Investment case
CME Group Inc.
CME · 24 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 24 macro, policy, and market developments to CME Group Inc. since 2026-08-12. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for CME yet, so no modelled value is shown. The CME valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run CME on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation Pressures
Increased market volatility and trading volumes in interest rate futures and options due to uncertainty around Fed policy.
· Moves revenue growth rate, operating leverage
- Main threat
September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Weak Jobs Report
Reduced interest rate volatility and trading volume in interest rate futures.
· Moves future trading volumes, fee income per trade
- Open question
QuoMarkets Launches Weekend Gold Trading Instrument GOLD247 for 7-Day Access
Increased competition in gold derivatives/trading, potential for market share shifts, but also overall market growth.
· Moves future revenue growth rate, market share assumptions
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-23October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation Pressures
- 2026-09-22Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% citing timelier inflation target
- 2026-09-20Fed raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh
- 2026-09-07Fed Hike Probability Climbs to 60.4% as Warsh Targets 4.2% Inflation
- 2026-09-05QuoMarkets Launches Weekend Gold Trading as Off-Hours Hedging Demand Accelerates
- 2026-09-05QuoMarkets Launches Weekend Gold Trading Instrument GOLD247 for 7-Day Access
- 2026-08-14September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After Weak Jobs Report
- 2026-08-14September Fed Rate Hike Probability Drops to 44% After Jobs Miss
- 2026-08-13September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Job Losses
- 2026-08-13September Fed Hike Odds Drop to 44% After Disappointing July Jobs Report
- 2026-08-13September Rate Hike Odds Plunge to 44% After July Jobs Loss
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Share count | Bearish | Repurchase reduces shares outstanding. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-17 | Net debt | Bearish | Liability-management transactions often reduce gross debt or push maturities out. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-17 | Interest expense | Bearish | Tender/exchange extends maturity profile and typically lowers near-term interest expense. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. prices $2.4B IPO | mixed | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-24 | AtlasClear FY2026 Revenue Rises 85% to $20.1M Driven by Stock Locate Volume | watch | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-23 | October Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 57.6% on Tariff and Energy Inflation Pressures | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-22 | Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% citing timelier inflation target | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-20 | Fed raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-19 | Bunge Increases Viterra Cost-Synergy Target to $350M Amid Oilseed Processing Strength | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-19 | Bunge lifts Viterra cost-synergy target to $350M amid oilseed processing strength | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fed Hike Probability Climbs to 60.4% as Warsh Targets 4.2% Inflation | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 60% for September as Chair Warsh Cites 4.2% Inflation | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-05 | QuoMarkets Launches Weekend Gold Trading Instrument GOLD247 for 7-Day Access | mixed | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-05 | QuoMarkets Launches Weekend Gold Trading as Off-Hours Hedging Demand Accelerates | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-08-29 | Administration Backs CFTC Initiative to Bring Hyperliquid into U.S. Compliance | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.40 |