· Event impact
SpaceX hits $2.8T valuation; lockup expiration looms as major retail risk
Transmission path
Equity price volatility via low-float technicals and impending supply shock from insider selling.
Market mechanism
Equity price volatility via low-float technicals and impending supply shock from insider selling.
Extended read
SpaceX's post-IPO surge has been amplified by its inclusion in major indices, forcing passive funds to buy into a very limited float. While the company's $75 billion in AI contracts provides a fundamental floor, the technical setup is precarious. Insiders will begin selling shares in August, with a massive 'Halloween' unlock on October 31. This staggered release of shares is expected to test the market's ability to absorb supply without significant price degradation.
Exposed assets
SPCX
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