Investment case
Realty Income Corporation
O · 14 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 14 macro, policy, and market developments to Realty Income Corporation since 2026-08-12. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for O yet, so no modelled value is shown. The O valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run O on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Main threat
10-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.23% Following 25bp Rate Hike and Hawkish Fed Guidance
Increased cost of debt for real estate financing, reduced attractiveness of dividend yield relative to risk-free rate, higher cap rates for property valuation.
· Moves cost of equity, cost of debt, capitalization rates
- Open question
Realty Income Corporation Convertible — $1B
Direct financing activity, balance sheet structure, potential future dilution
· Moves cost of debt, cost of equity, future share count (dilution)
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-2810-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.23% Following 25bp Rate Hike and Hawkish Fed Guidance
- 2026-09-2810-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.23% After Federal Reserve Hikes Policy Rate 25 bps
- 2026-08-20Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Target, Ending 'Fed Put'
- 2026-08-14Realty Income Corporation Convertible — $1B
- 2026-08-12Realty Income Corporation Convertible — $875M
- 2026-08-20Fed Chair Warsh Signals End of 'Fed Put' with Strict 2% Target
- 2026-08-20Fed Chair Warsh Ends 'Fed Put' with Strict 2% Inflation Target
- 2026-08-20Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Target, Rejects Soft Guidance
- 2026-08-19Fed Chair Warsh Signals End of 'Fed Put' With Strict 2% Target
- 2026-08-20Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Inflation Target
- 2026-08-19Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Inflation Target, Ends Guidance
- 2026-08-19Fed Chair Warsh Rejects Soft Inflation Goal, Commits to Strict 2% Target
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Cost of capital | Bullish | Removal of 'Fed put' and higher terminal rates increase equity risk premium for rate-sensitive REITs. | 0.85 |
| 2026-08-12 | Share count | Bullish | Convertible notes introduce potential future dilution to the share count upon conversion. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-12 | Net debt | Bullish | Issuance of $875M in convertible senior notes increases the company's debt obligations. | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-12 | Interest expense | Bullish | Coupon adds to interest expense until conversion. | 0.70 |
| 2026-08-12 | Dilution | Bullish | Convertible issuance creates contingent dilution at conversion price. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-13 | Net debt | Bearish | Liability-management transactions often reduce gross debt or push maturities out. | 0.70 |
| 2026-07-13 | Interest expense | Bearish | Tender/exchange extends maturity profile and typically lowers near-term interest expense. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cost of capital | Bearish | IG cost of debt is below blended cost of capital; weighting effect lowers WACC. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-30 | Interest expense | Bullish | New IG coupon adds to recurring interest expense. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-30 | Net debt | Bullish | Investment-grade issuance adds gross debt to the balance sheet. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.23% After Federal Reserve Hikes Policy Rate 25 bps | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.23% Following 25bp Rate Hike and Hawkish Fed Guidance | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-20 | Fed Chair Warsh Signals End of 'Fed Put' with Strict 2% Target | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-20 | Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Target, Ending 'Fed Put' | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.70 |
| 2026-08-20 | Fed Chair Warsh Ends 'Fed Put' with Strict 2% Inflation Target | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-20 | Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Inflation Target | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-20 | Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Target, Rejects Soft Guidance | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-19 | Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Inflation Target, Ends Guidance | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-19 | Fed Chair Warsh Commits to Strict 2% Inflation Target | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-19 | Fed Chair Warsh Rejects Soft Inflation Goals, Commits to Strict 2% Target | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-19 | Fed Chair Warsh Signals End of 'Fed Put' With Strict 2% Target | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.80 |
| 2026-08-19 | Fed Chair Warsh Rejects Soft Inflation Goal, Commits to Strict 2% Target | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.80 |