Investment case
Prospect Capital Corporation
PSEC · 12 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 12 macro, policy, and market developments to Prospect Capital Corporation since 2026-08-27. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for PSEC yet, so no modelled value is shown. The PSEC valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run PSEC on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
Similar business model as a BDC with significant floating-rate asset exposure, benefiting from rising rates.
· Moves net interest margin (nim), dividend payout sustainability, earnings per share growth
- Main threat
Houlihan Lokey flags rising stress in private credit for sub-$100M EBITDA borrowers
Increased risk of loan defaults and non-accruals in their private credit portfolio, leading to potential write-downs and reduced interest income.
· Moves net interest margin, credit loss provisions, asset quality
- Open question
Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
Another BDC with a portfolio of floating-rate loans, subject to the same dual effects of increased interest income and potential credit deterioration.
· Moves net investment income (nii) growth, credit loss provisions
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-12Houlihan Lokey flags rising stress in private credit for sub-$100M EBITDA borrowers
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate credit portfolio following Fed rate hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike
- 2026-09-28Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Maintains 10%+ Yield as 71% Floating-Rate Debt Captures Fed Hikes | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital 71% Floating-Rate Debt Book Benefits from Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% Floating-Rate Portfolio to Capture Higher Fed Rate | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital maintains 71% floating-rate credit portfolio following Fed rate hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Reports 71% Floating-Rate Asset Exposure Amid Fed Rate Hike Headwinds | mixed | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-28 | Ares Capital Positions 71% of Portfolio in Floating Debt After Fed 25bp Rate Hike | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-12 | Houlihan Lokey flags rising stress in private credit for sub-$100M EBITDA borrowers | Bearish | 3-12m | 0.60 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDCs Resume Fixed-Rate Bond Issuance Following Quarter-Long Market Freeze | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDCs resume bond issuance; Barings BDC priced $350M at 6.5% | mixed | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDC Debt Markets Reopen with Barings BDC $350M 6.5% Bond Placement | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | Barings BDC Issues $350M at 6.50% as BDC Debt Markets Reopen | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-08-27 | BDC Bond Issuance Resumes as Barings BDC Completes $350M Debt Placement | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.30 |