10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Inflation · Federal Reserve · Daily · T10YIE
What it is
The 10-Year Breakeven is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS real yield, representing the markets average expected CPI inflation rate over the next 10 years.
Why it matters
It is the cleanest market-based read on long-run inflation expectations. The Fed monitors it closely; sustained moves above 2.5% are seen as evidence that expectations are un-anchoring.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceLatest completed assessment: 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
It is the cleanest market-based read on long-run inflation expectations. The Fed monitors it closely; sustained moves above 2.5% are seen as evidence that expectations are un-anchoring.
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Release fact | The 10-Year Breakeven is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS real yield, representing the markets average expected CPI inflation rate over the next 10 years. | Daily · % |
| Interpretation | Long-run inflation expectations rising; pressures duration, signals Fed credibility risk. | Higher-reading interpretation |
| Interpretation | Long-run inflation expectations falling; supports duration, signals Fed credibility intact. | Lower-reading interpretation |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
A single indicator does not identify causality; confirm the move against related funding, reserve, market, and asset data.
- · The next observation reverses the move.
- · Related indicators do not confirm the interpretation.
Do this in Market Ontology
- Treasury yield curve analysis from released dataTrack the US Treasury yield curve from FRED: 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, inversion history and what changes in slope have preceded.
- Track inflation from CPI, PCE and market breakevensMonitor US inflation from released data: CPI and core CPI, PCE, and 5- and 10-year breakevens, with what the next release needs to show.
- Track the US labor market from released dataFollow payrolls, unemployment, jobless claims and wage growth from FRED, with the Sahm rule reading and trend versus the prior year.
- Central bank policy analysisRead Federal Reserve policy from the funds rate, real rates and released statements, and compare the stance with inflation and labor data.
How to read prints
| When it rises | Long-run inflation expectations rising; pressures duration, signals Fed credibility risk. |
| When it falls | Long-run inflation expectations falling; supports duration, signals Fed credibility intact. |
Frequently asked
What is the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate?⌄
What is a normal level?⌄
What is 5y5y forward breakeven?⌄
How does the 10Y breakeven differ from CPI swaps?⌄
Tracked live in Macro Regime
See it live
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate is tracked live in the inflation, breakevens and real yields module of the public terminal. No account required.
| Source | Federal Reserve |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Category | Inflation |
| FRED Series | T10YIE |
| Unit | % |
| Related Module | Macro Regime |