InflationFederal ReserveDaily

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

What is 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate?

The 10-Year Breakeven is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS real yield, representing the markets average expected CPI inflation rate over the next 10 years.

Why it matters

It is the cleanest market-based read on long-run inflation expectations. The Fed monitors it closely; sustained moves above 2.5% are seen as evidence that expectations are un-anchoring.

How to read prints

When it rises

Long-run inflation expectations rising; pressures duration, signals Fed credibility risk.

When it falls

Long-run inflation expectations falling; supports duration, signals Fed credibility intact.

Frequently asked

What is the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate?⌄
10-year nominal Treasury yield minus 10-year TIPS yield. Roughly equals expected average CPI inflation over 10 years, plus a small risk premium.
What is a normal level?⌄
Consistent with the Fed 2% PCE target, the 10-year breakeven should trade ~2.0-2.4% (CPI runs ~30 bp above PCE). Sustained >2.5% raises un-anchoring concerns.
What is 5y5y forward breakeven?⌄
The implied 5-year breakeven 5 years from now; the Fed treats this forward measure as the markets long-run inflation expectation.
How does the 10Y breakeven differ from CPI swaps?⌄
Breakevens include a liquidity premium (TIPS are less liquid than nominals) and an inflation risk premium. CPI swaps are a cleaner read but a smaller market.

Track it on Market Ontology

Monitor 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate in real time on Macro Regime, alongside regime classification, transmission mapping, and cross-asset context.

SourceFederal Reserve
FrequencyDaily
CategoryInflation
FRED SeriesT10YIE
Unit%
Related ModuleMacro Regime

Related indicators

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

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Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy)

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

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