Investment case
Aurora Cannabis Inc.
ACB · 2 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-02
Market Ontology has mapped 2 macro, policy, and market developments to Aurora Cannabis Inc. since 2026-08-18. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for ACB yet, so no modelled value is shown. The ACB valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run ACB on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. to Acquire Aurora Cannabis Inc.
Direct target of an acquisition offer at a significant premium.
· Moves probability of deal completion, implied valuation per share
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-02Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. to Acquire Aurora Cannabis Inc.
- 2026-08-18Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. to Acquire Aurora Cannabis Inc.
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Margin | Bearish | Curaleaf reports Aurora's adjusted EBITDA declined 78% over the last four quarters. | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-16 | Revenue | Bearish | Curaleaf reports Aurora's net revenue declined 14% over the last four quarters. | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-02 | Revenue | Bearish | Management guidance cited by Curaleaf calls for fiscal 2027 revenue to return to approximately fiscal 2025 levels. | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-02 | Margin | Bearish | Curaleaf highlights that Aurora's own guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA to decline precipitously from fiscal 2026. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-12 | Valuation multiple | Bullish | Target re-rates to bid premium until close. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. to Acquire Aurora Cannabis Inc. | Bullish | 1-5d | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-18 | Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. to Acquire Aurora Cannabis Inc. | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |