Investment case
Ares Capital Corporation
ARCC · 27 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 27 macro, policy, and market developments to Ares Capital Corporation since 2026-08-20. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for ARCC yet, so no modelled value is shown. The ARCC valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run ARCC on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
Direct impact on net interest income due to asset-liability mismatch in a rising rate environment.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), dividend payout sustainability, earnings per share growth
- Main threat
Houlihan Lokey flags rising credit stress concentrated in small direct lending
Increased credit defaults and restructuring requests among portfolio companies, potentially leading to non-accruals, write-downs, and reduced dividend capacity.
· Moves net investment income growth, non accrual rate, dividend payout ratio
- Open question
Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
Direct impact on net interest income due to floating-rate asset exposure vs. funding costs, and potential increase in credit risk for borrowers.
· Moves net investment income (nii) growth, credit loss provisions, dividend sustainability
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate debt asset exposure post Fed rate hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate credit portfolio following Fed rate hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
- 2026-09-28Fed 25bp Rate Increase Reprices Floating-Rate Private Credit Yields
- 2026-09-28Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags rising credit stress concentrated in small direct lending
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate credit portfolio following Fed rate hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds | mixed | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.23% as Hawkish Fed Posture Extends | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate debt asset exposure post Fed rate hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Fed 25bp Rate Increase Reprices Floating-Rate Private Credit Yields | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury yield reaches 5.23% following 25bp Fed hike and hawkish guidance | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-15 | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. Explores Strategic Alternatives | watch | 1-3m | 0.30 |