Event-driven investing
From catalyst to thesis, valuation change, and portfolio exposure
Merger arbitrage, restructurings, spinoffs and tender offers are the classical event-driven universe. The same discipline applies to policy decisions, macro releases, geopolitical shocks and operational disruptions once you can name the mechanism, the line items it moves, and the assumptions it revises. Each record below does exactly that, on a longer horizon than the trading scanner.
Thesis records
| Ticker | Company | Mechanism | Line items | Assumptions revised | Direction | Horizon | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRS | Northern Trust Corporation | Uncertainty regarding future financial strategy, capital allocation, and investor relations approach under new CFO. Potential for market speculation during search. | operating_margin, capex, working_capital, share_count, WACC | Future capital allocation strategy, Efficiency initiatives, Investor confidence in financial stewardship | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| SGL | Sino Green Land Corp. | Direct dilution from share issuance; potential integration risks and benefits from acquisitions. | share_count, revenue, gross_margin, operating_margin, working_capital, capex | Per-share earnings (dilution), Future growth rates (from acquisitions), Synergy realization, Integration costs | negative | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| MDB | MongoDB, Inc. | Direct communication of financial outlook, strategic priorities, and leadership changes to the market. AI adoption impact could drive revenue growth but also increase R&D/capex. | revenue, gross_margin, operating_margin, capex, share_count | revenue growth rate, long-term operating margin, capital expenditure intensity, management effectiveness premium/discount | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | MongoDB's commentary on AI adoption and cloud database trends could provide insights into the broader competitive landscape and demand for cloud infrastructure services, which impacts Microsoft Azure. | revenue, capex | cloud services growth rate, competitive intensity in database-as-a-service | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Similar to Microsoft, MongoDB's insights into AI adoption and cloud database market dynamics could inform expectations for Google Cloud Platform's performance and competitive positioning. | revenue, capex | cloud services growth rate, competitive intensity in database-as-a-service | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | MongoDB's strategic updates, particularly regarding AI and cloud database trends, can offer indirect insights into the competitive environment and demand for Amazon Web Services (AWS) database offerings. | revenue, capex | cloud services growth rate, competitive intensity in database-as-a-service | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | As a fellow data platform company, MongoDB's outlook on AI adoption, data management trends, and enterprise spending could provide read-through for Snowflake's market opportunity and competitive landscape. | revenue, operating_margin | customer acquisition rate, data platform market growth | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | MongoDB's discussion of enterprise IT spending, cloud migration, and AI adoption could offer indirect signals about the demand for observability and monitoring solutions, which Datadog provides. | revenue | enterprise IT spending growth, cloud adoption rate | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | Direct reduction in outstanding shares, signaling management confidence and commitment to shareholder returns. The ASR structure provides immediate share count reduction. Funding from cleared capacity revenues suggests a non-debt-funded buyback, which is generally viewed positively. | share_count, WACC | Earnings Per Share (EPS) accretion, Return on Equity (ROE), Free Cash Flow (FCF) allocation efficiency, Perceived management confidence | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Goldman Sachs is one of the financial institutions executing the Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) for Talen Energy. This generates fee income for Goldman Sachs. | revenue | Investment banking fee income | positive | intraday | 2026-09-29 |
| SAN | Banco Santander, S.A. | Banco Santander is one of the financial institutions executing the Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) for Talen Energy. This generates fee income for Banco Santander. | revenue | Investment banking fee income | positive | intraday | 2026-09-29 |
| DKNG | DraftKings Inc. | Regulatory risk in emerging markets; potential for similar measures in other jurisdictions or impact on market sentiment for online gambling. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth, Geographic expansion opportunities, Regulatory risk premium | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PENN | PENN Entertainment, Inc. | Regulatory risk in emerging markets; potential for similar measures in other jurisdictions or impact on market sentiment for online gambling. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth, Geographic expansion opportunities, Regulatory risk premium | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | Regulatory risk in emerging markets; potential for similar measures in other jurisdictions or impact on market sentiment for online gambling. | revenue, operating_margin | Online gaming growth prospects, International expansion strategy, Regulatory risk premium | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| FLUT | Flutter Entertainment plc | Regulatory risk in emerging markets; potential for similar measures in other jurisdictions or impact on market sentiment for online gambling. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth, Geographic expansion opportunities, Regulatory risk premium | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| EVRI | Everi Holdings Inc. | Indirect impact on B2B suppliers to the online gambling industry due to reduced market size or increased regulatory uncertainty. | revenue, operating_margin | Growth in gaming technology and fintech solutions for online casinos, Market penetration of iGaming platforms | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| NVT | nVent Electric plc | Direct financing activity; potential for capital allocation changes. | interest_expense, capex, working_capital, share_count | Cost of debt, Future growth investments, Shareholder return policy (dividends/buybacks) | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| USB | U.S. Bancorp | Fee income from acting as indenture trustee. | revenue | Non-interest income growth | positive | 1-5d | 2026-09-29 |
| SGEN | Seagen Inc. | Broader positive sentiment and increased investor interest in the gene therapy and rare disease space, potentially benefiting companies with similar platforms or pipeline assets, though indirectly. | WACC, terminal_multiple | Sector-specific discount rates, Investor appetite for biotech M&A | watch | 1-5y | 2026-09-29 |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | Direct signal of management confidence and capital return to shareholders. | share_count | Dividend yield, Investor confidence in future cash flows, Cost of equity (potentially lower due to reduced risk perception) | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| DYN | Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. | Direct positive clinical trial results for lead candidate, increasing probability of regulatory approval and future commercial success. | revenue, operating_margin, share_count, WACC, terminal_multiple | Probability of success (PoS) for z-basivarsen, Peak sales estimates for z-basivarsen, Discount rate (reflecting reduced risk), Potential for future equity financing at higher valuations | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics, Inc. | Increased competitive pressure in the Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) treatment landscape, potentially impacting future market share and pricing power for competing therapies. | revenue, gross_margin, operating_margin | Market share projections for DM1 therapies, Pricing power for DM1 therapies, Probability of success for competing DM1 programs | negative | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PORS | Portsmouth Square Inc | Improved liquidity management and reduced near-term refinancing risk. While the extension likely comes with higher interest rates, it avoids a more disruptive refinancing process or potential default in the short term. | interest_expense, working_capital | Discount rate (WACC) due to reduced credit risk perception, Terminal value due to improved going concern | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| BAM | Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. | BREIT is a non-traded REIT managed by Brookfield Asset Management. While BREIT's distributions are not direct dividends from BAM, the consistent declaration of distributions by a managed fund can reflect positively on BAM's asset management capabilities and fee-generating potential, albeit indirectl | revenue, operating_margin | Management fee revenue growth, Assets Under Management (AUM) stability | watch | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| BN | Brookfield Corporation | Brookfield Corporation is the parent company of Brookfield Asset Management. Similar to BAM, the consistent performance and distribution declarations from managed funds like BREIT can indirectly reflect on BN's overall asset management segment's health and fee income, though the direct financial imp | revenue, operating_margin | Parent company's asset management segment performance, Overall AUM growth | watch | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| ADSC | Adams Street Credit Solutions Fund | Direct distribution to shareholders, confirming expected income stream. | share_count | Dividend yield expectations, Investor income expectations | positive | intraday | 2026-09-29 |
| BX | Blackstone Inc. | Increased competition for private real estate assets and investor capital. While Fidelity's offering expands the market, it also adds another large player vying for similar investment opportunities and investor allocations. | revenue, operating_margin, WACC | Growth rate of assets under management (AUM), Fee-related earnings margin, Fundraising success rates | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | Similar to Blackstone, KKR operates a substantial real estate investment platform. The new Fidelity offering introduces another large competitor for both investor capital and attractive real estate assets. | revenue, operating_margin, WACC | Growth rate of assets under management (AUM), Fee-related earnings margin, Fundraising success rates | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | Apollo also has a substantial and growing real estate investment business. The entry of a new, large-scale open-ended private REIT from Fidelity could increase competition for both investor allocations and target properties, potentially impacting deal flow and pricing. | revenue, operating_margin, WACC | Growth rate of assets under management (AUM), Fee-related earnings margin, Fundraising success rates | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | Morgan Stanley Investment Management has its own real estate investment strategies and funds. The Fidelity offering represents increased competition for institutional and high-net-worth investor capital seeking private real estate exposure. | revenue, operating_margin | Asset management division's AUM growth, Fee income from alternative investments | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | JPMorgan Asset Management offers a range of real estate investment products. The Fidelity offering could intensify competition for investor capital and potentially for attractive income-producing real estate assets. | revenue, operating_margin | Asset management division's AUM growth, Fee income from alternative investments | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PLD | Prologis, Inc. | Indirect competition for real estate assets. While Fidelity's fund is private, it targets income-producing properties, which could include industrial or logistics assets that Prologis also seeks. Increased capital chasing these assets could marginally affect acquisition pricing or cap rates. | capex, terminal_multiple | Acquisition cap rates, Property valuation multiples | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| EQIX | Equinix, Inc. | Indirect competition for real estate assets. Fidelity's fund targets income-producing properties, which could potentially include data centers, a sector where Equinix operates. Increased capital in the private real estate market could marginally influence asset pricing. | capex, terminal_multiple | Acquisition cap rates, Property valuation multiples | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| ONCY | Oncolytics Biotech Inc. | Direct positive clinical data publication for lead asset, potentially increasing investor confidence and market visibility. | share_count, WACC, terminal_multiple | Probability of success for pelareorep in liver cancer, Peak sales potential for pelareorep, Discount rate reflecting perceived risk | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | Potential future collaboration or competition in immunotherapy for liver cancer. Merck's Keytruda is a leading immunotherapy. | revenue, operating_margin | Future market share in liver cancer immunotherapy, R&D pipeline value | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | Potential future collaboration or competition in immunotherapy for liver cancer. BMY's Opdivo is a leading immunotherapy. | revenue, operating_margin | Future market share in liver cancer immunotherapy, R&D pipeline value | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | Potential future M&A target or partnership for a large pharmaceutical company seeking to expand its oncology pipeline, particularly in liver cancer or immunotherapy. | revenue, capex | Strategic M&A opportunities, Future pipeline growth | watch | 1-5y | 2026-09-29 |
| SMST | SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. | Strategic expansion into a new geographic market (Canada) and increased asset base through a joint venture, potentially enhancing long-term revenue and asset value. | revenue, operating_margin, capex, working_capital, share_count | Growth rate of Net Operating Income (NOI), Asset base value, Geographic diversification premium | positive | 1-5y | 2026-09-29 |
| HLSQ | Tessera Defense & Homeland Security Inc. | Direct communication of long-term financial targets, potentially increasing investor confidence in future growth prospects and reducing perceived risk. | revenue, operating_margin, capex, share_count | Revenue growth rate, Future profitability assumptions, Discount rate (due to reduced perceived risk), Terminal growth rate | positive | 1-5y | 2026-09-29 |
| LIMN | Liminatus Pharma, Inc. | Direct regulatory compliance, investor sentiment, and potential for future capital raises. | share_count, WACC | Risk premium for micro-cap stocks, Liquidity discount, Ability to raise capital | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| CNSREIT | Cohen & Steers Income Opportunities REIT, Inc. | Direct impact on asset portfolio, revenue generation, and balance sheet structure. Integration risks and financing costs are also factors. | revenue, operating_margin, capex, working_capital, interest_expense | Net Operating Income (NOI) growth, Capitalization rate (Cap Rate), Cost of debt, Funds From Operations (FFO) per share | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | Indirect impact through landlord-tenant relationship. Stability of anchor tenant is a positive for the property, but the acquisition itself has minimal direct financial impact on Walmart. | - | - | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| CNS | Cohen & Steers, Inc. | Indirect impact as the parent company or sponsor of the REIT. Successful acquisitions by its sponsored funds can enhance its reputation and potentially lead to increased assets under management (AUM) or management fees. | revenue, operating_margin | Assets Under Management (AUM) growth, Management fee rates | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| SLXN | Silexion Therapeutics Corp | Immediate capital infusion, potential for future dilution, and changes to capital structure. | share_count, working_capital, WACC | Future share count for per-share metrics, Cost of equity due to increased share float and potential future dilution, Cash runway and financing needs | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| ONCY | Oncolytics Biotech Inc. | Positive clinical data publication enhancing drug candidate's profile and market perception, potentially attracting partnerships or investment. | revenue, capex, share_count, WACC | Probability of success for pelareorep in liver cancer, Peak sales potential for pelareorep, Discount rate reflecting reduced clinical risk | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | Potential for future collaboration or competition in the immunotherapy space, specifically for liver cancer. | revenue, capex | Future R&D pipeline value, Competitive landscape in oncology | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | Potential for future collaboration or competition in the immunotherapy space, specifically for liver cancer. | revenue, capex | Future R&D pipeline value, Competitive landscape in oncology | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | Potential for future collaboration or competition in the oncology market, particularly for novel cancer treatments. | revenue, capex | Future R&D pipeline value, Competitive landscape in oncology | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | General positive sentiment for the biotechnology sector, particularly for oncology-focused small-cap companies with promising clinical data. | - | - | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| CLAQ | Columbus Acquisition Corp. | Increased uncertainty regarding the completion of the business combination, potentially leading to redemptions or a failed deal. | share_count, working_capital | Probability of deal completion, Redemption rates | negative | 1-5d | 2026-09-29 |
| CLAQW | Columbus Acquisition Corp. Warrants | Warrants are highly sensitive to the probability of a successful business combination. Increased uncertainty directly reduces their perceived value. | - | Probability of deal completion, Implied volatility | negative | 1-5d | 2026-09-29 |
| CUBE | CubeSmart | Industry consolidation, competitive landscape, potential for future M&A activity or market share shifts. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Growth rate of FFO/AFFO, Market share assumptions, Cost of capital (WACC) due to perceived industry risk | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| EXR | Extra Space Storage Inc. | Industry consolidation, competitive landscape, potential for future M&A activity or market share shifts. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Growth rate of FFO/AFFO, Market share assumptions, Cost of capital (WACC) due to perceived industry risk | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| PSA | Public Storage | Industry consolidation, competitive landscape, potential for future M&A activity or market share shifts. | revenue, operating_margin, capex | Growth rate of FFO/AFFO, Market share assumptions, Cost of capital (WACC) due to perceived industry risk | watch | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| GLND | Greenland Energy Co | Direct response to a negative report, attempting to restore investor confidence and clarify operational/financial metrics. The market's reaction will determine the net effect. | revenue, gross_margin, operating_margin, capex, working_capital, share_count | Future cash flow projections (due to clarified resource estimates and permitting status), Discount rate (WACC, reflecting perceived risk), Terminal growth rate (reflecting long-term viability), Market sentiment and investor confidence | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| CRTD | Creatd, Inc. | Direct acquisition impact on financial statements and strategic direction. Potential for dilution or integration challenges. | revenue, gross_margin, operating_margin, share_count, working_capital | Growth rate of acquired business, Synergy realization, Cost of capital (if debt is used for remaining acquisition), Dilution impact on per-share metrics | mixed | 3-12m | 2026-09-29 |
| CCL | Carnival Corporation & plc | Direct reduction in outstanding shares, potentially boosting EPS and signaling management confidence. | share_count | Earnings Per Share (EPS), Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio (denominator effect), Return on Equity (ROE) | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Group | Peer capital allocation comparison; may prompt investor questions about Royal Caribbean's capital return strategy or signal industry health. | - | Relative valuation metrics (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) compared to peers, Investor sentiment towards capital allocation in the cruise sector | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| NCLH | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | Peer capital allocation comparison; may prompt investor questions about Norwegian's capital return strategy or signal industry health. | - | Relative valuation metrics (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) compared to peers, Investor sentiment towards capital allocation in the cruise sector | mixed | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
| CCL | Carnival Corporation & plc | Direct reduction in interest expense and debt principal, improving financial flexibility. | interest_expense, working_capital, share_count | cost_of_debt, free_cash_flow_to_equity, net_debt | positive | 1-3m | 2026-09-29 |
Add this thesis to my researchTheses carry into your own valuation model with the assumptions already flagged.
Methodology
What qualifies as an event. A discrete, dated or near-dated occurrence that changes a future cash-flow distribution. Corporate actions qualify by construction. Policy, macro, geopolitical and operational events qualify only when a specific line item can be named.
Line items before narrative. A thesis must state which financial line items move - revenue, gross margin, capital intensity, cost of debt - before it states a direction. A direction without a line item is a sentiment claim and is rejected.
Assumption tracking. Revised valuation assumptions are recorded against the model, so when a later event contradicts one, the affected theses are identifiable rather than forgotten.
Limits. Impact and confidence scores are ordinal model outputs, not probabilities, and are not comparable across asset classes. Nothing here is investment advice.