Investment case
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML · 107 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-29
Market Ontology has mapped 107 macro, policy, and market developments to ASML Holding N.V. since 2026-08-11. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for ASML yet, so no modelled value is shown. The ASML valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run ASML on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
ASML Q3 Forecast Projects 96.4% EPS and 50.0% Revenue Growth Ahead of Oct 14
Direct financial performance exceeding expectations, signaling strong demand for lithography equipment.
· Moves revenue growth rate, eps growth rate, profit margins
- Main threat
Semiconductor complex drops sharply as AI leaders call for development slowdown
Second-order effect: Reduced capital expenditure by semiconductor manufacturers due to lower demand forecasts for AI chips.
· Moves order book growth, customer capital expenditure cycles, long term growth rate
- Open question
Micron Approaches Fiscal Q4 Release as AI Memory Supercycle Scrutiny Grows
Second-order effect: Micron's commentary on memory capex and future demand for advanced lithography tools.
· Moves order book growth, revenue growth rate (long term), capital expenditure outlook for memory customers
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-19TSMC forecasted for 52% EPS and 38% revenue growth on leading-edge node demand
- 2026-09-29Broadcom Targets $58B in FY26 AI Revenue as ASIC Adoption Accelerates
- 2026-09-18Nvidia Reaffirms $3T-$4T AI Infrastructure Spend as Vera Rubin Architecture Enters Full Run
- 2026-09-26Micron Trades at $1,086 on AI HBM Demand Amid CXMT Capacity Expansion
- 2026-09-28Micron fiscal Q4 preview highlights AI DRAM and NAND demand supercycle
- 2026-09-28Micron Approaches Fiscal Q4 Release as AI Memory Supercycle Scrutiny Grows
- 2026-09-15Semiconductor complex drops sharply as AI leaders call for development slowdown
- 2026-09-25TSMC maintains 72.5% fabrication share with $265B Arizona capex pipeline
- 2026-09-25TSMC Advances $265B Arizona Manufacturing Buildout Across Advanced Node Fabs
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Revenue | Bullish | Consensus expectations for Q3 project a 49.99% revenue increase driven by EUV tool adoption. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-12 | Revenue | Bearish | Market share erosion in legacy DUV nodes due to Chinese domestic competition. | 0.85 |
| 2026-08-12 | Revenue | Bearish | China revenue share dropped from 41% to 16% due to domestic substitution and export controls. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | Loss of market share in DUV segment to Chinese state-backed competitors and 25-percentage-point drop in China revenue share. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | Loss of DUV market share in China due to domestic competition and self-sufficiency. | 0.85 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | China revenue share dropped from 41% to 16% due to domestic DUV competition and import substitution. | 0.95 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | Long-term revenue erosion in the mature-node segment via Chinese import substitution threatening 16% of revenue. | 0.85 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | China revenue share collapsed from 41% to 16% due to domestic Chinese DUV competition and import substitution. | 0.95 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bearish | Loss of Chinese DUV market share to domestic competitors; China revenue share reported to have dropped from 41% to 16%. | 0.95 |
| 2026-08-10 | Revenue | Bearish | Strategic competition and supply-chain controls impacting semiconductor equipment foundries and EDA tools. | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-06 | Revenue | Bearish | US Treasury exploring targeted sanctions and further adjustments to export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. | 0.80 |
| 2026-07-28 | Share count | Bearish | Long-term market share erosion in mature node segment due to Chinese DUV breakthrough. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Broadcom Targets $58B in FY26 AI Revenue as ASIC Adoption Accelerates | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-28 | Micron fiscal Q4 preview highlights AI DRAM and NAND demand supercycle | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-28 | Micron Approaches Fiscal Q4 Release as AI Memory Supercycle Scrutiny Grows | watch | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-27 | Micron Faces Q4 Earnings Test as Investors Debate Memory Supercycle Longevity | watch | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-27 | Micron heads into fiscal Q4 earnings with market focused on DRAM and NAND cycle duration | watch | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-27 | Micron Fiscal Q4 Setup Focuses on HBM Demand and Memory Cycle Longevity | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-26 | Micron Trades at $1,086 on AI HBM Demand Amid CXMT Capacity Expansion | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-25 | TSMC maintains 72.5% fabrication share with $265B Arizona capex pipeline | Bullish | 1-5y | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-25 | TSMC Advances $265B Arizona Manufacturing Buildout Across Advanced Node Fabs | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-25 | TSMC advances $265B Arizona capex footprint holding 72.5% fabrication share | Bullish | 1-5y | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-24 | Trio-Tech Reports 72% Fiscal 2026 Revenue Growth and $24.2 Million Backlog | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-24 | Zacks: Tech leads Q3 earnings growth; semiconductor exposure concentrated in leaders | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |