Investment case
McDonald's Corporation
MCD · 11 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-26
Market Ontology has mapped 11 macro, policy, and market developments to McDonald's Corporation since 2026-08-27. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for MCD yet, so no modelled value is shown. The MCD valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run MCD on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Main threat
Q2 Fast Food Traffic Diverges as Burger King Posts 8.5% SSS Growth vs MCD 0.8%
Direct impact from weak same-store sales growth, suggesting challenges with current menu strategy and potentially losing market share to competitors like Burger King.
· Moves revenue growth rate, ebitda margin, market share
- Open question
Major Wendy's Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 on $150M Debt Default
Potential for market share gain from disrupted Wendy's locations, but also increased scrutiny on its own franchisee network's financial health and credit access.
· Moves same store sales growth, cost of debt for franchisees
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-26Q2 Fast Food Traffic Diverges as Burger King Posts 8.5% SSS Growth vs MCD 0.8%
- 2026-09-26Burger King SSS expands 8.5% in Q2 vs McDonald's 0.8% growth
- 2026-09-26QSR Traffic Shifts as Burger King Outpaces McDonald's in Same-Store Sales
- 2026-09-16Consumer Discretionary Shares Drop as SBUX and RCL Trail Broader Market
- 2026-09-19Major Wendy's Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 on $150M Debt Default
- 2026-08-29U.S. Credit Card Debt Reaches $1.26T as Real Wage Headwinds Compress Margins
- 2026-08-27Fed Study Shows 90-Day Credit Card Delinquencies Doubled Since 2022 as New Inflows Flatline
- 2026-09-19Meritage Hospitality Files Chapter 11 After Defaulting on $150M Loan
- 2026-09-19Meritage Hospitality files Chapter 11 after defaulting on 150M USD loan
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Q2 Fast Food Traffic Diverges as Burger King Posts 8.5% SSS Growth vs MCD 0.8% | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-26 | Burger King SSS expands 8.5% in Q2 vs McDonald's 0.8% growth | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-26 | QSR Traffic Shifts as Burger King Outpaces McDonald's in Same-Store Sales | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-19 | Meritage Hospitality files Chapter 11 after defaulting on 150M USD loan | watch | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-19 | Major Wendy's franchisee Meritage Hospitality files Chapter 11 | watch | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-19 | Meritage Hospitality Files Chapter 11 After Defaulting on $150M Loan | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-19 | Major Wendy's Franchisee Meritage Files Chapter 11 on $150M Debt Default | mixed | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-16 | Consumer Discretionary Shares Drop as SBUX and RCL Trail Broader Market | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-05 | SoundHound AI Reports 45% Q2 Revenue Growth to $62M on Voice Automation Demand | watch | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-08-29 | U.S. Credit Card Debt Reaches $1.26T as Real Wage Headwinds Compress Margins | mixed | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | Fed Study Shows 90-Day Credit Card Delinquencies Doubled Since 2022 as New Inflows Flatline | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.30 |