Geopolitical risk, decomposed to the assets it actually reaches

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf said on 2026-08-18 that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States lifts the marine blockade and sanctions and frees frozen Iranian assets.

On 2026-08-18, President Donald Trump said there were no scheduled conversations with Iran and asserted that the Strait of Hormuz was open.

Syrian state media said on 2026-08-18 that an explosion hit a gas pipeline in Syria and described the incident as likely sabotage.

Iraqi authorities are considering a dinar redenomination measure, according to the 2026-08-18 report, as the country grapples with budget squeeze.

The UAE Defence Ministry said on 2026-08-18 that it identified two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, with one landing outside territorial waters and the other inside them.

On August 18, President Donald Trump stated on social media and in remarks reported by several outlets that there are no talks ongoing or scheduled with Iran, that the 60‑day memorandum‑based ceasefire which expired on August 17 will not be extended, and that the US naval blockade remains in full force even as he claimed the Strait of Hormuz is "open and operating."

On August 18, Brent crude futures rose to around $91.02 per barrel and WTI to about $84.94 per barrel, their highest levels since late July, as Iran adopted a more offensive military posture, declared Hormuz would remain closed under current conditions, and shipping data showed severely restricted crossings through the strait.

According to two regional officials cited on August 18, President Trump recently threatened potential military action against Oman if it proceeds with a cooperative agreement with Iran on managing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, expressing US disapproval of elements of a plan that would allow ships to transit via coordinated Iranian and Omani routes.

On August 18, UK Maritime Trade Operations received a report that a vessel outbound through the Strait of Hormuz in Omani waters was hit by an unknown projectile, damaging its engine room and resulting in a crew casualty, with the Omani Coast Guard assisting remaining crew and investigations under way.

The UAE defense ministry reported on August 18 that it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, assessing that they were targeting maritime traffic; both fell into the sea, with one reaching UAE waters, in the first such incident since a May strike on Fujairah port.

A report circulated on Aug. 18 said the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will expand the cross-border cash-pooling pilot nationwide effective Sept. 14, allowing multinationals to centralize foreign debt and overseas lending quotas.

Daiwa Institute of Research said in an August outlook that it raised Japan's FY2026 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.5%, while leaving its core CPI forecast unchanged at 2.4% for FY2026.

Ukrainian forces launched hundreds of drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight, with Russian authorities saying air defenses intercepted 791 drones across multiple regions, including annexed Crimea and the Black and Azov seas. AP described it as one of Ukraine's biggest drone attacks since the invasion began.

Russia's Defense Ministry said air defense units intercepted 791 Ukrainian drones overnight across Russian regions, annexed Crimea, and the Black and Azov seas. The scale of interceptions underscores continued pressure on Russian air-defense resources and domestic infrastructure.

Russian forces launched a missile strike on the village of Pechenihy in Kharkiv region at about 08:40 UTC and Ukrainian officials said at least 10 civilians were killed and 17 injured. The attack used two small cruise missiles known as Banderol, according to the regional prosecutor's office.

Reuters reported that Brent and WTI ended Tuesday at their highest since late July after Iran said it would adopt a more offensive stance and the U.S. ruled out extending a ceasefire agreement. The move reflected mounting concerns over supply risk through the Middle East.

Reuters reported that most Gulf stock markets were subdued in early trade on Tuesday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions kept investors cautious, while higher oil prices supported Saudi energy shares. Abu Dhabi Ports extended gains after a sharp prior-session rise.

Reuters said traders are increasingly contending with restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that could persist for months, and reported benchmark rates for very large crude carriers from the Middle East to China have surged sharply. The article said flows through the strait fell well below prewar levels.

A Syrian military source told Al Jazeera that Israeli warplanes targeted the main runway at Abu al-Duhur military airport with five missiles, causing significant material damage and no casualties.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. and Iran were neither talking nor scheduled to talk, while asserting the Strait of Hormuz was open and operating. The remarks came as he also said all water mines had been removed or detonated, underscoring a hardening U.S. posture toward negotiations and maritime access.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday that a vessel transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile, damaging the engine room and causing a crew casualty. The remaining crew were assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, and authorities said they were investigating the incident.

Reuters said Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week and has more tankers waiting to load as it offers spot heavy crude cargoes. The report indicates exporters are adapting operations rather than abandoning the route entirely.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Brent crude rose to $91.14 a barrel and WTI to $85.04 as a deal to end the Middle East war looked further away after Iran signaled a more offensive stance and the U.S. ruled out extending a ceasefire agreement. The price move reflected a higher perceived chance of disruption to regional energy exports.

Reuters reported that the U.S. dollar was near multi-month lows against most major currencies on Tuesday as traders walked back expectations of near-term monetary tightening, even as Middle East war worries kept sentiment fragile. Brent crude was also higher, linking the currency move to both rates and energy risk channels.

Ukraine said it attacked a rocket fuel plant in Russia's bordering Rostov region, targeting workshops that produce explosives and gunpowder. The strike is relevant for both defense production and industrial supply chains because it targets inputs used in military manufacturing.

Reports said Ukraine hit Russian ports, oil terminals and cargo ships in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and in occupied Sea of Azov ports. The attack directly threatens Russian export logistics and raises the risk of tighter flows through Black Sea energy corridors.

A report said at least 10 Russian regions have tightened control over petrol sales again after Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The move signals continuing stress in domestic fuel distribution and adds to evidence of localized supply disruption.

Ukraine mounted a large overnight drone attack on Moscow and surrounding areas, with Russian officials saying dozens or hundreds of drones were intercepted. The scale of the strike signals sustained Ukrainian capacity to hit high-value Russian infrastructure and pressure air-defense resources.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran will move to a 'fully offensive' military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Brent and WTI rose as a deal to end the Middle East war looked further out of sight, while ship-tracking data showed only five commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday.

Regional reporting said Israel struck Abu al-Duhur military airport in Syria on Tuesday, prompting condemnation from Washington.

US Central Command announced that the US Navy has turned away 64 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July, underscoring persistent shipping disruption risk around the key oil chokepoint.

Naftogaz said Russian drones and missiles attacked its facilities 13 times over the past week, causing serious damage to equipment and production capacity but no injuries. The company said Moscow has targeted its premises almost 300 times since the start of the year.

Russian and international media reported that Ukraine launched more than 600 drones overnight at Moscow and surrounding areas, in one of Kyiv's largest long-range attacks of the war. The attack was reported to have hit a Wildberries logistics facility near Moscow.

Yemen’s National Defence Council, representing the internationally recognised government, ordered an expansion of air and missile strikes against Houthi targets and vowed further retaliatory operations.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Brent crude climbed to about $91.14 and WTI to about $85.04 after Iran said it would take a more offensive posture and the U.S. ruled out extending the ceasefire agreement.

President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday that there were no talks or conversations with Iran and none were scheduled, while saying the Strait of Hormuz was open and that the naval blockade remained in force.

Reuters reported that the dollar was softer on Tuesday as traders assessed growing Iran war worries alongside dwindling U.S. rate-hike expectations.

Moody's reportedly lifted South Korea's 2025 growth forecast to 3.5% in a review confirmed on 18 August, citing a semiconductor boom expected to last at least through mid-2027. The same report projected 2.7% growth next year.

Traveloka said it released the inaugural Traveloka SEA Index, based on first-party booking and search data across Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.