Investment case
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
NLY · 3 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-20
Market Ontology has mapped 3 macro, policy, and market developments to Annaly Capital Management, Inc. since 2026-09-19. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for NLY yet, so no modelled value is shown. The NLY valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run NLY on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Main threat
Annaly Slides 8.5% Over 30 Days as Agency Mortgage Spreads Challenge REITs
Direct exposure to agency MBS spreads and short-term funding costs, impacting net interest margin and book value.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), book value per share (bvps) stability, cost of funds
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-19Annaly Slides 8.5% Over 30 Days as Agency Mortgage Spreads Challenge REITs
- 2026-09-19Annaly Capital Drops to $21.05 as Agency Mortgage Spread Pressures Persist
- 2026-09-20Annaly Capital falls 8.5% over past month as mortgage REIT spreads face rate headwinds
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Valuation multiple | Bearish | Incremental float typically compresses near-term multiple absent revenue acceleration. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-21 | Share count | Bullish | Primary equity issuance increases diluted share count. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-16 | Cost of capital | Bullish | Fed signaling 2026 rate hikes increases long-term discount rates and puts pressure on dividend coverage for mREITs. | 0.80 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Annaly Capital falls 8.5% over past month as mortgage REIT spreads face rate headwinds | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-19 | Annaly Slides 8.5% Over 30 Days as Agency Mortgage Spreads Challenge REITs | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-19 | Annaly Capital Drops to $21.05 as Agency Mortgage Spread Pressures Persist | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.90 |