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2s10s Yield Curve Spread

What is 2s10s Yield Curve Spread?

Difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields.

Why it matters

Inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since 1968.

How to read prints

When it rises

Curve steepening; usually risk-on or rate-cut pricing.

When it falls

Curve flattening or inverting; classic late-cycle / recession signal.

Frequently asked

What is the 2s10s spread?⌄
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, expressed in basis points. It is the most-watched yield-curve measure.
Why does inversion signal recession?⌄
An inverted 2s10s historically preceded every U.S. recession since 1955 with a lead of 6 to 24 months. It reflects markets pricing aggressive future cuts.
What is bull steepening?⌄
The curve steepening because the short end rallies faster than the long end. Usually occurs as the Fed starts cutting into weakness.
What is bear steepening?⌄
The curve steepening because long yields rise faster than short yields. Usually reflects rising term premium or supply concerns.

Track it on Market Ontology

Monitor 2s10s Yield Curve Spread in real time on Rates & Curves, alongside regime classification, transmission mapping, and cross-asset context.

SourceCalculated
FrequencyContinuous
CategoryRates
FRED SeriesT10Y2Y
Unitbp
Related ModuleRates & Curves

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