Through which channels would an oil shock reach this portfolio?
Input costs, demand and financing: how an oil price move reaches each holding in a dated example book, with WTI from FRED and company figures from SEC filings.
Example as of 2026-10-07 (closing prices) · version 1 · eight real companies, illustrative share counts.
WTI crude was $96.24 on 2026-10-06, +54.0% from $62.49 on 2025-10-06. An oil shock reaches holdings through input costs, consumer demand, and financing conditions; the sign differs by company.
| Holding | Weight | Channel | Operating margin (FY) | Operating cash flow (FY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 19.2% | Demand: indirect, through consumer spending. | 32.0% | $111.48B |
| NVDA | 18.0% | Indirect: data-centre power costs and customer budgets. | 60.4% | $102.72B |
| MSFT | 15.1% | Indirect: little direct exposure. | 46.8% | $182.94B |
| JPM | 12.5% | Financing: credit quality of energy and transport borrowers; trading revenue. | Not reported | −$147.78B |
| DAL | 11.8% | Input cost: jet fuel is a primary operating cost; margins compress before fares adjust. | 9.2% | $8.34B |
| XOM | 10.9% | Revenue: realised prices rise with crude; a shock raises cash flow. | Not reported | $51.97B |
| PG | 7.0% | Input cost: resin and transport costs rise; pricing passes through with a lag. | 22.7% | $19.56B |
| HD | 5.4% | Demand: higher fuel prices reduce discretionary spending on home projects. | 12.7% | $16.32B |
The operating margin shows how much room each company has to absorb a cost increase before profit turns: a thin margin with fuel as a primary cost (an airline) has the least. Channel classifications are our stated reading of each business, not reported figures.
Assumptions
- Share counts are illustrative; prices are the 2026-10-07 close; weights use market value.
- Company figures are the latest annual 10-K values in SEC XBRL; "Not reported" means the company does not tag that figure.
- Scenario returns and oil channel classifications are stated assumptions, not estimates.
Sources
- FRED DGS10: 10-year Treasury yield · as of 2026-10-07
- FRED DCOILWTICO: WTI crude · as of 2026-10-06
- SEC 10-K AAPL 0000320193-25-000079 · FY ending 2025-09-27
- SEC 10-K MSFT 0001193125-26-323660 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K NVDA 0001045810-26-000021 · FY ending 2026-01-25
- SEC 10-K JPM 0001628280-26-008131 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K XOM 0000034088-26-000045 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K PG 0000080424-26-000103 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K HD 0001628280-26-019436 · FY ending 2026-02-01
- SEC 10-K DAL 0000027904-26-000013 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- Daily closes: Polygon.io grouped daily bars, 2026-10-07
Apply this to your holdings
One holding per line as ticker, shares, price (for example AAPL,25,336.67). Your holdings stay in this browser, carry through checkout and reopen in Capital Command. Market Ontology Desk.