Investment case
Newmont Corporation
NEM · 41 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 41 macro, policy, and market developments to Newmont Corporation since 2026-08-20. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for NEM yet, so no modelled value is shown. The NEM valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run NEM on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Spot gold advances 14% across August to trade near $4,700/oz
Direct increase in realized gold prices, leading to higher revenue and potentially disproportionately higher operating income due to operating leverage.
· Moves future gold price forecasts, ebitda multiples, discount rate (if risk perception changes)
- Main threat
Hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole Remarks Pressure Precious Metals
Indirect commodity price exposure (gold) and higher discount rates.
· Moves long term gold price forecasts, discount rate (wacc), terminal growth rate
- Open question
Franco-Nevada Q2 Revenue Surges 57% to $581M but EPS Misses on Margin Contraction
indirect sector sentiment, peer performance in precious metals streaming/mining
· Moves sector growth outlook, cost structure efficiency
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-08-28Spot gold advances 14% across August to trade near $4,700/oz
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining Gains Over 5% as Soft ADP Employment Prints Cool Rate Hike Pricing
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining Gains Over 5% as Weaker ADP Employment Cools Rate Expectations
- 2026-09-03SSR Mining rallies over 5% as soft ADP employment data eases rate hike concerns
- 2026-08-30Fed Chair Warsh Signals Potential Rate Hikes at Jackson Hole, Pressuring Metals
- 2026-08-30Hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole Remarks Pressure Precious Metals
- 2026-09-12Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Ton Bulk Sampling at Skaergaard Project
- 2026-09-03Weaker ADP Employment Print Cools Rate Fears, Lifting Gold Miners
- 2026-09-03Precious Metals Miners Rise as Softer ADP Jobs Print Eases Rate Pressure
- 2026-08-29Gold and silver slump post-Warsh; miners SSRM and GORO fall
- 2026-08-29Gold and Silver Miners Drop Over 4% as Hawkish Fed Signals Hit Precious Metals
- 2026-09-03Cooling ADP Employment Data Eases Policy Rate Pressures, Lifting Precious Metals
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Share count | Bullish | Stock component of consideration dilutes existing acquirer holders. | 0.70 |
| 2026-08-11 | Net debt | Bullish | Cash component of consideration is typically debt-funded, raising net debt. | 0.70 |
| 2026-08-11 | Revenue | Bullish | Acquisition adds target revenue to acquirer P&L on close. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-05 | Revenue | Bearish | Lowered production guidance for the second half of 2026 and gold entering bear market territory. | 0.80 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Northern Star Resources rejects $27.1 billion takeover approach from Gold Fields | watch | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-22 | Oil ETFs gain over 100% YTD on Middle East conflict and futures backwardation | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Secures $340 Million Construction Financing for Marathon Project | watch | 1-5y | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Secures $340M Construction Package for Marathon Project | mixed | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Fully Finances $340M Marathon Critical Minerals Mine | watch | 1-5y | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Generation Mining Completes $340M Construction Financing for Marathon Project | watch | 3-12m | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-13 | Agnico Eagle Mines Q3 Revenue Projected to Rise 15.5% to $3.53 Billion | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-12 | Agnico Eagle gains 9.05% in month ahead of Q3 EPS projected up 13.43% YoY | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-12 | Greenland Mines collects 104.8 tons in Skaergaard bulk sampling program | watch | 1-5y | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-12 | Agnico Eagle Rallies to $200 as Gold Miner Outperforms Ahead of Q3 Results | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-12 | Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Ton Bulk Sampling at Skaergaard Project | watch | 1-5y | 0.10 |
| 2026-09-12 | Agnico Eagle projected for $3.53B revenue (+15.49% YoY) as shares hit $200.36 | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |