Investment case
Waste Management, Inc.
WM · 12 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-28
Market Ontology has mapped 12 macro, policy, and market developments to Waste Management, Inc. since 2026-08-11. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for WM yet, so no modelled value is shown. The WM valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run WM on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to $10.02B-$10.05B on $100M Acquired Run-Rate
Sector sentiment improvement and potential for similar M&A opportunities.
· Moves sector growth outlook, m&a environment for waste management
- Open question
Waste Connections lifts 2026 revenue guidance to $10.02B-$10.05B on strong FCF
Peer performance comparison and potential competitive pressure/opportunity. Strong WCN performance might indicate sector-wide tailwinds or WCN gaining market share.
· Moves market share, industry growth rate
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to $10.02B-$10.05B on $100M Acquired Run-Rate
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections lifts 2026 revenue guidance to $10.02B-$10.05B on strong FCF
- 2026-08-12Clean Harbors to Acquire EnviroServe for $470 Million
- 2026-09-28US National Debt Surpasses $40 Trillion as Annual Interest Servicing Reaches $1.25T
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance to $10.05B on Strong M&A Additions
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance to $10.05B on Acquisition Growth
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections raises 2026 revenue guidance to 10.02B-10.05B USD on M&A integration
- 2026-09-19Waste Connections Raises 2026 Full-Year Revenue Guidance to $10.05 Billion
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Margin | Bullish | Adjusted operating EBITDA margin outlook for 2026 increased by 20 basis points to 31.0%-31.2%. | 0.90 |
| 2026-07-28 | Revenue | Bearish | Revenue outlook for 2026 was reduced by approximately 0.6% due to lower volume expectations. | 0.90 |
| 2026-07-28 | Share count | Bearish | Repurchase reduces shares outstanding. | 0.70 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | US National Debt Surpasses $40 Trillion as Annual Interest Servicing Reaches $1.25T | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.50 |
| 2026-09-24 | Carbios Cuts H1 Loss to €9.4M and Secures Credit Committee Approvals for Plant | Bullish | 3-12m | 0.20 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections raises 2026 revenue guidance to 10.02B-10.05B USD on M&A integration | watch | 1-3m | 0.30 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to $10.02B-$10.05B on $100M Acquired Run-Rate | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections lifts 2026 revenue guidance to $10.02B-$10.05B on strong FCF | mixed | 1-3m | 0.60 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections Raises 2026 Full-Year Revenue Guidance to $10.05 Billion | mixed | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance to $10.05B on Strong M&A Additions | mixed | 1-3m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook to $10.05B Post-M&A | mixed | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-19 | Waste Connections Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance to $10.05B on Acquisition Growth | mixed | 3-12m | 0.40 |
| 2026-09-01 | Louisiana-Pacific Corp to Curtail OSB Production at Jasper, Texas Facility | watch | 3-12m | 0.10 |
| 2026-08-12 | Clean Harbors to Acquire EnviroServe for $470 Million | mixed | 3-12m | 0.30 |
| 2026-08-11 | Enviri Corporation Completes Sale of Clean Earth and Spin-off of Harsco Environmental and Harsco Rail | watch | 3-12m | 0.20 |