Impact ledger

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

63 events mapped to this ticker since 2026-06-12.

Assumption changes

Date	Assumption	Direction	Magnitude	Conf.
2026-07-17	multiple	Bearish	—	0.90
2026-07-16	multiple	Bearish	—	0.75
2026-07-09	multiple	Bearish	—	0.85
2026-07-09	multiple	Bearish	—	0.80
2026-07-02	margin	Bearish	—	0.70
2026-07-02	wacc	Bullish	—	0.90
2026-07-02	multiple	Bearish	0.10	0.85
2026-07-02	wacc	Bullish	—	0.90
2026-07-02	multiple	Bearish	0.10	0.85
2026-07-02	wacc	Bullish	—	0.80
2026-07-01	multiple	Bearish	0.10	0.90
2026-06-18	wacc	Bullish	—	0.90
2026-06-18	wacc	Bullish	3.80	0.90
2026-06-18	wacc	Bullish	—	0.95
2026-06-17	multiple	Bearish	—	0.80
2026-06-15	wacc	Bullish	—	0.90
2026-06-15	wacc	Bullish	—	0.85
2026-06-12	interest_expense	Bullish	—	0.85

Event impact log

Date	Event	Channel	Direction	Horizon	Impact
2026-07-17	Event	The semiconductor sector has a heavy weighting in the S&P 500. Widespread losses in this sector will directly pull down the overall index performance.	Bearish	1-5d	0.70
2026-07-17	Event	The S&P 500's strong H1 performance (10.2%) indicates robust underlying market conditions. Funds like ADX, even if actively managed, are benchmarked against and influenced by the S&P 500's trajectory. Continued positive reporting on market benchmarks can reinforce investor confidence.	Bullish	1-5d	0.70
2026-07-16	Event	Higher discount rates for future earnings, reduced corporate profitability due to increased borrowing costs, and potential for economic slowdown impacting overall market sentiment.	Bearish	1-3m	0.90
2026-07-16	Event	Higher discount rates, reduced corporate earnings expectations, and increased cost of capital for constituent companies. Historical precedents suggest market pullbacks.	Bearish	1-3m	0.90
2026-07-15	Event	JNJ is a large-cap component of the S&P 500. Significant movements in JNJ's stock price can have a minor, direct impact on the index.	watch	intraday	0.20
2026-07-15	Event	Market sentiment and index weighting; MSFT is a significant component of the S&P 500. Its perceived undervaluation and potential rebound could positively influence the index, or its prior drawdown may have contributed to broader market weakness.	watch	1-5d	0.20
2026-07-14	Event	Negative sentiment around a major component (GOOGL) due to dilution and buyback termination could weigh on the broader market. However, the underlying reason (aggressive AI investment) could be seen as a positive for future tech growth, creating a mixed short-term reaction.	mixed	1-5d	0.50
2026-07-14	Event	Higher energy costs act as a tax on consumers and businesses, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing corporate earnings across various sectors, leading to broader market weakness. Increased geopolitical uncertainty also dampens investor sentiment.	Bearish	1-3m	0.70
2026-07-13	Event	Increased concentration risk due to NVIDIA's growing market cap. While positive for SPY in the short term, it increases vulnerability to any future NVIDIA-specific downturn.	watch	1-3m	0.60
2026-07-11	Event	Indirect impact from rebalancing activities in other major indices, though SPY does not directly track the DJIA. Potential for minor, temporary market volatility.	watch	1-5d	0.10
2026-07-09	Event	Market sentiment shift, potential for broad market correction due to extreme valuation levels and macroeconomic headwinds.	Bearish	1-3m	0.90
2026-07-09	Event	Direct exposure to S&P 500 index performance, reflecting broad market sentiment and valuation concerns.	Bearish	1-3m	0.90
2026-07-09	Event	Market-wide valuation contraction, increased volatility	Bearish	1-3m	0.90
2026-07-08	Event	Higher-for-longer interest rates increase the discount rate for future earnings and raise borrowing costs for corporations, potentially dampening economic activity and corporate profits.	Bearish	1-3m	0.70
2026-07-07	Event	Indirect impact through broader market sentiment and potential spillover from Nasdaq-100 dynamics. While SpaceX is not directly entering the S&P 500, the significant event in a major growth index could influence overall market sentiment and potentially lead to some capital reallocation or shifts in	watch	1-3m	0.30
2026-07-06	Event	Market sentiment and valuation multiples	mixed	1-3m	0.70
2026-07-06	Event	Market sentiment and valuation re-assessment based on Q2 earnings. High P/E suggests vulnerability to negative surprises.	watch	1-3m	0.80
2026-07-05	Event	Uncertainty regarding monetary policy and potential for political interference could lead to increased market volatility and investor apprehension, impacting broad market sentiment.	watch	1-3m	0.70
2026-07-02	Event	Relative underperformance compared to small-caps. Potential rotation of capital out of large-cap funds.	Bearish	1-3m	0.60
2026-07-02	Event	Increased market volatility and potential equity market sell-off due to a 'hot' jobs report, leading to broad-based declines in major indices.	Bearish	intraday	0.70
2026-07-01	Event	Market-wide valuation contraction, index rebalancing risk, passive flow reversal	Bearish	3-12m	0.80
2026-07-01	Event	Overall market valuation and potential for broad market correction.	Bearish	3-12m	0.80
2026-07-01	Event	Reflects the broader market. Positive from AI-driven EPS growth, but negative from narrow breadth and potential multiple compression if Q2 results disappoint.	mixed	1-3m	0.70
2026-07-01	Event	Increased systemic risk due to high margin debt, leading to potential broad market sell-offs if volatility spikes, impacting the underlying assets of the ETF.	Bearish	1-3m	0.80
2026-06-30	Event	Underlying market structure indicating potential for broader market volatility despite low VIX. Narrow leadership suggests fragility.	watch	1-3m	0.70
2026-06-30	Event	Investor capital outflows due to underperformance relative to international equities.	Bearish	1-3m	0.70
2026-06-30	Event	Market structure risk; narrow leadership implies higher index correction risk if leading stocks falter.	watch	1-3m	0.70
2026-06-30	Event	Market structure risk; high dispersion and narrow leadership increase the probability of a broad market correction or increased volatility, directly impacting the ETF's underlying assets.	watch	1-3m	0.70
2026-06-30	Event	Increased risk of a broad market correction due to high dispersion and narrow leadership, leading to potential outflows from broad market ETFs.	Bearish	1-3m	0.80
2026-06-30	Event	While SPY tracks the S&P 500, not the DJIA, the event signifies a broader market shift towards tech. This could indirectly influence sector rotations or investor sentiment, but the direct impact on SPY is likely minimal as it's not directly affected by DJIA rebalancing.	watch	1-5d	0.10
2026-06-30	Event	Market structure risk; concentration risk within the index. A narrow rally implies broader market weakness beneath the surface.	watch	1-3m	0.80
2026-06-30	Event	Increased single-stock dispersion could lead to higher tracking error for broad market ETFs, and potential for sudden, sharp movements in underlying constituents to impact overall index performance.	watch	1-3m	0.60
2026-06-30	Event	Second-order effect: Semiconductor leadership fatigue could signal broader market rotation or a potential market top, leading to overall market weakness.	Bearish	1-3m	0.40
2026-06-29	Event	Market sentiment, potential for large-scale selling pressure, lack of major buying from a significant market participant.	Bearish	1-3m	0.60
2026-06-29	Event	Reduced institutional buying pressure and potential signal of overvaluation.	Bearish	1-3m	0.60
2026-06-28	Event	Broad market sentiment and potential for reduced institutional buying pressure. Berkshire's actions can influence broader market perceptions.	Bearish	1-3m	0.60
2026-06-28	Event	Divergence in index performance due to SpaceX's exclusion from the S&P 500, potentially leading to minor relative underperformance if SpaceX outperforms.	watch	1-3m	0.10
2026-06-24	Event	Broader market weakness due to risk-off sentiment and Nasdaq 100 breakdown, which can drag down the overall market.	Bearish	1-5d	0.60
2026-06-23	Event	Higher interest rates and increased rate volatility could reduce the attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income, potentially leading to outflows or reduced inflows into broad market ETFs. The hawkish shift could also dampen overall market sentiment.	Bearish	1-3m	0.70
2026-06-23	Event	Direct exposure to S&P 500 performance, influenced by rebalancing flows and overall market sentiment. Hawkish Fed stance could temper equity valuations.	watch	1-3m	0.70

This ledger is regenerated from Market Ontology's public event pipeline. For live alerts on new assumption changes for SPY, start a trial or view the SPY entity page.