Geopolitical risk, decomposed to the assets it actually reaches

Romanian Air Force F-16s shot down a drone that violated Romanian airspace on July 26, the third such incident in three days, according to President Nicușor Dan.

On July 25, Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian intelligence indicated Vladimir Putin is preparing conditions for expanding mobilization, as Russian losses this year have exceeded recruitment.

Ukraine’s General Staff said overnight on July 26 that Ukrainian forces struck a Chornomornaftogaz facility, Russian drone relay equipment, and a bridge in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Kyiv came under Russian missile attack early on July 26, with falling debris causing fires in at least three districts and damage in a central apartment block, while air defenses later lifted the alert.

Regional officials said on July 26 that Iran-Oman discussions in Tehran made progress on the Strait of Hormuz, while the US naval blockade against Iranian ports remained in place.

Russia’s largest online retailer Wildberries stopped displaying military-related goods in search results after Ukrainian strikes hit its warehouses, according to reports published on July 26.

Crude and product tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to a near standstill, according to shipping data and industry sources, after renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation in the Gulf sharply raised insurance costs and operational risk at the key chokepoint.

Saudi Arabia and Canada announced steps to chart a new chapter in their investment partnership, signaling Riyadh’s push to attract diversified foreign capital despite heightened regional security risks and oil‑market disruption.

The Saudi‑led coalition publicly stated that any renewed attempts by Yemen’s Houthi movement to target Saudi territory will be met with a response of "unprecedented force," reinforcing deterrence messaging amid continuing missile and drone threats in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden corridors.

In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF raised Egypt’s 2026 real GDP growth projection to 4.6% from 4.2%, even as it downgraded overall MENA growth to a 0.5% contraction due to the war‑related closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader trade disruptions.

Following fresh US airstrikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces, Iran’s armed forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states, further straining a fragile three‑week‑old ceasefire arrangement and widening the regional conflict theater.

Iranian officials stated that recent US airstrikes struck the perimeter of the Bushehr complex, which includes Iran’s only civilian nuclear power plant, as part of a broader new US strike package on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces amid the ongoing Iran–US conflict.

Jordan’s military reported intercepting eight missiles launched from Iran while the government announced that its airspace remains open and flight operations unchanged, underscoring both the direct spillover risk from the Iran–US confrontation and Amman’s effort to project stability for aviation and commerce.

Gaza civil defense and local media reported that recent Israeli attacks killed at least six to nine people, including a prominent Palestinian aid worker linked to Egypt’s main aid organisation, underscoring ongoing high‑intensity conflict in the enclave.[2][7][8]

Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles fired from Iran, while authorities stated that national airspace remains open and flight operations unchanged following the Iranian attacks on neighbouring states.[8][9]

Saudi Arabia joined other Arab states in formally condemning Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, signalling growing regional alignment against Tehran amid intensifying US‑Iran hostilities.[9]

In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF raised Egypt’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6% from 4.2%, while cutting the overall MENA region forecast to a -0.5% contraction due to war‑related disruptions and the partial closure of key shipping routes.[5]

An Iraqi government spokesperson said the United States has resumed cash shipments to Baghdad, reversing curbs that had pressured domestic dollar liquidity and contributed to parallel‑market volatility in the Iraqi dinar.[8]

Officials from Saudi Arabia and Canada announced a new chapter in their investment partnership aimed at expanding bilateral flows, including in key sectors aligned with Saudi Vision 2030.[8]

Iranian officials stated that fresh US strikes targeted the edge of the Bushehr nuclear plant area, while Iranian armed forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states following strikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces, breaking a three‑week‑old ceasefire.[2][8][9]

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill on Thursday as shipping risks spiked following renewed US airstrikes on Iran and retaliatory actions by Tehran, severely constraining the main chokepoint for Gulf crude and condensate exports.[2]

The IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update raised Egypt’s 2026 real GDP growth projection to 4.6% from 4.2%, even as it downgraded overall MENA 2026 growth by 1.6 percentage points to -0.5% due to the war‑related closure of the Strait of Hormuz and regional shipping disruptions, underscoring Egypt’s relative resilience.

Large crowds gathered in southern Beirut to mourn Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Khamenei as Hezbollah’s leader used the event to reiterate vows to continue fighting Israel, underlining the risk of further cross‑border escalation along the Israel‑Lebanon frontier.

Israeli airstrikes in Gaza this week killed a senior Palestinian member of Egypt’s primary aid organisation who had coordinated public World Cup screenings, with Gaza civil defense also reporting at least six deaths from ongoing Israeli attacks, highlighting persistent conflict despite wider regional escalation with Iran.

Tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz were reported at a near standstill after the U.S. carried out renewed airstrikes on Iran, prompting Iranian armed forces to launch attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states, raising fears over sustained disruption at a chokepoint that previously carried about one‑fifth of global oil flows.

Following new U.S. strikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces, Iranian armed forces launched attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states, further straining a fragile three‑week‑old ceasefire and heightening risk of broader regional escalation across the Gulf littoral.

Russian authorities reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on Belgorod near the Ukrainian border injured at least 12 people including two children, while officials in Moscow‑occupied Horlivka said four people were killed in a separate Ukrainian strike, adding to rising civilian casualties inside Russia.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces hit a Chornomornaftogaz energy facility, relay equipment used to control Russian strike drones in occupied Crimea, and a logistics bridge in occupied Donetsk overnight, marking another wave of attacks on Russian energy and military infrastructure.

Ukrainian data cited in international reporting indicate that this month Russian attacks have killed at least 377 civilians and injured over 2,100, making it the deadliest period since April 2022, with Russia employing nearly 1,700 drones, more than 1,630 guided munitions and over 50 ballistic missiles in the last week and repeatedly striking Kyiv and other major cities.

Over the weekend Russian forces launched a large wave of attacks on Ukraine, including at least seven ballistic missiles and 136 drones targeting Kyiv and multiple regions; a drone strike on a supermarket in Chernihiv killed two people including a child and wounded 25, while additional strikes hit Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, with Ukraine continuing retaliatory drone attacks on Russian territory and energy infrastructure.

In a July 25 address, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian intelligence indicates President Putin is preparing conditions for expanded mobilization, noting Russian losses this year exceed recruitment, and claimed Russia is preparing to receive around 30,000 North Korean troops to bolster its forces in Ukraine.

In the early hours of July 26, Russian forces conducted a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv, with falling debris triggering fires in at least three districts and additional bombardments reported in other regions, following prior warnings from President Zelensky of imminent large-scale attacks.

On July 25, Ukraine conducted an attack on a vessel in the Caspian Sea carrying Iran-linked military cargo reportedly used by Russia to move sanctioned supplies, killing at least one sailor and prompting Tehran to summon Ukrainian diplomats while Zelensky accused Moscow of assisting Iran’s Middle East campaign.

In a July 25 address, President Zelensky stated that Russian losses in 2026 now exceed enlistment figures and claimed, citing Ukrainian intelligence, that Moscow is preparing conditions for expanded mobilization and plans to receive around 30,000 North Korean troops to reinforce its war effort.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported on July 26 that Ukrainian forces struck a Chornomornaftogaz energy facility in Russian-occupied Crimea, along with relay equipment used to control Russian strike drones and a logistics bridge in occupied Donetsk, targeting Russian military and energy-linked infrastructure.

China’s IMF growth upgrade for 2026–2027 and evidence of record first-half BRI investment and construction deals, including large green energy projects, provide a macro and capex tailwind for Hong Kong-listed Chinese infrastructure and financial stocks.[3][10]

AMRO’s July 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook raised the region’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1% from 4.0%, citing stronger global AI demand, which is supportive for Korea’s semiconductor-heavy export profile.[1]

The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% but raised China’s growth outlook to 4.6% for 2026 and 4.1% for 2027, making China one of the few major economies with an upward revision, which supports sentiment on Chinese cyclicals and RMB assets.[10]

Japan’s June services producer price index increased 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.4% consensus estimate, adding to evidence of underlying services inflation but with a mild downside surprise versus expectations.[9]

The ASEAN+3 growth forecast revision to 4.1% for 2026 is explicitly linked to stronger global AI demand, reinforcing expectations of sustained orders for Taiwan’s advanced foundry and packaging capacity.[1]