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Card Odds
Estimate the chance of a card event. Compete on the accuracy of your probability judgment.
MO STATS · FREE CALCULATOR
Bankroll and Drawdown Simulator
Compare the distribution of outcomes when the same fraction of current virtual bankroll is put at risk each round.
No account to calculateNo real-money wageringTransparent assumptions
CALCULATOR
Bankroll simulator
Simulate how repeated wins and losses change a virtual bankroll under a fixed-fraction strategy.
Start with your assumptions
Enter values and calculate to see the result, method, and assumptions.
PUT YOUR JUDGMENT TO WORK
Compete on decisions.
Free entry
Bankroll Arena
Choose a stake for a simulated opportunity. Compete on the quality of the decision under stated odds.
Games award nonredeemable MO Chips and decision scores. Chips cannot be bought, transferred or exchanged, and game results never earn anything of monetary value. Subscribing gives no competitive advantage.
Worked example
- Paths ending below initial bankroll
- 24.6%
- Paths reaching at least 20% drawdown
- 94.4%
- Median maximum drawdown
- 34.3189%
This worked sample uses 1,000 paths of 100 rounds, a 55% win probability, net win odds of 1:1, a 5% fraction per round and seed 42. Results are reproducible under engine version mo-stats-v1. They are simulation estimates, not exact probabilities.
Example inputs
- winProbability:
0.55 - profitOdds:
1 - fraction:
0.05 - paths:
1000 - rounds:
100 - seed:
42 - drawdownThreshold:
0.2
Method
On a win, bankroll is multiplied by 1 + fraction × net profit odds. On a loss, it is multiplied by 1 − fraction. Maximum drawdown is the largest fall from any previous peak. Log equity is used internally to avoid overflow across long paths.
Sampling and assumptions
Trials are independent and win probability, payout and sizing fraction are constant. Monte Carlo estimates vary across seeds; more paths reduce sampling error but do not repair wrong assumptions. A 20% drawdown is not bankruptcy. The simulator does not model trading costs, changing odds, market gaps or dependence unless these are explicitly added to a future model.
Reproducibility and limits
Practice simulations use a deterministic non-cryptographic seeded generator and never determine ranked game outcomes or rewards. The engine allows at most 10,000 paths, 10,000 rounds and 1,000,000 total round-steps, with sizing fraction at most 25%.
Related
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