TSMC forecasted for 52% EPS and 38% revenue growth on leading-edge node demand
Resolved · earnings · Occurred · Assessed · 1 sources
This assessment is dated 2026-09-19. Check what remains unresolved below before relying on it.
Does the new outlook change what the company is worth?
High wafer fab utilization across 3nm and 5nm nodes lifts TSMC gross margins, flowing directly into semiconductor capital equipment demand.
| Question | What the evidence establishes |
|---|---|
| What was reported? | Reported factTSMC shares closed at 434.67 USD, up 1.02% during the session. |
| What else was confirmed? | Reported factConsensus projections forecast TSMC Q3 earnings per share of 4.45 USD, a 52.4% year-over-year increase. |
| Does the valuation support acting? | Interpretation5 stored valuation assumptions for TSM; the latest is dated 2026-09-09. |
| What would change the assessment? | UnknownTSMC monthly sales disclosure — Tracking run-rate against 45.54B USD quarterly consensus |
What would this event cost your holdings?
Apply your own hypothetical returns to current holding values. The calculator does not infer security effects from this event.
Test this event against my holdingsReported facts
- · TSMC shares closed at 434.67 USD, up 1.02% during the session.
- · Consensus projections forecast TSMC Q3 earnings per share of 4.45 USD, a 52.4% year-over-year increase.
- · Quarterly revenue is forecasted at 45.54 billion USD, representing 37.59% year-over-year top-line expansion.
- · TSMC trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 26.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceCompleted event assessment
leading-edge wafer revenue growth expanding net margin
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Assumption | TSMC shares closed at 434.67 USD, up 1.02% during the session. | 2026-09-19 |
| Interpretation | leading-edge wafer revenue growth expanding net margin | TSM |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
Actual quarterly revenue exceeds 45.54B USD driven by higher blended average selling prices on advanced nodes.
- · TSMC monthly sales disclosure — Tracking run-rate against 45.54B USD quarterly consensus
- TSMC (TSM) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know · 2026-09-18
What remains unresolved
- Base path
- TSMC meets 52.4% EPS growth targets with full utilization across N3 and N2 customer pipelines.
- Adverse path
- Non-AI consumer electronics weakness dampens mature node utilization rates.
- Supportive path
- Actual quarterly revenue exceeds 45.54B USD driven by higher blended average selling prices on advanced nodes.
- · TSMC monthly sales disclosure — Tracking run-rate against 45.54B USD quarterly consensusnext month
Evidence
- TSMC (TSM) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know2026-09-18
“TSMC (TSM) closed at $434.67, up 1.02%, outperforming the S&P 500. The chip company is forecasted to report EPS of $4.45 (up 52.4% YoY) and revenue of $45.54 billion (up 37.59% YoY).”
Supports: TSMC forecasted for 4.45 USD EPS and 45.54B USD revenue