RatesCalculatedDaily

5s30s Treasury Curve Spread

What is 5s30s Treasury Curve Spread?

The 5s30s spread is the 30-year Treasury yield minus the 5-year Treasury yield. It measures the steepness of the long end of the yield curve, separate from short-end Fed policy expectations.

Why it matters

Where 2s10s reflects policy expectations, 5s30s reflects term premium, long-run inflation, and Treasury supply concerns. Bear steepening (long end selling off) often signals fiscal or supply-driven repricing rather than Fed pivots.

How to read prints

When it rises

Long-end curve steepening; rising term premium or supply concerns.

When it falls

Long-end flattening; long-duration demand or growth/inflation scare.

Frequently asked

What is the 5s30s spread?⌄
30-year Treasury yield minus 5-year Treasury yield, in basis points. Measures the slope of the long end of the curve.
How is 5s30s different from 2s10s?⌄
2s10s captures Fed policy expectations (the 2Y is policy-sensitive). 5s30s strips out the policy component and isolates term premium and long-run inflation expectations.
What is bear steepening in 5s30s?⌄
The long end (30Y) selling off faster than the 5Y, usually reflecting Treasury supply concerns, rising term premium, or un-anchoring inflation expectations.
Why do macro PMs watch 5s30s?⌄
It is the cleanest read on whether market stress is policy-driven (2s10s moves) or structural/fiscal (5s30s moves).

Track it on Market Ontology

Monitor 5s30s Treasury Curve Spread in real time on Macro Regime, alongside regime classification, transmission mapping, and cross-asset context.

SourceCalculated
FrequencyDaily
CategoryRates
FRED SeriesT10Y2Y
Unitbp
Related ModuleMacro Regime

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