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    Treasury yield curve analysis from released data

    Track the US Treasury yield curve from FRED: 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, inversion history and what changes in slope have preceded.

    What is the yield curve signalling right now?

    The yield curve plots Treasury yields by maturity. Its slope — usually 10-year minus 2-year or minus 3-month — reflects expected policy rates and term premium. Inversions (short above long) have preceded most US recessions since the 1960s, with variable lags.

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    Yield Curve screen in Market Ontology
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    Curve comparison, maturity changes and saved spread watch, built from the details above and saved to your account in Market Ontology.

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    Method

    • — Daily constant-maturity yields from FRED (DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10, DGS30).
    • — Spreads: 10y − 2y (T10Y2Y) and 10y − 3m (T10Y3M), in percentage points.
    • — Inversion episodes dated from the first day a spread turns negative to re-steepening.

    Limits

    An inversion is a historical association, not a forecast; timing between inversion and recession has ranged from months to two years.

    Updated 2026-10-15

    Questions

    Which yield curve spread matters most?
    Research from the Federal Reserve favours the 10y–3m spread; markets quote 2s10s most often. Both are shown.
    What is a bear steepener?
    The curve steepens because long yields rise faster than short yields, often on inflation or supply concerns.

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