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    Identify the current macro regime

    Classify the economy by growth and inflation direction from released data, and see how asset classes have behaved in each regime.

    What macro regime are we in?

    A regime framework sorts conditions by whether growth and inflation are rising or falling, giving four quadrants. Asset class returns have historically differed by quadrant, so identifying the current one frames positioning.

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    Saved regime research with dated evidence and monitored questions, built from the details above and saved to your account in External Conditions.

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    Method

    • — Growth direction from industrial production, payrolls and real GDP trends.
    • — Inflation direction from 3-month annualised core CPI versus its 12-month rate.
    • — Regime = sign of growth momentum × sign of inflation momentum.

    Limits

    Regimes are identified with release lags; transitions are visible only after data confirm them.

    Updated 2026-10-15

    Questions

    Which assets do well in stagflation?
    Historically commodities and short-duration assets have held up better than long bonds and equities, but outcomes vary by episode.