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    Track inflation from CPI, PCE and market breakevens

    Monitor US inflation from released data: CPI and core CPI, PCE, and 5- and 10-year breakevens, with what the next release needs to show.

    Is inflation accelerating or cooling?

    Inflation is read from realised prices (CPI, PCE, their core versions excluding food and energy) and expectations priced in markets (breakevens = nominal Treasury yield − TIPS yield). Month-over-month annualised changes show momentum earlier than year-over-year rates.

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    Component analysis and tracked investment assumptions, built from the details above and saved to your account in External Conditions.

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    Method

    • — Series from FRED: CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, PCEPI, PCEPILFE, T5YIE, T10YIE.
    • — Year-over-year = index ÷ index 12 months earlier − 1; 3-month annualised = (index ÷ index 3 months earlier)^4 − 1.
    • — Next-release threshold: the monthly print that would keep the year-over-year rate unchanged, given the base month dropping out.

    Limits

    Uses the latest released vintage; revisions are not back-filled into past readings.

    Updated 2026-10-15

    Questions

    What is the difference between CPI and PCE?
    PCE covers a broader basket and updates weights more often; the Federal Reserve's 2% target refers to PCE.
    What do breakevens measure?
    Average inflation the bond market prices over the horizon, including a risk premium.