InflationFederal ReserveContinuous

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

What is 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate?

Difference between 5-year nominal Treasury yield and 5-year TIPS yield.

Why it matters

Market-implied inflation expectation over the next 5 years.

How to read prints

When it rises

Market-implied inflation expectations rising; risk of un-anchoring.

When it falls

Inflation expectations cooling; supports Fed cutting cycle.

Frequently asked

What is the 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate?⌄
The 5-year nominal Treasury yield minus the 5-year TIPS yield, expressed as a percentage. It reflects the markets average expected CPI inflation over the next 5 years.
What level matters?⌄
Near 2.0-2.3% is consistent with the Feds 2% PCE target (CPI runs ~30 bp above PCE on average). Sustained moves above 2.5% raise un-anchoring concerns.
What is the 5y5y forward breakeven?⌄
The implied 5-year breakeven 5 years from now; the Fed treats it as the markets long-run inflation expectation.
How is this different from survey-based expectations?⌄
Market-based breakevens include a liquidity premium and an inflation risk premium that survey measures (Michigan, NY Fed) do not.

Track it on Market Ontology

Monitor 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate in real time on Inflation System, alongside regime classification, transmission mapping, and cross-asset context.

SourceFederal Reserve
FrequencyContinuous
CategoryInflation
FRED SeriesT5YIE
Unit%
Related ModuleInflation System

Related indicators

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

Federal Reserve

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy)

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

Bureau of Economic Analysis

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