Understand geopolitical risk in the context of your holdings

On Monday, multiple market reports said November Brent futures fell about 2% to around $101.7–102.1 a barrel, their lowest level in more than a week, as traders assessed the possibility of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran at the UN General Assembly and a partial recovery in Saudi Arabian shipments following recent Houthi attacks, even as Middle East conflict risk remained high.

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On Monday, spot gold was reported down about 0.1–0.5% near $4,355–4,372 an ounce, and US gold futures off around 0.3%, as investors took profits after last week’s rally and a firmer dollar weighed, even while market participants remained focused on the Middle East conflict and US–Iran tensions.

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On Monday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said that military authorities reported a commercial tanker conducting an inbound transit in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile, causing minor injuries to two crew, with the vessel continuing under its own power and no reported environmental impact as authorities investigate.

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On Monday, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said that in the event of renewed US attacks Iran would introduce new weapons with new capabilities and would change the geography of the war by striking locations not previously targeted, underscoring Tehran’s intent to escalate if hostilities resume.

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On Sunday, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which oversees the armed forces, issued a statement saying that any new US offensive would trigger unlimited retaliatory strikes against US bases and interests across the Middle East and that regional countries enabling US operations would be treated as complicit targets.

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US Central Command reported that as of September 20 its forces had redirected 109 commercial vessels as part of efforts to enforce Washington’s naval blockade on maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports, in a campaign revived in mid-July.

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The Fed's industrial production report showed total industrial output was flat in August, while manufacturing production declined 0.3% from the prior month.

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National diesel prices reached a record above $6.50 a gallon, with reporting citing the American Automobile Association and a national average of 6.505 dollars per gallon.

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Russian drones hit multiple civilian sites in Zaporizhzhia late on Sunday, wounding five people, according to officials cited Monday, while the Russian Defence Ministry said its overnight attacks targeted Ukrainian logistics hubs, warehouses and ports.

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The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces conducted their largest combined missile and drone strike package against strategic targets in Moscow Oblast on the night of September 19 to 20.

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Russian authorities said Ukrainian drones killed at least two people and damaged a refinery and residential buildings in the Moscow region on the final day of the State Duma election.

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The Russian Defence Ministry said it would intensify high-accuracy strikes against military targets in Kyiv after Ukraine's mass drone attacks on the Moscow region over the weekend.

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Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said on Sunday that Washington and some Middle Eastern countries could face 'painful' strikes if they make a mistake, according to Iranian media quoted by Xinhua and Reuters. The statement followed reports that the US is preparing to resume actions against Iran.

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Gulf shipping data cited by Reuters showed only a dozen commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, down from 35 the previous weekend, after Iran warned that the waterway would remain closed until US commitments are met. The development keeps Iraq's southern export route and regional oil flows in focus.

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Reuters reported that Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline prompted the company to increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz this month and next after halting some shipments via Yanbu.

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Reuters reported that Saudi crude exports have recovered to more than 4 million barrels per day so far in September, helped by higher volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz after disruptions to the East-West pipeline and Yanbu shipments.

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Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said on Sunday it had information the United States was preparing to resume attacks and warned any new strike would trigger sustained retaliation against US bases and interests in the region.

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The 8th APEC Human Resources Development Ministerial Meeting opened in Nanjing on Monday, with officials saying the agenda is to deepen practical cooperation on human resources and support inclusive and sustainable growth across the Asia-Pacific.

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Russian authorities said Ukrainian forces launched a large combined drone and missile attack on Moscow Oblast on the night of September 19 to 20, and Russian media described it as the largest of the war so far. The attack killed at least two people and damaged a major refinery, according to the cited reports.

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Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of September 19 to 20, in the absence of a Russian agreement to the energy ceasefire proposed by US President Donald Trump on September 14, according to ISW. The campaign adds pressure on Russian refinery capacity and export logistics.

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Houthi militants said they carried out drone and ballistic missile attacks on Riyadh, while other reports said the group has made rapid advances along Yemen's coast near the Bab al-Mandeb corridor. Reuters-based coverage said Washington warned the fighting could escalate rapidly after the strike on the Saudi capital.

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Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Sunday that mediators are exchanging proposals between Iran and the United States around the clock in an effort to revive negotiations. The remarks were reported by Reuters and republished by other outlets on Monday UTC.

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Russia's defense ministry said it will continue and intensify high-accuracy strikes against military targets in Kyiv after blaming Ukraine for the large drone attack on the Moscow region.

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Ukrainian forces carried out their largest combined missile and drone strike package against strategic targets in Moscow Oblast on the night of September 19 to 20, with the attack coming ahead of the final day of voting in Russia's State Duma elections.

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Russian officials said a major oil refinery in Moscow region was damaged during the overnight Ukrainian drone attack, and Bloomberg reported the facility was hit as Russia described the assault as its largest drone attack this year.

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Israeli artillery shelled southern Lebanon with phosphorus munitions, setting fields ablaze, while Lebanese state media said Merkava tanks advanced toward Deir Mimas and blocked a town entrance.

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The central bank governor said El Nino effects have exceeded expectations, cutting Peru's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.4% and lifting its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2%.

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Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index ended lower on Friday, with energy and industrial shares pressured as long-term borrowing costs increased, though the index still posted a weekly gain.

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Market coverage ahead of the fixing said China would set its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, and no contrary change was reported in the provided sources.

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South Korea said exports in the first 20 days of September rose 89.8% year on year on a working-day adjusted basis, with semiconductor exports surging 259% and the trade surplus nearing $23 billion.

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Iran's military warned on Sunday that any new U.S. attack would trigger sustained retaliation against U.S. bases and interests, according to state media reports cited by Reuters and other outlets.

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Reuters reported on Monday that Brent fell 81 cents to $103.06 and WTI fell 89 cents to $99.41 as investors assessed a recovery in Saudi shipments despite ongoing Middle East disruption.

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Reuters reported that attacks on Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline prompted the company to increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz this month and next, with Saudi oil moving through the strait averaging 2.9 million bpd over the past six days.

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The Financial Times reported that Russian ballistic missile strikes in September disabled Ukraine's three remaining major steel plants, including the Metinvest and ArcelorMittal plants in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, killing 17 workers.

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Ukrainian forces conducted their largest combined missile-and-drone strike package against strategic targets in Moscow Oblast and continued strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

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Russia's defence ministry said it would continue and intensify high-precision strikes on military targets in Kyiv after Ukraine launched waves of drones at the Moscow region on the final day of Russia's vote, killing at least two people.

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Russia said its air defenses shot down 1,951 attack drones and eight cruise missiles over the past day, while one Ukrainian cruise missile fell in a remote area after deviating from its flight path.

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Overnight Russian strikes on Sumy killed one woman and injured a man, and an educational building in the region was damaged, according to Ukraine's State Emergency Service.

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Lebanese state news agency NNA reported that Israeli warplanes launched new airstrikes across several areas in southern Lebanon amid violations of a US-mediated framework agreement.

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Houthi militants said they used ballistic and cruise missiles and drones against Yanbu and Riyadh, causing large fires at targeted sites, while Saudi reporting described the attack as a new escalation against the kingdom's energy and transport infrastructure.

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