Investment case
Bank of America Corporation
BAC · 116 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-29
Market Ontology has mapped 116 macro, policy, and market developments to Bank of America Corporation since 2026-08-11. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for BAC yet, so no modelled value is shown. The BAC valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run BAC on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Surging yields test bank deposit betas as BAC checking franchise anchors funding cost
Strong core deposit franchise provides stable, low-cost funding, insulating net interest margin from rising wholesale funding costs.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), cost of funds, deposit beta
- Open question
U.S. National Debt Tops $40 Trillion as Annual Interest Outlays Hit $1.25 Trillion
Similar to JPM, BAC benefits from Treasury issuance as a primary dealer. However, prolonged high rates and fiscal concerns could weigh on economic growth, impacting consumer and commercial lending.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), loan growth rates, credit loss provisions
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-17August CPI At 3.4% Backs 90% Market Odds For Quarter-Point Fed Hike
- 2026-09-29Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal Sparking Energy Spike and Multi-Decade High Yields
- 2026-09-2810-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.23% on Hawkish Fed Policy Signaling
- 2026-09-28Fed 25bp Rate Increase Reprices Floating-Rate Private Credit Yields
- 2026-09-28U.S. National Debt Tops $40 Trillion as Annual Interest Outlays Hit $1.25 Trillion
- 2026-09-29Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month
- 2026-09-2110-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.0% Against 1.1% S&P 500 Dividend Yield
- 2026-09-21Fed Chair Warsh Leads FOMC to Hike Policy Rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%
- 2026-09-28Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads
- 2026-09-2030-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High, Aiding Life Insurer Reinvestment
- 2026-09-21FOMC raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh
- 2026-09-20Annaly Capital falls 8.5% over past month as mortgage REIT spreads face rate headwinds
- 2026-09-18Fed Raises Target Rate 25bp to 3.75-4.00% as 10Y Yields Approach 5.0%
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Share count | Bearish | Repurchase reduces shares outstanding. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-14 | Working capital | Bearish | Cash dividend reduces cash on hand. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Yields Hit 2002 Highs After Iran Deal Rejection Drives Oil Spike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-29 | Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal Sparking Energy Spike and Multi-Decade High Yields | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-29 | Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month | mixed | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.23% on Hawkish Fed Policy Signaling | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-28 | U.S. National Debt Tops $40 Trillion as Annual Interest Outlays Hit $1.25 Trillion | mixed | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Fed 25bp Rate Increase Reprices Floating-Rate Private Credit Yields | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-28 | Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | Federal Home Loan Bank of Topeka Declares Third Quarter Dividends | watch | 3-12m | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-25 | Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Hathaway Chairman; Howard Buffett Assumes Role | watch | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-25 | Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman; Howard Buffett Assumes Role | watch | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-24 | SoftBank prices $11.14 billion multi-currency senior notes offering | Bullish | 1-5d | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-23 | Large-Cap Banks Slide Over 3% as Markets Position for Q3 Earnings Releases | watch | 1-5d | 0.50 |