Investment case
SPDR Gold Shares
GLD · 48 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 48 macro, policy, and market developments to SPDR Gold Shares since 2026-08-13. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for GLD yet, so no modelled value is shown. The GLD valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run GLD on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Spot gold advances 14% across August to trade near $4,700/oz
Directly tracks the price of gold. Higher spot gold prices lead to a proportional increase in the ETF's net asset value.
· Moves underlying asset price (gold)
- Main threat
Hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole Remarks Pressure Precious Metals
Direct exposure to spot gold prices.
· Moves spot gold price
- Open question
Agnico Eagle Mines Q3 Revenue Projected to Rise 15.5% to $3.53 Billion
Second-order effect: If AEM's strong projections are partly due to 'gold price tailwinds,' this implies a favorable environment for gold as an asset, which could positively influence gold-backed ETFs.
· Moves underlying commodity price
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-08-28Spot gold advances 14% across August to trade near $4,700/oz
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining Gains Over 5% as Weaker ADP Employment Cools Rate Expectations
- 2026-09-12Agnico Eagle gains 9.05% in month ahead of Q3 EPS projected up 13.43% YoY
- 2026-09-03Weaker ADP Employment Print Cools Rate Fears, Lifting Gold Miners
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining Gains Over 5% as Soft ADP Employment Prints Cool Rate Hike Pricing
- 2026-08-30Fed Chair Warsh Signals Potential Rate Hikes at Jackson Hole, Pressuring Metals
- 2026-08-30Precious Metals and Miners Slide After Fed Chair Warsh Signals Inflation Vigilance
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining rallies over 5% as soft ADP employment data eases rate hike concerns
- 2026-08-30Hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole Remarks Pressure Precious Metals
- 2026-08-29Precious Metals and Miners Slide as Hawkish Fed Signals Potential Rate Hikes
- 2026-08-23Royal Gold Diversifies AI Exposure via Gold, Silver, and Copper
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Northern Star Resources rejects $27.1 billion takeover approach from Gold Fields | mixed | 1-5d | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-28 | US Bancorp Study Outlines Divided Government Volatility for S&P 500 | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-27 | US Sovereign Debt Crosses $40 Trillion with Annual Interest at $1.25 Trillion | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-21 | 10-Year Treasury yield approaches 5% as S&P 500 dividend yield holds at 1.1% | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-18 | Gold.com Announces CFO & Auditor Transitions; Jill Van to succeed Cary Dickson | watch | 1-3m | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-18 | S&P 500 CAPE ratio reaches 41, matching historical extremes seen in 1929 and 1999 | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-13 | Agnico Eagle Mines Q3 Revenue Projected to Rise 15.5% to $3.53 Billion | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-12 | Agnico Eagle gains 9.05% in month ahead of Q3 EPS projected up 13.43% YoY | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-12 | Greenland Mines completes 104.8t bulk sampling at Skaergaard PGM-gold project | watch | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-12 | Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Ton Bulk Sampling at Skaergaard Metals Project | watch | 3-12m | 0.10 |