Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Monthly · CPIAUCSL
What it is
Measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
Why it matters
Headline inflation drives Fed policy, rate expectations, breakevens, and real yields.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceLatest completed assessment: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Headline inflation drives Fed policy, rate expectations, breakevens, and real yields.
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Release fact | Measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. | Monthly · % |
| Interpretation | Inflation is accelerating; bonds typically sell off and the Fed leans hawkish. | Higher-reading interpretation |
| Interpretation | Inflation is cooling; bonds typically rally and rate-cut odds rise. | Lower-reading interpretation |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
Countercase
A single indicator does not identify causality; confirm the move against related funding, reserve, market, and asset data.
What would change the view
- · The next observation reverses the move.
- · Related indicators do not confirm the interpretation.
Do this in Market Ontology
- Treasury yield curve analysis from released dataTrack the US Treasury yield curve from FRED: 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, inversion history and what changes in slope have preceded.
- Track inflation from CPI, PCE and market breakevensMonitor US inflation from released data: CPI and core CPI, PCE, and 5- and 10-year breakevens, with what the next release needs to show.
- Track the US labor market from released dataFollow payrolls, unemployment, jobless claims and wage growth from FRED, with the Sahm rule reading and trend versus the prior year.
- Central bank policy analysisRead Federal Reserve policy from the funds rate, real rates and released statements, and compare the stance with inflation and labor data.
How to read prints
| When it rises | Inflation is accelerating; bonds typically sell off and the Fed leans hawkish. |
| When it falls | Inflation is cooling; bonds typically rally and rate-cut odds rise. |
Frequently asked
What is CPI?⌄
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is the headline U.S. inflation measure.
How often is CPI released?⌄
Monthly, usually on the second week of the month at 8:30 AM ET, for the prior month.
What is the difference between CPI and Core CPI?⌄
Core CPI excludes food and energy, which are volatile. The Fed pays closer attention to core measures when setting policy.
How does CPI move markets?⌄
Hotter-than-expected CPI prints push Treasury yields higher, the dollar higher, and stocks lower as markets price in tighter monetary policy.
Tracked live in Inflation System
See it live
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is tracked live in the inflation, breakevens and real yields module of the public terminal. No account required.
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Category | Inflation |
| FRED Series | CPIAUCSL |
| Unit | % |
| Related Module | Inflation System |