When does new evidence justify changing a valuation model?
Growth, margin and share-count breaks between the two latest 10-K filings, shown on real companies, with the model assumption each one should change.
Example as of 2026-10-07 (closing prices) · version 1 · eight real companies, illustrative share counts.
Revisit a valuation when evidence changes an input, not when the price moves. We test three inputs between the two latest 10-Ks: revenue growth (≥10%), operating margin (≥2 pp) and diluted share count (≥1%).
| Holding | Input | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | growth | Revenue grew 65.5% year over year; a model carrying a steady single-digit growth rate needs a new base. |
| MSFT | growth | Revenue grew 17.8% year over year; a model carrying a steady single-digit growth rate needs a new base. |
| JPM | shares | Diluted shares fell 3.4%; per-share value changes even if enterprise value does not. |
| AAPL | shares | Diluted shares fell 2.6%; per-share value changes even if enterprise value does not. |
| PG | shares | Diluted shares fell 1.3%; per-share value changes even if enterprise value does not. |
| NVDA | shares | Diluted shares fell 1.2%; per-share value changes even if enterprise value does not. |
| NVDA | margin | Operating margin moved −2.0 pp (62.4% → 60.4%); the terminal margin assumption should be re-examined. |
Worked example: NVDA
| Thesis input | FY ending 2025-01-26 | FY ending 2026-01-25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $130.50B | $215.94B | 65.5% |
| Operating margin | 62.4% | 60.4% | -2.0 pp |
| Diluted shares | 24804M | 24514M | -1.2% |
Revenue grew 65.5% year over year; a model carrying a steady single-digit growth rate needs a new base. If the model still uses the prior year's input, its value is anchored to evidence that no longer holds.
Assumptions
- Share counts are illustrative; prices are the 2026-10-07 close; weights use market value.
- Company figures are the latest annual 10-K values in SEC XBRL; "Not reported" means the company does not tag that figure.
- Scenario returns and oil channel classifications are stated assumptions, not estimates.
Sources
- FRED DGS10: 10-year Treasury yield · as of 2026-10-07
- FRED DCOILWTICO: WTI crude · as of 2026-10-06
- SEC 10-K AAPL 0000320193-25-000079 · FY ending 2025-09-27
- SEC 10-K MSFT 0001193125-26-323660 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K NVDA 0001045810-26-000021 · FY ending 2026-01-25
- SEC 10-K JPM 0001628280-26-008131 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K XOM 0000034088-26-000045 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K PG 0000080424-26-000103 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K HD 0001628280-26-019436 · FY ending 2026-02-01
- SEC 10-K DAL 0000027904-26-000013 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- Daily closes: Polygon.io grouped daily bars, 2026-10-07
Apply this to your holdings
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