Investment case
The Home Depot, Inc.
HD · 91 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-29
Market Ontology has mapped 91 macro, policy, and market developments to The Home Depot, Inc. since 2026-08-11. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for HD yet, so no modelled value is shown. The HD valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run HD on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Main threat
Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes
Higher mortgage rates and increased cost of consumer credit can dampen housing market activity and consumer spending on home improvement projects, impacting sales volumes.
· Moves consumer discretionary spending, housing market activity, sales growth
- Open question
Rexel Completes €500M Capital Increase to Fund US Infrastructure Buy GCG
Indirect competition in the professional contractor and MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) supply market.
· Moves pro customer growth, market share in mro and construction supplies
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-18Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes
- 2026-09-21Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective
- 2026-09-20FOMC Unanimously Hikes Policy Rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%
- 2026-09-1610-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.041%, Highest Level Since July 2007
- 2026-09-20FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% Under Chair Warsh
- 2026-09-18Fed Hikes Rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as Yields Approach 5%
- 2026-09-20Fed raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh
- 2026-09-29Mortgage rates breach 7% on yield spike, dragging homebuilder ETF down 10%
- 2026-09-29Homebuilder ETF Falls 9.9% in Past Month as Mortgage Rates Exceed 7%
- 2026-09-21FOMC Raises Policy Rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% Target Band
- 2026-09-15Whirlpool falls 3.44% to $34.00 as Q3 EPS is projected to decline 51.67%
- 2026-09-29Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Mortgage rates breach 7% on yield spike, dragging homebuilder ETF down 10% | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-29 | Homebuilder ETF Falls 9.9% in Past Month as Mortgage Rates Exceed 7% | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-29 | Rexel Completes €500M Capital Increase to Fund US Infrastructure Buy GCG | watch | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-29 | Mortgage Rates Breach 7% as Treasury Surge Sinks Homebuilder ETF by 10% in Month | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.23% as Hawkish Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Path | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Fed Chair Warsh Signals Hawkish Higher-for-Longer Path to Restrain Persistent Inflation | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-25 | U.S. Indices Fall as 30-Year Treasury Yield Touches 2004 High | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.55 |
| 2026-09-25 | Long-End Treasury Yields Reach 2004 Highs as Equity Indices Decline | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-25 | U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2004 High, Pressuring Major Equities | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2004 High as Oil Rises and Stocks Fall | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-21 | FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as 10-Year Yield Approaches 5.0% | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |