Impact ledger
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): the developments shaping its investment case
Follow the evidence affecting iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Review the key developments below. Continue in Market Ontology to test your assumptions, examine related opportunities, and save the investment case you want to track.
Research iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF · $399/mo
Test assumptions, examine opportunities, and save your research.
Material developments
2026-09-18 · 3 reports
Fed hikes target rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as 10-year yields near 5.00%
Channel: Direct inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. A rate hike immediately decreases the value of existing bonds held by the ETF.
Bearish· intraday
2026-09-18
Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes
Channel: Direct impact of higher short-term interest rates on bond prices. As rates rise, existing bonds with lower coupon rates become less attractive, leading to a decrease in their market value.
Bearish· intraday
2026-09-18
10-Year Treasury yield approaches 5% as cash shifts into short-duration debt ETFs
Channel: Increased investor demand for short-duration fixed income assets to mitigate duration risk in a rising rate environment.
Bullish· 1-3m
Event impact log
6 events mapped to SHY since 2026-09-18. Evidence through 2026-09-18.
| Date | Event | Channel | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Fed hikes target rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as 10-year yields near 5.00% | Direct inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. A rate hike immediately decreases the value of existing bonds held by the ETF. | Bearish | intraday | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes | Direct impact of higher short-term interest rates on bond prices. As rates rise, existing bonds with lower coupon rates become less attractive, leading to a decrease in their market value. | Bearish | intraday | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed Hikes Rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as Yields Approach 5% | Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. A rate hike directly increases the yield on new short-term bonds, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, thus decreasing their market value. | Bearish | intraday | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed hikes policy rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%; 10Y Treasury yield approaches 5% | Inverse relationship between bond yields and bond prices. As interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds with lower coupon rates falls. | Bearish | intraday | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed hikes target rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh | Direct impact of rising interest rates on bond prices. Short-duration bonds are less sensitive than long-duration but still negatively affected. | Bearish | 1-5d | 0.80 |
| 2026-09-18 | 10-Year Treasury yield approaches 5% as cash shifts into short-duration debt ETFs | Increased investor demand for short-duration fixed income assets to mitigate duration risk in a rising rate environment. | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.80 |
Continue this research
Build your iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF investment case. Continue from the evidence above, change the assumptions the developments move, and save the work to revisit as the case develops.
This ledger is regenerated from Market Ontology's public event pipeline. View the SHY entity page →