US national debt crosses $40T with annual interest expense reaching $1.25T
Resolved · macro data · Occurred · Assessed · 1 sources
This assessment is dated 2026-09-28. Check what remains unresolved below before relying on it.
What changed relative to expectations?
Annualized interest servicing costs of $1.25 trillion expand federal deficit issuance, pressuring long-end Treasury term premiums and TLT valuations.
| Question | What the evidence establishes |
|---|---|
| What was reported? | Reported factUnited States national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. |
| What else was confirmed? | Reported factAnnualized net interest costs on federal debt reached $1.25 trillion in 2025. |
| Does the valuation support acting? | UnknownRequires applying the change to specific holdings. |
| What would change the assessment? | UnknownUS Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements and auction sizes — Monitoring upcoming 10Y and 30Y Treasury auction dealer bid-to-cover ratios. |
What would this event cost your holdings?
Apply your own hypothetical returns to current holding values. The calculator does not infer security effects from this event.
Test this event against my holdingsReported facts
- · United States national debt has surpassed $40 trillion.
- · Annualized net interest costs on federal debt reached $1.25 trillion in 2025.
- · Howard Marks highlighted the milestone, advising portfolios to emphasize pricing power and geographic revenue diversification.
Public research record
Research framework · page evidenceCompleted event assessment
higher term premium via elevated Treasury auction supply
| Type | Claim | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Assumption | United States national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. | 2026-09-28 |
| Interpretation | higher term premium via elevated Treasury auction supply | TLT |
Countercase, invalidators, and sources
Deficit containment discussions or strong foreign central bank demand at auctions cap 10Y and 30Y Treasury yield upside.
- · US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements and auction sizes — Monitoring upcoming 10Y and 30Y Treasury auction dealer bid-to-cover ratios.
- The United States Debt Just Passed an Auspicious Milestone. Here's What Legendary Value Investor Howard Marks Says Investors Should Do About It. · 2026-09-26
What remains unresolved
- Base path
- Persistent $1.25 trillion annual debt service requirements maintain elevated Treasury auction supply, keeping long-end yields elevated.
- Adverse path
- Auction tailing and rating agency debt trajectory warnings accelerate term-premium expansion, forcing sharp repricing across TLT and risk assets.
- Supportive path
- Deficit containment discussions or strong foreign central bank demand at auctions cap 10Y and 30Y Treasury yield upside.
- · US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements and auction sizes — Monitoring upcoming 10Y and 30Y Treasury auction dealer bid-to-cover ratios.this week
Evidence
- The United States Debt Just Passed an Auspicious Milestone. Here's What Legendary Value Investor Howard Marks Says Investors Should Do About It.2026-09-26
“U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion with interest costs hitting $1.25 trillion in 2025. Howard Marks advises against panic-driven portfolio changes...”
Supports: U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion with interest costs hitting $1.25 trillion in 2025.