Investment case
United States Oil Fund, LP
USO · 19 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-27
Market Ontology has mapped 19 macro, policy, and market developments to United States Oil Fund, LP since 2026-08-13. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for USO yet, so no modelled value is shown. The USO valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run USO on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Oil ETFs USO and BNO Surge Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Geopolitical Risk
Direct exposure to crude oil futures prices, benefiting from backwardation and rising spot prices.
· Moves underlying commodity price performance, roll yield
- Main threat
Iraq Aims to Double Oil Output to 10M Barrels Per Day; Chevron to Operate Fields
As an ETF tracking crude oil prices, USO would likely decline if increased Iraqi supply leads to lower global oil prices.
· Moves underlying commodity price trends
- Open question
United States Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $1.85 Billion
Direct fund performance and investor sentiment. Significant withdrawals can impact fund size and potentially its ability to track the underlying commodity efficiently, though the fund is large enough to absorb this.
· Moves assets under management (aum) growth, expense ratio stability
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-22Oil ETFs USO and BNO Surge Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Geopolitical Risk
- 2026-09-12Crude breaks above $100 as Brent hits $107.63 and WTI reaches $102.48
- 2026-09-22Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD Driven by Middle East Backwardation Roll Yield
- 2026-09-27Midstream Energy Yields Reach 5.8% on Sustained Pipeline Volume Throughput
- 2026-09-12Occidental targets $10B debt level to eliminate $740M in annual interest expense
- 2026-09-22Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk
- 2026-08-22Iraq Aims to Double Oil Output to 10M Barrels Per Day; Chevron to Operate Fields
- 2026-09-18Magnolia Oil & Gas projects 64.3% earnings growth as upstream cash margins expand
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Midstream Energy Yields Reach 5.8% on Sustained Pipeline Volume Throughput | mixed | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-22 | Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-22 | Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD Driven by Middle East Backwardation Roll Yield | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-22 | Oil ETFs USO and BNO Surge Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Geopolitical Risk | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | Phillips 66 Drops 4.17% Ahead of Projected 305% Q3 Earnings Growth Due October 28 | mixed | 1-5d | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-21 | Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | Bearish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | Magnolia Oil & Gas projects 64.3% earnings growth as upstream cash margins expand | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-18 | Fed raises policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% as futures price 87% odds of further hikes | mixed | 1-3m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-12 | Occidental targets $10B debt level to eliminate $740M in annual interest expense | mixed | 1-3m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-12 | Shell repurchases 1.22M shares across London and Amsterdam under buyback | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-12 | Crude breaks above $100 as Brent hits $107.63 and WTI reaches $102.48 | Bullish | intraday | 0.95 |
| 2026-09-10 | Exxon Mobil gains 2.2% against market pullback as Q3 EPS is projected up 101% | Bullish | 1-5d | 0.40 |