Sticky inflation at $96 oil drives terminal rate repricing and margin pressure.
2026-09-30Late-cycle supply pressure and high energy costs sustain inflation stickiness.
2026-09-29Inflation Stagnation Amidst Bear Steepening and Elevated Energy Costs
2026-09-28Sticky Inflation Regime Driven by Energy and Import Pass-through via Weak Phillips Curve
2026-09-25Sticky High Inflation: Supply Shocks Counteracting Monetary Restraint
2026-09-21Sticky Inflation Regime: Oil Headwinds & Term Premium Normalization Path
2026-09-18Inflation Persistence Anchors Nominal Yields and USD Strength Amid Elevated Oil
2026-09-14Sticky inflation regime supported by energy costs and supply-side price rigidity.
2026-09-13Sticky Inflation Anchors Front-End Yields as Term Premia Rebuilds
2026-09-11Sticky inflation sustained by energy costs and import pass-through despite 3.6% FFR.
2026-09-09Inflation sticky at 3.3% Core PCE; Real rates and energy costs anchor high yield floor.
2026-09-07Energy-Driven Persistence Amid Low Slack Challenges Disinflationary Path
2026-08-22Sticky Inflation Regime: Real Rate Compression vs. Duration Risk Expansion
2026-08-17Sticky Inflation Hardens Yield Floor; Fed Reaction Function Under Stress
2026-08-16Inflation Persistence Drives Real Rate Re-Pricing Amid Low Volatility Complacency
2026-07-02Sticky-high inflation with ultra-tight labor; market re-prices persistent inflation risk
2026-06-25Sticky-high inflation biases rates higher, supports USD, pressures risk assets
2026-05-30Sticky-high US inflation with ultra-tight labor market and high energy prices
2026-05-27Sticky-high inflation with firm oil keeps policy bias hawkish; front end at risk
2026-05-26Sticky-high inflation, oil-supported headline pressure, policy-path repricing risk
2026-05-24Sticky-high inflation with $112 oil and strong USD pressures USTs and risk assets
2026-05-23Sticky-high inflation with ultra-low jobless rate and high oil: front-end up, risk premia vulnerable
2026-05-21Sticky-high inflation and $112 oil keep higher-for-longer risks alive
2026-05-17Sticky-high inflation with oil >$100; tighter-for-longer risks for rates, FX, credit
2026-05-13Sticky-high inflation with $100 oil; markets price higher policy path and inflation risk
2026-05-08Sticky inflation, high oil, and a modest bear‑steepening bias
2026-05-01Sticky-high inflation with oil near $100 keeps curve steep, cuts priced out
2026-04-29Disinflation nudges front-end rates and breakevens lower; credit supported, USD softer

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