Investment case
D.R. Horton, Inc.
DHI · 40 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-29
Market Ontology has mapped 40 macro, policy, and market developments to D.R. Horton, Inc. since 2026-08-16. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for DHI yet, so no modelled value is shown. The DHI valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run DHI on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
LGI Homes reports August home closings up 9.9% YoY to 409 units
Indirect read-through for the broader entry-level and affordable housing market, where D.R. Horton is a significant player. Positive LGIH data suggests favorable market conditions for peers.
· Moves industry sales volume growth, housing market demand outlook
- Main threat
Mortgage rates breach 7% on yield spike, dragging homebuilder ETF down 10%
Higher mortgage rates reduce housing affordability and buyer demand, leading to lower sales volumes and potential pricing pressure.
· Moves sales growth rate, average selling price, cost of goods sold percentage
- Open question
LGI Homes Initiates National Sales Event with Rate and Fee Buydowns
Indirect competitive pressure and industry trend. As a major homebuilder, DHI is likely facing similar market dynamics and may adopt similar strategies.
· Moves sales volume growth, average selling price (asp), cost of goods sold (cogs) as a percentage of revenue
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-29Mortgage rates breach 7% on yield spike, dragging homebuilder ETF down 10%
- 2026-09-29Homebuilder ETF Falls 9.9% in Past Month as Mortgage Rates Exceed 7%
- 2026-09-22LGI Homes Initiates National Sales Event with Rate and Fee Buydowns
- 2026-09-22LGI Homes offers builder rate buydowns and closing incentives to move inventory
- 2026-09-29Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month
- 2026-09-18Toll Brothers Falls 10.7% on 10% Delivery Drop and Rising SG&A Costs
- 2026-09-16M/I Homes Forecasts 26% EPS Decline as 5% Treasury Yields Pressure Housing
- 2026-09-01Lennar Faces 34.5% Projected EPS Drop as Homebuilder Demand Softens
- 2026-09-18Toll Brothers Falls 10.7% Post-Earnings as Deliveries Drop 10% on Cost Squeeze
- 2026-09-17Lennar Q3 Revenue Drops 8.7% and Misses Estimates on Weak Deliveries
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Margin | Bearish | Management expects sales incentives to remain elevated during the fourth quarter due to affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment. | 0.80 |
| 2026-07-21 | Share count | Bearish | Repurchase reduces shares outstanding. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Mortgage rates breach 7% on yield spike, dragging homebuilder ETF down 10% | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-29 | Homebuilder ETF Falls 9.9% in Past Month as Mortgage Rates Exceed 7% | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-29 | Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-22 | LGI Homes Initiates National Sales Event with Rate and Fee Buydowns | mixed | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-22 | LGI Homes Launches National Rate-Buydown Campaign to Move Housing Inventory | watch | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-22 | LGI Homes Rolls Out Builder-Paid Rate Buydowns Across Move-In Ready Inventory | watch | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-22 | LGI Homes offers builder rate buydowns and closing incentives to move inventory | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | Toll Brothers Falls 10.7% Post-Earnings as Deliveries Drop 10% on Cost Squeeze | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | Toll Brothers deliveries fall 10% in Q3 as higher costs pressure forward margins | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | Toll Brothers Falls 10.7% on 10% Delivery Drop and Rising SG&A Costs | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-18 | Toll Brothers falls 10.7% as Q3 home deliveries drop 10% despite 2.3% price rise | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | Toll Brothers deliveries fall 10% in Q3 fiscal 2026 despite 2.3% average price increase | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |