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How oil shocks hit markets
A crude shock transmits in a predictable order: breakevens rise within hours, real yields follow within a session, energy equities lead the move, transport and consumer-discretionary lag negatively, USD strengthens against oil-importing currencies (JPY, EUR), and weakens against producers (CAD, NOK). The shock is consumed by the market when breakevens stop rising or when rates re-anchor on growth concerns instead of inflation.
- First leg: breakevens
- 5Y and 10Y inflation breakevens move within the hour.
- Second leg: real yields
- Nominals rise less than breakevens - real yields fall.
- Equity rotation
- Energy + materials up. Transport, airlines, discretionary down.
- FX response
- CAD/NOK up vs JPY/EUR. USD mixed depending on Fed reaction function.
The transmission chain
Hour 1: Crude futures move. Breakeven inflation prices it within minutes.
Hour 2-4: Nominal yields adjust. Because breakevens move more than nominals, real yields fall - supportive for gold, growth stocks, and EM.
Day 1: Equity rotation. Energy and materials lead. Airlines, trucking, autos lag. Consumer discretionary weakens on real-income concerns.
Day 2-5: Central-bank reaction function. If markets price hikes, the equity story flips and growth concerns dominate. If markets price patience, the inflation trade extends.
Where it usually breaks
The chain breaks when growth concerns overtake inflation concerns. You see this when:
- 10Y yields stop rising despite breakeven moves
- Defensives outperform energy after day 2
- Yield curve flattens instead of steepening
That is the signal that the shock is now demand-destructive, not just price-pushing.