What would these scenarios cost this portfolio?
Calculate a hypothetical portfolio loss in dollars and percent, see each holding's contribution and resulting concentration, and download the result.
Example as of 2026-10-07 (closing prices) · version 1 · eight real companies, illustrative share counts.
Rates +100bp with multiple compression
Result: −$5,503 (-5.2%) on a $105,309 book. Assumed sector returns: Information technology -8% · Consumer discretionary -6% · Industrials (airline) -5% · Consumer staples -2% · Financials +1% · Energy -1%.
| Holding | Assumed return | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -8% | −$1,616 |
| NVDA | -8% | −$1,520 |
| MSFT | -8% | −$1,271 |
| DAL | -5% | −$622 |
| HD | -6% | −$343 |
| PG | -2% | −$148 |
| XOM | -1% | −$115 |
| JPM | +1% | $132 |
Oil +$25/bbl supply shock
Result: −$2,913 (-2.8%) on a $105,309 book. Assumed sector returns: Energy +12% · Industrials (airline) -15% · Consumer discretionary -5% · Consumer staples -3% · Information technology -3% · Financials -2%.
| Holding | Assumed return | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | -15% | −$1,867 |
| AAPL | -3% | −$606 |
| NVDA | -3% | −$570 |
| MSFT | -3% | −$477 |
| HD | -5% | −$286 |
| JPM | -2% | −$264 |
| PG | -3% | −$222 |
| XOM | +12% | $1,378 |
Broad equity drawdown (index −20%)
Result: −$24,886 (-23.6%) on a $105,309 book. Assumed sector returns: Information technology -26% · Consumer discretionary -24% · Industrials (airline) -28% · Financials -22% · Energy -18% · Consumer staples -10%.
| Holding | Assumed return | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -26% | −$5,252 |
| NVDA | -26% | −$4,939 |
| MSFT | -26% | −$4,132 |
| DAL | -28% | −$3,485 |
| JPM | -22% | −$2,900 |
| XOM | -18% | −$2,067 |
| HD | -24% | −$1,372 |
| PG | -10% | −$739 |
The sector returns are stated assumptions chosen to show transmission, not forecasts. Change them, and the holdings, to make the result yours.
Assumptions
- Share counts are illustrative; prices are the 2026-10-07 close; weights use market value.
- Company figures are the latest annual 10-K values in SEC XBRL; "Not reported" means the company does not tag that figure.
- Scenario returns and oil channel classifications are stated assumptions, not estimates.
Sources
- FRED DGS10: 10-year Treasury yield · as of 2026-10-07
- FRED DCOILWTICO: WTI crude · as of 2026-10-06
- SEC 10-K AAPL 0000320193-25-000079 · FY ending 2025-09-27
- SEC 10-K MSFT 0001193125-26-323660 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K NVDA 0001045810-26-000021 · FY ending 2026-01-25
- SEC 10-K JPM 0001628280-26-008131 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K XOM 0000034088-26-000045 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- SEC 10-K PG 0000080424-26-000103 · FY ending 2026-06-30
- SEC 10-K HD 0001628280-26-019436 · FY ending 2026-02-01
- SEC 10-K DAL 0000027904-26-000013 · FY ending 2025-12-31
- Daily closes: Polygon.io grouped daily bars, 2026-10-07
Calculator: your own values and assumptions
Holding-level scenario
Enter each holding’s current market value and your hypothetical return. Holdings stay in this browser until you choose to save the calculation.
| Holding | Type | Current value | Weight | Hypothetical return | P&L | Post-scenario concentration | Remove |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -$18,000 | 53.2% | ||||||
| -$3,000 | 34.2% | ||||||
| $0 | 12.7% |
Current value means present market value, not cost basis. The result is arithmetic on your assumptions, not a forecast. It excludes taxes, liquidity, path dependency, derivatives, short positions and liabilities.
Apply this to your holdings
One holding per line as ticker, shares, price (for example AAPL,25,336.67). Your holdings stay in this browser, carry through checkout and reopen in Capital Command. Market Ontology Desk.