Investment case
United States Brent Oil Fund, LP
BNO · 3 developments mapped · last assessed 2026-09-22
Market Ontology has mapped 3 macro, policy, and market developments to United States Brent Oil Fund, LP since 2026-08-28. Each one is traced from the driver to the valuation assumption it moves, and the valuation below is run on the same engine the subscription uses.
Valuation
No validated run has been published for BNO yet, so no modelled value is shown. The BNO valuation is in the public catch-up queue.
Subscribers do not wait for the weekly cycle: they run BNO on demand, against live prices and the latest filings, and change any assumption the developments below move.
Filed financials
Current case
- Strongest support
Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk
Direct exposure to Brent crude oil futures, benefiting from positive roll yield due to backwardation.
· Moves underlying asset performance, roll yield contribution
- Open question
United States Brent Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $615.3 Million
Direct: The report details the fund's specific financial performance, including net income, NAV, and share flows. The net withdrawal of shares indicates a decrease in investor capital allocated to this specific fund, which directly impacts its assets under management and potentially its operational
· Moves assets under management (aum), investor demand for oil etfs
What changed, by assumption
- 2026-09-22Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk
- 2026-09-22Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD Driven by Middle East Backwardation Roll Yield
- 2026-08-28United States Brent Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $615.3 Million
Assumption changes
Full ledger →| Date | Assumption | Direction | Why | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Valuation multiple | Bearish | Incremental float typically compresses near-term multiple absent revenue acceleration. | 0.70 |
| 2026-09-29 | Share count | Bullish | Primary equity issuance increases diluted share count. | 0.70 |
| 2026-06-29 | Net debt | Bearish | The fund reported a net loss of $127.3M and a decrease in Net Asset Value from $858.5M to $765.1M over the month of May. | 0.90 |
| 2026-06-29 | Net debt | Bullish | The fund experienced a significant monthly net loss of $127.4M and net withdrawals of $121.5M, reducing total net asset value. | 0.90 |
Event impact log
Full ledger →| Date | Mechanism | Direction | Horizon | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-09-22 | Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD Driven by Middle East Backwardation Roll Yield | Bullish | 1-3m | 0.90 |
| 2026-08-28 | United States Brent Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $615.3 Million | mixed | intraday | 0.80 |