Geopolitical risk
Understand geopolitical risk in the context of your holdings
Examine how conflict, sanctions, trade restrictions, and other geopolitical developments could reach the assets you own. Inspect the sources, the transmission mechanism, and the conditions that would change the assessment.
Current geopolitical risks
Browse published risk records by geography and transmission channel. Open a record to inspect its evidence and the assets connected to it.
Egypt tourist arrivals rise in first half of 2026 despite regional slowdown
Middle East / North AfricaEgypt received 3% more international tourists in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025, even as UN Tourism said arrivals in the Middle East declined in the second quarter.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsYemen government forces and Houthi militants intensify fighting in Lahj and Taiz
Middle East / North AfricaFighting has intensified between Yemen government forces and Houthi militants in the southwestern provinces of Lahj and Taiz, while Saudi and Emirati officials held a meeting to discuss the situation.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian Revolutionary Guards challenge US claims that Hormuz leverage has weakened as September oil flows recover
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusAn Iranian Revolutionary Guards letter said U.S. claims that Iran had lost most of its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz were misleading. Kpler data cited in the report indicated September exports through the strait were set to reach nearly 10 million barrels per day, about half the pre-war level, as some tanker traffic recovered despite the conflict.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsChina's underlying inflation accelerates to 2.6% in August as September PMI stays in expansion
East AsiaBNP Paribas said China's CPI excluding fresh food and special factors rose to 2.6% year on year in August from 2.3% in July, while the Composite PMI fell slightly to 52.5 in September, marking an 18th straight month of expansion.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsTrump denies offering Iran sanctions relief as US and Iranian officials hold mediated talks
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusPresident Donald Trump said the United States had offered Iran nothing to end the war, while officials from both countries separately engaged with mediators over an amended seven-day ceasefire proposal. The proposal reportedly links a halt to hostilities and sanctions relief with Iran’s phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the conflicting public accounts leave the terms unresolved.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsRussia launches ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones at Kyiv in overnight attack
Eastern EuropeUkrainian air defenses intercepted all missiles and more than 100 drones in the latest overnight strike on the capital, while local authorities reported damage to civilian infrastructure including an educational institution and clinic. The attack is part of a broader Russian campaign against Ukrainian cities and energy assets.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsUkraine's 3rd Army Corps says it liberates villages in the Lyman sector
Eastern EuropeUkraine's 3rd Army Corps publicized new video and operational details showing Russian forces driven out of Katerynivka, Nove, Ridkodub and Novomykhailivka north of Lyman. The corps said the liberated area under Operation Vivaldi had reached 176 square kilometers.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsUkraine strikes Russian Kasta radar, drone command posts and ammunition depots in occupied territories
Eastern EuropeUkraine's General Staff said forces struck a Russian Kasta radar station, drone command posts, ammunition depots and a logistics depot across occupied Luhansk, Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions on the night of September 28-29. The strikes also targeted Russian UAV operations and materiel hubs used by frontline units.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian forces target ships using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, local media reports
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusFars news agency reported that Iranian forces targeted ships using unauthorized routes through the waterway. The available reporting did not establish the vessel identities, damage or casualties, so the incident is treated as a reported shipping-security development rather than a confirmed vessel loss.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsEgypt prepares to host African leaders at a business summit amid GERD dispute
Middle East / North AfricaFrance 24 reported that African leaders are gathering in Egypt for a business summit against the backdrop of the unresolved $5 billion dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIsraeli military sets off large explosion in south Lebanon's Mansouri village
Middle East / North AfricaThe Israeli military set off a significant explosion in the southern Lebanese village of al-Mansouri on Monday, with Lebanese state media and AFP correspondents reporting the blast and Israel saying it had completed an operation in the area.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIran’s rial falls past 2.5 million per dollar as US pressure squeezes the economy
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusIran’s free-market dollar rate rose above 2.5 million rials on September 29, after reaching a record 2.418 million rials the previous day.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsUS-Iran contacts continue through mediators as Tehran and Washington dispute terms of a possible deal
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusUS and Iranian officials remained in contact through mediators over an amended seven-day proposal involving the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets and nuclear negotiations; President Trump denied offering sanctions relief or releasing frozen funds.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsChina signals new measures to support the economy and stabilise the property market
East AsiaChinese authorities said they will introduce new measures to support the economy and study policies to stabilise the property market, extending policy support to a sector still under pressure.[17]
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsJapan's core inflation rises to 2.6% in August as the Composite PMI stays above 50
East AsiaJapan's underlying CPI excluding fresh food and special factors rose to 2.6% y/y in August from 2.3% in July, and the September Composite PMI remained in expansion at 52.5.[1]
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsChina's underlying inflation quickens and September factory activity stays in expansion
East AsiaChina's underlying CPI rose to 2.6% y/y in August from 2.3% in July, while the Composite PMI remained in expansion for an 18th straight month at 52.5 in September.[1]
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsSamsung Electro-Mechanics announces 6.78 trillion won investment in AI chip substrates
East AsiaSamsung Electro-Mechanics said it will invest 6.78 trillion won in AI chip substrates, reinforcing a domestic semiconductor supply-chain build-out.[6]
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian Revolutionary Guards challenge US claims that the Strait of Hormuz is open
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusA Revolutionary Guards official said that limited tanker movements under US protection did not constitute a reopening of the Strait. Kpler data cited in the report showed September oil exports through Hormuz recovering to almost 10 million barrels per day, approximately half the pre-war volume.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsRussian missiles and drones hit Kyiv educational and health facilities in overnight assault
Eastern EuropeRussian strikes damaged an educational facility in Kyiv and a clinic, while Ukrainian authorities said the attacks were part of a multi-day bombardment of the capital.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsMost Gulf stock markets end lower as investors weigh renewed US-Iran peace efforts and shipping disruption
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusMost Gulf equity markets ended lower on September 29 as investors assessed renewed diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran alongside subdued Hormuz shipping and continuing maritime disruption.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian Revolutionary Guards spokesperson challenges US claims that Washington has weakened Tehran’s Hormuz leverage
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusA Revolutionary Guards spokesperson accused President Trump of misrepresenting the effectiveness of Iran’s energy blockade and argued that limited US-protected tanker movements did not amount to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed September exports through Hormuz recovering to almost 10 million barrels per day, about half their pre-war level.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsEgypt hosts African leaders for inaugural Alamein Africa Forum in push to court investment
Middle East / North AfricaAFP reported that African leaders are gathering in Egypt for a business summit as Cairo seeks to reassert itself in Africa amid competition from China and Gulf states.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIsraeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanese village of Mansouri
Middle East / North AfricaLebanese state media and AFP correspondents said the Israeli military set off a significant explosion in the southern Lebanese village of al-Mansouri on Monday, with Israel saying it had completed an operation in the area.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Qatar will convey new Hormuz proposals to Washington
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusForeign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian proposals discussed with Qatari mediators would be presented to the United States and that Tehran expected a formal U.S. response on Tuesday. The proposals concern Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsBrent crude rises above $99 as conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements keep Hormuz supply risk elevated
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusBrent futures for December delivery rose 1.6% to $99.42 a barrel at 0659 GMT from a $97.83 previous close. The move followed conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements over diplomacy and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsSouth Korean exports are forecast to rise for a 16th month on AI chip demand
East AsiaEconomists surveyed by Reuters on 29 September expected South Korea's September exports to jump 62.0% from a year earlier, extending a streak of annual gains since June 2025 and pointing to another record monthly trade surplus.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsSouth Korea's September trade surplus is projected to hit a record as imports and exports both surge
East AsiaReuters reported economists expected September imports to rise 21.5% and the trade surplus to reach $38.15 billion, after August exports rose 68.7%, underscoring a powerful trade impulse.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsChina's economy slows to 4.3% in Q2 as investment and housing weakness deepen
East AsiaBBVA Research said China slowed to 4.3% growth in Q2 2026, with fixed-asset investment contracting 7.2% through August and real-estate investment down 19.2%, while consumer prices remained soft at 0.8%.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsChina signals fresh measures to support the economy and stabilize the property market
East AsiaBusiness Times reported on 29 September that Beijing gave its strongest signal yet that it will move with greater urgency to counter the slowdown, promising new measures to support the economy and study policies to stabilize the reeling property market.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsIranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready for nuclear talks but rejects coercion
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusPresident Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was prepared to negotiate over its nuclear program and other issues, while rejecting what he described as bullying or coercion. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi separately said reopening the Strait of Hormuz was conditional on Iran's requirements being met.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsTrump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds as mediated contacts resume
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusPresident Donald Trump said he had offered Iran nothing, rejecting reports that Washington was prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete nuclear concessions. Reuters also reported that US and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators on September 28 in a renewed effort to end the seven-month war. The conflicting public accounts leave the terms and prospects of any agreement unresolved.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsBangladesh and India advance to the Asian Games semifinals after rain washes out cricket quarter-finals
South & Southeast AsiaRain forced the abandonment of both men's cricket quarter-finals at the Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games, sending higher-ranked Sri Lanka and Bangladesh into the semi-finals without a ball being bowled.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsVietnam launches a national AI strategy to attract investment and expand domestic capability
South & Southeast AsiaVietnam launched a new national AI strategy aimed at building domestic capability while attracting investment and partnerships from major international technology firms, with targets for AI-related exports and GDP contribution by 2030.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsUS President Donald Trump says Washington will win the Iran war soon after officials speak with mediators
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusTrump said on September 28 that US officials had spoken with mediators seeking to end the war and that the United States would win the conflict soon. The statement maintains a forceful US posture while diplomatic contacts continue.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsOil rises while gold drops as Middle East risk lifts inflation and dollar expectations
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusUS crude settled at $92.60 a barrel and Brent at $105.28 on September 28, while spot gold fell about 3.6% to around $4,131.53. Reuters attributed the cross-asset move to higher oil, a firmer dollar and Treasury yields, which increased expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsSaudi Aramco considers discounts for Oman-loaded crude as Gulf freight costs reach records
US-Iran / Hormuz FocusPeople familiar with the matter said Saudi Aramco was considering discounts on official selling prices for oil loaded off Oman to compensate buyers for record freight rates. The measure reflects the commercial impact of constrained Gulf shipping routes.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsU.S. mortgage rates rise above 7% for the first time since January 2025
North AmericaThe average long-term U.S. mortgage rate rose above 7% this week, marking the first such move since January 2025 and adding to affordability pressure for prospective homebuyers.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsStatistics Canada says Canada’s economy stalled in July as manufacturing and mining weakened
North AmericaStatistics Canada reported that Canadian GDP was flat in July, with declines in manufacturing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas offset by gains in utilities and construction.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsHungary keeps pressing for continued Russian oil flows through the Druzhba corridor
Eastern EuropeHungary reiterated its reliance on the Druzhba pipeline corridor as markets continue to watch Eastern European energy transit and sanctions risk.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsRussian forces hit Kyiv's National Academy of Sciences in daytime strikes, killing at least two people
Eastern EuropeRussian drone and missile strikes hit the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv on Sept. 28 and then continued into Sept. 29, according to multiple reports, with at least two people killed at the institution and more casualties reported across the city.
Assessment limitation: This record identifies a proposed exposure path, not the probability, size, or direction of a realized return.
Investigate this risk against my holdingsWhat is geopolitical risk?
Geopolitical risk concerns conflict, terrorism, and tensions between states, including the possibility that an event occurs or an existing conflict escalates.
For investment research, the next step is to examine the economic and financial relationships through which a development could affect particular assets. Source: Federal Reserve geopolitical-risk research.
How can geopolitical risk affect a portfolio?
The effect depends on the event, the assets, and the assumptions behind the assessment.
| Channel | What to investigate |
|---|---|
| Energy and physical supply | Production, transport routes, input costs, and exposure to producers or consumers |
| Trade and restrictions | Tariffs, sanctions, export controls, customers, suppliers, and market access |
| Financing and currencies | Funding conditions, currency mismatches, cross-border capital flows, and refinancing needs |
| Demand and confidence | Changes in spending, investment, business activity, and investors’ willingness to bear risk |
These channels are consistent with the IMF Global Financial Stability Report.
Turn a risk into a research task
- 1. Add your holdings. Establish the positions you want to assess.
- 2. Review the connections. Inspect how a risk could reach those positions and where the evidence remains incomplete.
- 3. Follow the conditions. Save the assessment and monitor the developments that would change it.
What does the Geopolitical Risk Index tell me?
The Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index tracks newspaper coverage of geopolitical threats and actions. It provides context about geopolitical concerns. Applying that context to a portfolio requires additional analysis of companies, industries, countries, and financial relationships.
Does an exposure assessment predict what a holding will return?
It identifies relevant relationships and assumptions. The size and direction of a realized market move depend on what happens, what markets already expected, and other developments.
Need to test a relationship quantitatively?
Desk adds econometric research and API access. Inspect the study design, data, estimates, and limitations before applying a result.
Methodology
Channel separation. Physical channels are constraints on the movement or production of a good. Policy channels are legal constraints on who may transact. They are recorded separately because they resolve on different clocks and a portfolio can be exposed to one without the other.
Asset path. A path is only published when each step is observable: the risk changes a named variable, that variable enters a named instrument's cash flows or discount rate, and the instrument is identifiable. Paths that stop at sentiment are not published.
Model version. Every record carries the version of the decomposition model that produced it, so a change in output can be attributed to a change in method rather than a change in the world.
Limits. These are exposure decompositions, not forecasts. A record describes where a risk would transmit if it escalates; it assigns no probability to escalation.