Impact ledger

United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO): the developments shaping its investment case

Follow the evidence affecting United States Brent Oil Fund, LP's valuation assumptions. Review the key developments below. Continue in Market Ontology to test your assumptions, examine related opportunities, and save the investment case you want to track.

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Material developments

2026-09-22 · 2 reports

Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk

Channel: Direct exposure to Brent crude oil futures, benefiting from positive roll yield due to backwardation.

Bullish· 1-3m

2026-08-28

United States Brent Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $615.3 Million

Channel: Direct: The report details the fund's specific financial performance, including net income, NAV, and share flows. The net withdrawal of shares indicates a decrease in investor capital allocated to this specific fund, which directly impacts its assets under management and potentially its operational

mixed· intraday

Evidence affecting valuation assumptions

Each entry names the assumption the evidence touches and how the evidence reads. Direction describes the business mechanism, not a stock-price conclusion.

Date	Assumption	Direction	Interpretation
2026-09-29	multiple	Bearish	Incremental float typically compresses near-term multiple absent revenue acceleration.
2026-09-29	share_count	Bullish	Primary equity issuance increases diluted share count.
2026-06-29	net_debt	Bearish	The fund reported a net loss of $127.3M and a decrease in Net Asset Value from $858.5M to $765.1M over the month of May.
2026-06-29	net_debt	Bullish	The fund experienced a significant monthly net loss of $127.4M and net withdrawals of $121.5M, reducing total net asset value.

Event impact log

3 events mapped to BNO since 2026-08-28. Evidence through 2026-09-22.

Date	Event	Channel	Direction	Horizon	Impact
2026-09-22	Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD on Futures Backwardation and Mideast Risk	Direct exposure to Brent crude oil futures, benefiting from positive roll yield due to backwardation.	Bullish	1-3m	0.90
2026-09-22	Crude ETFs Gain Over 100% YTD Driven by Middle East Backwardation Roll Yield	Directly tracks Brent crude oil prices and benefits from positive roll yield in a backwardated market.	Bullish	1-3m	0.90
2026-08-28	United States Brent Oil Fund, LP Reports July 2026 Net Asset Value of $615.3 Million	Direct: The report details the fund's specific financial performance, including net income, NAV, and share flows. The net withdrawal of shares indicates a decrease in investor capital allocated to this specific fund, which directly impacts its assets under management and potentially its operational	mixed	intraday	0.80

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