Progressive rises 1.56% to $221.02 on low 12.25x forward P/E and $23.29B revenue outlook
Resolved · earnings · Occurred · Assessed · 1 sources
This assessment is dated 2026-09-15. Check what remains unresolved below before relying on it.
Does the new outlook change what the company is worth?
Defensive capital allocation toward low-multiple property-casualty balance sheets lifts PGR to $221.02 during high-yield tape pressure.
| Question | What the evidence establishes |
|---|---|
| What was reported? | Reported factProgressive (PGR) stock gained 1.56% to close at $221.02 on September 14, 2026, while the S&P 500 declined 0.48%. |
| What else was confirmed? | Reported factThe insurer is projected to report quarterly revenue of $23.29 billion, a 4.83% year-over-year increase, with EPS forecast at $4.01. |
| Does the valuation support acting? | Interpretation5 stored valuation assumptions for PGR; the latest is dated 2026-06-17. |
| What would change the assessment? | UnknownPGR quarterly revenue check — Verify if Q3 revenue reaches the projected $23.29 billion threshold |
What would this event cost your holdings?
Apply your own hypothetical returns to current holding values. The calculator does not infer security effects from this event.
Test this event against my holdingsReported facts
- · Progressive (PGR) stock gained 1.56% to close at $221.02 on September 14, 2026, while the S&P 500 declined 0.48%.
- · The insurer is projected to report quarterly revenue of $23.29 billion, a 4.83% year-over-year increase, with EPS forecast at $4.01.
- · Progressive trades at a Forward P/E multiple of 12.25.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceCompleted event assessment
defensive property-casualty premium inflow and low-multiple rerating
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Assumption | Progressive (PGR) stock gained 1.56% to close at $221.02 on September 14, 2026, while the S&P 500 declined 0.48%. | 2026-09-15 |
| Interpretation | defensive property-casualty premium inflow and low-multiple rerating | PGR |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
Underwriting margins outperform consensus, driving revenue beyond the $23.29 billion estimate.
- · PGR quarterly revenue check — Verify if Q3 revenue reaches the projected $23.29 billion threshold
- Progressive (PGR) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know · 2026-09-14
What remains unresolved
- Base path
- PGR sustains low-beta outperformance around $220 supported by its 12.25x forward earnings valuation.
- Adverse path
- Severe catastrophe losses compress quarterly EPS below the $4.01 forecast.
- Supportive path
- Underwriting margins outperform consensus, driving revenue beyond the $23.29 billion estimate.
- · PGR quarterly revenue check — Verify if Q3 revenue reaches the projected $23.29 billion thresholdnext month
Evidence
- Progressive (PGR) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know2026-09-14
“Progressive (PGR) closed at $221.02, up 1.56% and outperforming the S&P 500's 0.48% decline. The insurer is projected to report earnings of $4.01 per share (down 0.99% YoY) with revenue expected at $23.29 billion (up 4.83%). Progressive holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 12.25”
Supports: PGR rose 1.56% to $221.02, trading at 12.25x forward P/E with expected revenue of $23.29B and EPS of $4.01.