Investment case
Hercules Capital, Inc.
HTGC · 11 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 11 macro, policy, and market developments to Hercules Capital, Inc. since 2026-08-27. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for HTGC yet, so no modelled value is shown. The HTGC valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run HTGC on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
Similar business model as a BDC with significant floating-rate asset exposure, benefiting from rising rates.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), dividend payout sustainability, earnings per share growth
- Open question
Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
As a BDC focused on venture debt, HTGC also has substantial floating-rate loan exposure, making it sensitive to interest rate changes and borrower health.
· Moves net investment income (nii) growth, credit loss provisions
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
- 2026-09-28Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds | mixed | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Federal Reserve 25bp Rate Hike Expands Private Credit Floating-Rate Yield Spreads | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-15 | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. Explores Strategic Alternatives | watch | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDCs Resume Fixed-Rate Bond Issuance Following Quarter-Long Market Freeze | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDCs resume bond issuance; Barings BDC priced $350M at 6.5% | mixed | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDC Debt Markets Reopen with Barings BDC $350M 6.5% Bond Placement | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-08-27 | Barings BDC Issues $350M at 6.50% as BDC Debt Markets Reopen | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |