DXY (US Dollar Index)
A weighted basket of USD vs six major currencies (EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%) — the standard USD benchmark.
Definition
DXY is a euro-heavy basket from the 1973 Bretton Woods era. It's not a true trade-weighted index (the Fed's broad dollar index serves that purpose), but it's the most-traded USD benchmark in liquid markets.
A rising DXY is generally risk-off for global assets, tightening dollar liquidity and pressuring EM.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceCompleted application: DXY (US Dollar Index)
DXY is a key cross-asset macro signal. Equity strategists, EM allocators, and commodity traders all watch it as a common factor.
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Release fact | A weighted basket of USD vs six major currencies (EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%) — the standard USD benchmark. | FX |
| Release fact | Q3 2022: DXY hit 114, a 20-year high, coincident with global equity drawdowns, EM debt selloffs, and gold weakness. The peak preceded the Q4 risk rally. | Published example |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
The relationship is conditional: another driver can dominate the same asset over the selected horizon.
- · The underlying observation changes materially.
- · The selected asset has no measurable exposure to this mechanism.
Do this in Market Ontology
- Treasury yield curve analysis from released dataTrack the US Treasury yield curve from FRED: 2s10s and 3m10y spreads, inversion history and what changes in slope have preceded.
- Track inflation from CPI, PCE and market breakevensMonitor US inflation from released data: CPI and core CPI, PCE, and 5- and 10-year breakevens, with what the next release needs to show.
- Track the US labor market from released dataFollow payrolls, unemployment, jobless claims and wage growth from FRED, with the Sahm rule reading and trend versus the prior year.
- Central bank policy analysisRead Federal Reserve policy from the funds rate, real rates and released statements, and compare the stance with inflation and labor data.
Why it matters
DXY is a key cross-asset macro signal. Equity strategists, EM allocators, and commodity traders all watch it as a common factor.
Worked example
Q3 2022: DXY hit 114, a 20-year high, coincident with global equity drawdowns, EM debt selloffs, and gold weakness. The peak preceded the Q4 risk rally.