Oil prices and headline inflation
When oil prices move, how much of that shows up in US headline CPI over the following months?
Data through 2026-08 · revision dd1ddc688c056e90
Cumulative pass-through
0.0176
Months
434
R²
0.46
Scenario
Estimated cumulative CPI response over 0–3 months: 0.176 pp of month-on-month inflation, holding last month's inflation fixed.
Lag coefficients
| Lag (months) | Coefficient | HAC s.e. | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0120 | 0.0019 | 6.15 |
| 1 | 0.0056 | 0.0013 | 4.44 |
| 2 | -0.0014 | 0.0014 | -1.00 |
| 3 | 0.0015 | 0.0011 | 1.32 |
Method and assumptions
Monthly % change in CPI-U regressed on its own prior month and on the current and three prior monthly % changes in WTI, sample 1990-06 to 2026-08. Newey–West standard errors with lag 5. This is an association estimated on history, not a forecast; energy weights in CPI and pass-through change over time. Spec dl-3-v1.