Find the market consequence the headline doesn’t show.

Bring a market view, a company, or a position. Market Ontology traces it through the mechanism that connects it to current developments, and returns one supported conclusion with its evidence, what it depends on, and the expressions worth comparing. The first finding is free.

Start Desk $399/month Or analyze a view first — free

Bring a market view

What market, sector or name are you looking at?

Horizon

One input is enough. The first finding is free.

Worked case — example

The dislocation engine has no measured case available right now. Nothing is shown in its place.

Today's opportunity map

Opportunity Map

Ranked tradeable setups derived from live catalysts and their transmission to assets.

8 active·updated n/a

Score	Asset	Direction	Catalyst	Timeframe	Dislocation	Priced	Updated
78	UST 2Y	▲Bull	Fed Sept dot plot revision Monetary Policy · Rates Positioning	1 week	64	42%	n/a
74	USDJPY	▼Bear	BoJ JGB yield curve adjustment Monetary Policy · Fx Positioning	1 week	61	47%	n/a
71	BRENT	▲Bull	OPEC+ unplanned cut signal Geopolitical · Commodity Positioning	2 weeks	58	35%	n/a
69	UNG	▲Bull	US natgas storage surprise Supply Shock · Commodity Positioning	1 week	55	39%	n/a
66	XME	▲Bull	Section 232 tariff expansion Policy · Equity Positioning	1 month	52	28%	n/a
62	TSM	▼Bear	Taiwan strait shipping rerouting Geopolitical · Equity Positioning	2 weeks	49	41%	n/a
60	HYG	▼Bear	China property bond rollover Credit · Credit Positioning	2 weeks	44	31%	n/a
58	ASML	◆Vol+	EU AI Act Annex IV finalization Regulation · Vol Positioning	1 month	33	22%	n/a

78
UST 2Y▲Bulln/a
Fed Sept dot plot revision
Monetary Policy · Rates Positioning·1 week·Disloc 64·Priced 42%
74
USDJPY▼Bearn/a
BoJ JGB yield curve adjustment
Monetary Policy · Fx Positioning·1 week·Disloc 61·Priced 47%
71
BRENT▲Bulln/a
OPEC+ unplanned cut signal
Geopolitical · Commodity Positioning·2 weeks·Disloc 58·Priced 35%
69
UNG▲Bulln/a
US natgas storage surprise
Supply Shock · Commodity Positioning·1 week·Disloc 55·Priced 39%
66
XME▲Bulln/a
Section 232 tariff expansion
Policy · Equity Positioning·1 month·Disloc 52·Priced 28%
62
TSM▼Bearn/a
Taiwan strait shipping rerouting
Geopolitical · Equity Positioning·2 weeks·Disloc 49·Priced 41%
60
HYG▼Bearn/a
China property bond rollover
Credit · Credit Positioning·2 weeks·Disloc 44·Priced 31%
58
ASML◆Vol+n/a
EU AI Act Annex IV finalization
Regulation · Vol Positioning·1 month·Disloc 33·Priced 22%

Scan for a dislocation

What dislocation are you tracking?

Catalyst

Causal chain

Exposed assets

Strategy lane

Model evidence

Thesis

Alert

Pick a dislocation above to preview the mapping flow.

What you can do with the map

Trade

Event-driven options, FX/rates dislocations, commodity spreads, curve setups.

Hedge

Assets, sectors, books, or model assumptions exposed to the shock.

Allocate

Where capital may rotate as macro, policy, weather, or geopolitics reprice.

Arbitrage

Markets that have moved while related assets, spreads, or curves still lag.

Ignore

Filter shocks that lack transmission, confidence, or actionability.

Example: Oil shock → cross-asset arbitrage

Causal chain

01Hormuz blockade risk
02Oil supply pressure
03Crude futures repricing
04Inflation expectations
05Rates & breakevens
06FX impact
07Airline & transport equities
08Options volatility
09Commodity-pair & hedge workflows
10Saved thesis & alerts

Opportunity

Oil shock cross-asset dislocation

Strategy lanes

Commodity pair spread, FX dislocation, options volatility, equity sector pair, yield-curve sensitivity

Evidence

Causal chain active, spread above historical regime band, prior analogs found, central-bank reaction risk rising, weather & supply data updating

Next action

Save thesis, create alert, open strategy lane

Save thesis Create alert

Example modules

Arbitrage Radar

Scan cross-asset dislocations across options, FX, commodities, rates, yield curve, equities, credit, and statistical pairs.

·Dislocation type
·Asset classes
·Spread / price gap
·Catalyst driver
·Model score
·Historical analogs
·Time horizon
·Next catalyst

Causal Chain Map

Trace how a shock moves through markets, from physical or policy trigger to options strategy lane.

·Trigger event
·Macro channel
·Affected instruments
·Cross-asset spillover
·Volatility channel
·Strategy lane

Econometric Evidence

Validate the dislocation with model evidence.

·Spread z-score
·Cointegration status
·Regime filter
·Lag relationship
·Factor exposure
·Volatility regime
·Historical behavior
·Breakdown / reversion risk

Historical Analog Engine

Find prior conditions that resemble the current dislocation.

·Similar historical events
·Asset reactions
·Spread behavior
·Time-to-repricing
·Failed analogs
·Regime differences

Event & Alternative Data Layer

Connect non-price data to market dislocations.

·Weather
·Sentiment
·Legislation & bills passed
·Leader statements
·Central bank statements
·Policy stance
·Inflation & labor
·Fed balance sheet
·Political capital, lobbying, PAC flows
·Geopolitical events
·Capital flows

Strategy Lanes

Move from causal insight into specific arbitrage workflows.

·Options volatility dislocations
·Commodity pair spreads
·Currency dislocations
·Yield-curve strategies
·Statistical arbitrage
·Equity pair trades
·Credit / rates relative value
·Event-driven dislocations

Thesis & Alert Workflow

Every example ends with a saved object and alert rules.

·Catalyst & causal chain
·Asset exposure & strategy lane
·Model evidence & analog
·Entry & invalidation conditions
·Spread widen / revert alerts
·New bill, weather, CB, leader, sentiment triggers
·Macro release, FX, curve, commodity, vol triggers

Example inputs

Macro	Inflation, labor, GDP, Fed balance sheet, liquidity, financial conditions
Central banks	Statements, policy stance, rate path, balance-sheet language
Policy	Legislation, bills, regulation, agencies, political capital, lobbying, PAC flows
Geopolitics	Wars, sanctions, chokepoints, leader statements, country risk
Weather	Agriculture, power demand, LNG, shipping, energy, commodity supply
Sentiment	News & market sentiment, positioning, crowding, surprise
Markets	Options, commodities, FX, rates, credit, equities, sectors, ETFs

Opportunity workflows

Options plays from events

Macro or geopolitical catalyst → ticker → event window → structures → payoff & scenario context.

Commodity pair setups

Weather, sanctions, inventories, or supply bottleneck → spread → related equities & inflation channel.

FX / rates dislocations

Central-bank stance, inflation, liquidity, capital flows → currency pressure, curve setup, rate-sensitive assets.

Policy catalyst trades

Bill, regulation, agency action, lobbying, or leader statement → sectors, equities, options, hedges.

Portfolio / model impact

Shock → holdings affected → model assumptions exposed → scenario to run → review memo.

Find the next market gap to trade, hedge, allocate around, or monitor.

Start exploiting mispricings

Find the market consequence the headline doesn’t show.

Score

Asset

Direction

Catalyst

UST 2Y

▲Bull

Fed Sept dot plot revision

Monetary Policy · Rates Positioning

USDJPY

▼Bear

BoJ JGB yield curve adjustment

Monetary Policy · Fx Positioning

BRENT

▲Bull

OPEC+ unplanned cut signal

Geopolitical · Commodity Positioning

UNG

▲Bull

US natgas storage surprise

Supply Shock · Commodity Positioning

XME

▲Bull

Section 232 tariff expansion

Policy · Equity Positioning

TSM

▼Bear

Taiwan strait shipping rerouting

Geopolitical · Equity Positioning

HYG

▼Bear

China property bond rollover

Credit · Credit Positioning

ASML

◆Vol+

EU AI Act Annex IV finalization

Regulation · Vol Positioning

Macro

Inflation, labor, GDP, Fed balance sheet, liquidity, financial conditions

Central banks

Statements, policy stance, rate path, balance-sheet language

Policy

Legislation, bills, regulation, agencies, political capital, lobbying, PAC flows

Geopolitics

Wars, sanctions, chokepoints, leader statements, country risk

Weather

Agriculture, power demand, LNG, shipping, energy, commodity supply

Sentiment

News & market sentiment, positioning, crowding, surprise

Markets

Options, commodities, FX, rates, credit, equities, sectors, ETFs