Causal implications · Inflation · 2026-05-13

Sticky-high inflation with $100 oil; markets price higher policy path and inflation risk

InflationState: Sticky HighConfidence Medium

Confirmed by

Core PCE YoY holds ≥3.2% or re-accelerates (PCEPILFE)
5y breakeven rises to ≥2.9% (T5YIE)
2y Treasury yield moves above 4.2% (DGS2)
HY OAS widens to ≥3.3% (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Broad dollar index breaks above 120 (DTWEXBGS)

Invalidated by

Core PCE YoY falls to ≤3.0% (PCEPILFE)
2y Treasury yield declines to ≤3.6% (DGS2)
5y breakeven falls below 2.3% (T5YIE)
HY OAS tightens to ≤2.5% (BAMLH0A0HYM2)

No verifiable public source recorded for this card.

Earlier readings

2026-10-20Sticky Inflation at $100+ Oil Forces Curve Bear-Steepening Risk
2026-10-19Inflation persistence forces 'higher-for-longer' yields, challenging growth valuations.
2026-10-16Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Long-End Yields and Real USD
2026-10-15Sticky Inflation Sustains Upward Pressure on Term Premiums and Dollar Carry.
2026-10-14Sticky Core PCE at 3% and $96 Oil Enforce Restrictive Policy Floor.
2026-10-13Sticky inflation maintains upward pressure on long-end yields and US dollar strength.
2026-10-05Structural stickiness amid positive output gaps and energy-driven cost-push pressures.
2026-10-02Sticky inflation at $96 oil drives terminal rate repricing and margin pressure.

See today's live cards

Public pages are published 24 hours after the product shows them. Desk shows every catalyst, event and causal reading as it happens, mapped to your holdings.

Open Desk — $399/month