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    Central bank policy analysis

    Read Federal Reserve policy from the funds rate, real rates and released statements, and compare the stance with inflation and labor data.

    Is monetary policy restrictive or easy right now?

    Policy stance compares the policy rate with inflation and an estimate of the neutral rate. A positive real funds rate (funds rate − inflation) above neutral is restrictive; below is accommodative. Statements and minutes show which data the committee is weighing.

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    Monetary Policy screen in Market Ontology
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    Policy research case and scenario comparison, built from the details above and saved to your account in External Conditions.

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    Method

    • — Effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the target range from FRED.
    • — Real policy rate = EFFR − core PCE inflation year-over-year.
    • — Statement changes compared paragraph by paragraph between meetings.

    Limits

    Neutral rate estimates are uncertain; stance is shown relative to a range rather than a single figure.

    Updated 2026-10-15

    Questions

    What is the neutral rate?
    The policy rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy; it is estimated, not observed.