· Event impact
Gold Enters Bear Market as Sticky Inflation Delays Fed Pivot
Transmission path
Higher real yields via 'higher-for-longer' Fed policy increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Market mechanism
Higher real yields via 'higher-for-longer' Fed policy increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
Extended read
The 25% decline in gold prices marks a significant shift in the macro regime. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment is dominating price action. With inflation holding at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain or even increase rates, making Treasury bonds more attractive than gold. Technical damage is severe as the metal breaks below long-term support levels established during the 2025 rally.
Exposed assets
NEM · GDX
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