Investment case
Deere & Company
DE · 28 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-21
Market Ontology has mapped 28 macro, policy, and market developments to Deere & Company since 2026-08-30. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for DE yet, so no modelled value is shown. The DE valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run DE on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Deere Hits Record Above $700 on Guidance Raise and Cyclical Bottom Call
Direct financial guidance raise and positive cyclical outlook from management.
· Moves future revenue growth rates, profitability margins, terminal growth rate
- Main threat
Higher Policy Rates Diverge Industrial Vulnerability from AI Power Backlogs
Similar to Caterpillar, higher financing costs for agricultural and construction equipment purchases could dampen demand, particularly for large capital expenditures by farmers and construction firms.
· Moves revenue growth rate, ebitda margin, cost of capital
- Open question
Corteva confirms progress on Vylor spinoff ahead of October 2026 separation
Increased competition or innovation in the agricultural technology and seed sector. Vylor's focus on advanced seeds and genetics, including hybrid wheat, could intensify competition for agricultural input providers.
· Moves market share in agricultural inputs, pricing power for agricultural equipment/services
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-01Deere Advances 3.9% on Agricultural Machinery Cycle Upgrade
- 2026-09-21Higher Policy Rates Diverge Industrial Vulnerability from AI Power Backlogs
- 2026-09-18Mining and construction equipment sector gains 59.7% on energy transition demand
- 2026-09-18Freeport-McMoRan projects 46% quarterly EPS growth on structural copper demand
- 2026-09-06Deere Hits Record Above $700 on Guidance Raise and Cyclical Bottom Call
- 2026-09-06Deere Reaches Record Above $700 on Guidance Raise and Agricultural Cycle Bottom Call
- 2026-09-06Deere Hits Record Above $700 as CEO Calls Bottom of Ag Equipment Cycle
- 2026-09-06Deere Surpasses $700 on Guidance Upgrade and Cyclical Trough Call by CEO
- 2026-09-06Deere hits record above $700 on Q3 beat, $250M guidance hike, and cycle trough call
- 2026-09-06Deere Hits Record High Above $700 on Guidance Raise and Cycle Bottom Confirmation
- 2026-09-06Deere Tops $700 as CEO Calls 2026 Ag Cycle Trough and Lifts Full-Year Net Income Guidance
- 2026-09-01Deere Advances 3.9% on Projections of Farm Equipment Recovery Led by Grain Prices
- 2026-09-11John Deere Capital Corporation Prices $1.8 Billion Multi-Tranche Senior Notes Offering
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Valuation multiple | Bullish | Management confirmation of a cyclical trough in 2026 and a $250M guidance lift drives upward revisions in forward cash flow multiples. | 0.85 |
| 2026-09-06 | Margin | Bullish | Management raised full-year net income projections by $250 million and identified 2026 as the cyclical trough. | 0.95 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Higher Policy Rates Diverge Industrial Vulnerability from AI Power Backlogs | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | Mining and construction equipment sector gains 59.7% on energy transition demand | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | Freeport-McMoRan projects 46% quarterly EPS growth on structural copper demand | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-15 | Corteva confirms progress on Vylor spinoff ahead of October 2026 separation | watch | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-15 | Forgent Power Solutions Announces $35 Million Investment for Tijuana Capacity Expansion | mixed | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Secures $340 Million Final Construction Package for Marathon Project | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining completes $340M project financing for Marathon Copper-Palladium mine | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Completes $340M Construction Financing for Marathon Project | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-11 | John Deere Capital Corporation Prices $1.8 Billion Multi-Tranche Senior Notes Offering | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-11 | Harbor Commodity Strategy ETF Touches 52-Week High on Energy and Metals Momentum | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-06 | Deere Hits Record Above $700 on Guidance Raise and Cyclical Bottom Call | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-06 | Deere Surpasses $700 on Guidance Upgrade and Cyclical Trough Call by CEO | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |