Event alpha ledger
Event-based alpha, measured against a benchmark and published with its failures
Every row is a forecast that was locked at a timestamp before the outcome was known: the event, the asset, the expected direction, the horizon, and the confirmation and invalidation conditions. Once the horizon closes, the realized return is compared to the benchmark over the same window and the abnormal return is recorded, whatever it says. Rows that failed stay in the table.
Locked forecasts
120
Measured
0
Direction hit rate
-
Mean abnormal return
—
Currently unavailable — no forecast horizon has closed and been measured yet. Locked forecasts below are ex-ante records; abnormal return populates when each horizon completes.
Ledger
| Event | Asset | Locked | Direction | Horizon | Benchmark | Return | Bench | Abnormal | Max adverse | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthi forces fire missiles and drones at Riyadh after renewed advances in Yemen | TASI | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian authorities report a major Ukrainian drone and missile barrage on Moscow Oblast | RSX | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian authorities report a major Ukrainian drone and missile barrage on Moscow Oblast | BRN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Houthi forces fire missiles and drones at Riyadh after renewed advances in Yemen | BRENT | 2026-09-21 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine's drone barrage damages Moscow refinery as Russian air defenses report 1,110 drone shootdowns | ULSD | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli forces shell southern Lebanon with phosphorus munitions and ignite fields | TA-35 | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine's drone barrage damages Moscow refinery as Russian air defenses report 1,110 drone shootdowns | BRENT | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukrainian forces launch their largest combined missile and drone strike on Moscow Oblast during Russia's election weekend | XAU | 2026-09-21 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukrainian forces launch their largest combined missile and drone strike on Moscow Oblast during Russia's election weekend | RUB | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukrainian forces launch their largest combined missile and drone strike on Moscow Oblast during Russia's election weekend | MOEX | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oman postpones a planned regional summit on the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel → Bullish BDRY | BDRY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Houthi forces fire missiles and drones at Riyadh after renewed advances in Yemen | BATS.L | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine's drone barrage damages Moscow refinery as Russian air defenses report 1,110 drone shootdowns | ROSN | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli forces shell southern Lebanon with phosphorus munitions and ignite fields | ELBIT SYSTEMS | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ayvens Unveils 2029 Plan Targeting 14-16% ROTE and ~12.5% CET1 Ratio | SCGLY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | USO | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Pipeline Highlights $190B Amazon and $124B Alphabet Holdings | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian defense ministry vows to intensify strikes on Kyiv after Moscow drone attack | UAH | 2026-09-21 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Boeing wins $552M Navy award for three MQ-25A Stingray refueling drones | BA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ackman deploys $5B closed-end fund with 45% concentration in META, MSFT, and UBER | UBER | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC Raises Rates 25 Bps to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh Emphasizes 2% Target | DGS10 | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian defense ministry vows to intensify strikes on Kyiv after Moscow drone attack | RTX | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Bristol Myers Squibb growth portfolio reaches 60% of revenue following Q2 EPS surge | BMY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart secures conditional bank charter approval to scale deposit-funded lending | SOFI | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square USA deploys 45% of $5B fund into Microsoft, Meta, and Uber | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| The Trade Desk guides revenue down 12% YoY as stock extends 90% drawdown to $14 | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart Receives Conditional Bank Charter to Shift Toward Deposit-Funded Model | UPST | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Defense primes sustain elevated backlogs with RTX order book reaching $289B | ITA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments lifts dividend 7% as Q2 data center analog revenue doubles | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments lifts dividend 7% as Q2 data center analog revenue doubles | AVGO | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| S&P 500 top 10 weighting hits 40% as AI mega-caps dominate index concentration | SPY | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine expands long-range strikes on Moscow refinery and Russian oil infrastructure → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Q2 revenue rises 23% YoY as data center sales double | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC Raises Rates 25 Bps to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh Emphasizes 2% Target | SPY | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.0% Against 1.1% S&P 500 Dividend Yield | SPY | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Amazon and Alphabet hold $190.4B and $124.3B implied stakes ahead of Anthropic IPO | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart conditional bank charter approval follows SoFi deposit growth to $45.5B | SOFI | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO exposure highlights $190B Amazon and $124B Alphabet equity stakes | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | CPER | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure as Moscow rejects energy ceasefire | BNO | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Micron Q4 FY2026 guidance indicates record quarterly profit on memory pricing | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Berkshire Establishes Major Alphabet Holding Under Abel Portfolio Shift | BRK.B | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Highlights $190B Amazon and $124B Alphabet Stakes and Cloud Tie-Ups | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO setup spotlights Amazon and Alphabet equity stakes and cloud commitments | AVGO | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Highlights $190B Amazon and $124B Alphabet Stakes and Cloud Tie-Ups | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Micron FY2026 Guidance Targets ~$35B Profit on High Memory Pricing | MU | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ayvens targets 14%-16% ROTE and 12.5% CET1 ratio in 2029 strategic roadmap | SCGLY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Bristol Myers Squibb growth portfolio reaches 60% of revenue with 153% Q2 EPS growth | XLV | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| 10-Year Treasury yield approaches 5% as S&P 500 dividend yield holds at 1.1% | GLD | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square Concentrates 45% of $5B Fund in META, MSFT, and UBER | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Pipeline Highlights $190B Amazon and $124B Alphabet Holdings | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Boeing Awarded $552M U.S. Navy Contract for Three MQ-25A Refueling Drones | ITA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Q2 revenue rises 23% YoY as data center sales double | TXN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO setup spotlights Amazon and Alphabet equity stakes and cloud commitments | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Apple Sets October 23 Launch for $1,999 Foldable iPhone Duo | QQQ | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Applied Materials and Nvidia data points outline semi revenue scale and capex dependency | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 5.0% Against 1.1% S&P 500 Dividend Yield | DGS10 | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Amazon and Alphabet hold $190.4B and $124.3B implied stakes ahead of Anthropic IPO | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Defense primes sustain elevated backlogs with RTX order book reaching $289B | NOC | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| People's Bank of China leaves benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a 16th straight mon → Bearish FXI | FXI | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO setup spotlights Amazon and Alphabet equity stakes and cloud commitments | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square USA deploys 45% of $5B fund into Microsoft, Meta, and Uber | MSFT | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ackman deploys $5B closed-end fund with 45% concentration in META, MSFT, and UBER | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Berkshire Establishes Major Alphabet Holding Under Abel Portfolio Shift | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square USA Deploys 45% of $5B Fund Across Meta, Microsoft, and Uber | META | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Defense primes sustain elevated backlogs with RTX order book reaching $289B | RTX | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC raises policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% under Chair Warsh | MSFT | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| 10-Year Treasury Yields Near 5% as S&P 500 Dividend Payout Compresses to 1.1% | KO | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Boeing secures $552M US Navy contract for three MQ-25A refueling drones | BA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart pursues national bank charter following SoFi deposit base expansion to $45.5B | SOFI | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Fed raises target rate to 3.75%-4.00% as Warsh targets inflation objective | GLD | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure as Moscow rejects energy ceasefire | MOEX | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square USA Deploys 45% of $5B Fund Across Meta, Microsoft, and Uber | UBER | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments lifts dividend 7% as Q2 data center analog revenue doubles | TXN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Apple Schedules $1,999 Foldable iPhone Duo Launch for October 23 Amid $5T Valuation Push | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ackman deploys $5B closed-end fund with 45% concentration in META, MSFT, and UBER | META | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Apple sets iPhone Duo foldable launch for Oct 23 at $1,999 price point | AAPL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Q2 revenue rises 23% YoY as data center sales double | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Higher Policy Rates Diverge Industrial Vulnerability from AI Power Backlogs | GEV | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Preps Capitalization of Amazon and Alphabet Minority Stakes | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Positions Amazon and Alphabet for Cloud and Equity Gains | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC Raises Policy Rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% with Hawkish Forward Stance | SPY | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Preps Capitalization of Amazon and Alphabet Minority Stakes | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart Obtains Conditional Bank Charter Approval Following SoFi Model | UPST | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| The Trade Desk guides to 12% revenue contraction after 90% drawdown — TTD adtech multiple reset | TTD | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square Concentrates 45% of $5B Fund in MSFT, META, and UBER | MSFT | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO marks Amazon’s 20% stake at $190.4B — AMZN cloud and balance-sheet re-rate | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Bristol Myers Squibb Posts $12.9B Revenue as New Therapies Reach 60% of Mix | BMY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Higher Policy Rates Diverge Industrial Vulnerability from AI Power Backlogs | CAT | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Rivian CFO Claire McDonough Departs for GE Vernova After Six-Year Tenure | GEV | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Argan Q2 Earnings Rise 50.4% as Power Segment Margins Expand | AGX | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Boosts Dividend 7% as Data Center Chip Demand Doubles | TXN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| WTW Inks Global Agreement with Zurich Insurance to Deploy Radar Analytics Software | WTW | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Western Digital Generates $3.51B FY2026 FCF and Guides Q1 Revenue to $4.1B | STX | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ayvens Upgrades 2029 Strategic Targets with 14%-16% ROTE Goal | SCGLY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Boosts Dividend 7% as Data Center Chip Demand Doubles | STM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Braze Beats Q2 Expectations With EPS of $0.19 on $227.2M Revenue | BRZE | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| PG&E Drops 25% on California SB 492 Amendment Stripping Utility Lawsuit Protections | XLU | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Fintech Lending Models Diverge as SoFi Deposits Reach $45.5B and Upstart Advances Charter | SOFI | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| CRISPR Therapeutics Expands Casgevy Label to Pediatric Patients Aged 2+ | CRSP | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as 10Y nears 5.0% — QQQ duration multiples re-price lower | QQQ | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| California SB 492 removes PG&E lawsuit shields after 25% drop — PCG liability overhang re-prices | PCG | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Positions Amazon and Alphabet for Cloud and Equity Gains | AMZN | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| AMAT Generates $28.4B Revenue as Semi Capex Diverges from NVDA 55.6% Net Margins | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Highlights $190.4B Amazon and $124.3B Alphabet Equity Stakes | GOOGL | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| CRISPR Therapeutics Expands Casgevy Label to Pediatric Patients Aged 2+ | VRTX | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| NextEra Secures $1.9B DOE Loan Guarantee for Nuclear Restart | NEE | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Anthropic IPO Highlights $190.4B Amazon and $124.3B Alphabet Equity Stakes | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| The Trade Desk Drops 90% to $14 Following 12% Revenue Guidance Decline | META | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Rallies 3.3% on 7% Dividend Hike and Doubling Data Center Revenue | NVDA | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Bristol Myers Squibb Posts $12.9B Revenue as New Therapies Reach 60% of Mix | XLV | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Dentsply Sirona Beats Q2 Adjusted EPS Consensus at $0.52 and Reaffirms FY26 Outlook | XRAY | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| S&P 500 Top 10 Weight Reaches 40% Driven by AI Mega-Cap Concentration | SPY | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as 10-Year Yield Approaches 5.0% | QQQ | 2026-09-21 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Pershing Square Concentrates 45% of $5B Fund in MSFT, META, and UBER | META | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Broadcom Projected for 60% Custom AI ASIC Share by 2027 vs Marvell at 20-25% | AVGO | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| TSMC Reaches Record Gross Margins Supported by Over 70% Global Foundry Share | TSM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Upstart Obtains Conditional Bank Charter Approval Following SoFi Model | SOFI | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Texas Instruments Rallies 3.3% on 7% Dividend Hike and Data Center Growth | STM | 2026-09-21 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
Monitor events like thisAlerts fire on the same confirmation conditions recorded in the ledger.
Methodology
Forecast lock. A forecast enters the ledger when it is first published in the product. The locked timestamp is the record's creation time and is never re-inferred after the outcome is known. Rows cannot be edited post hoc; a revised view is a new row.
Abnormal return. Realized asset return over the stated horizon minus the benchmark return over the identical window. Equity forecasts use SPY; cross-asset forecasts use a composite of the instrument's own asset class. The measurement job fits a pre-event beta on the sixty sessions ending five sessions before the event, then subtracts the beta-scaled benchmark return.
Excursions. Maximum favorable and maximum adverse excursion are measured on closing prices within the horizon, so a row that ended flat after a large drawdown is still visible as a drawdown.
Failures. Direction misses and invalidations stay in the table and in the aggregate statistics. Hit rate is computed over measured rows only; pending rows are excluded from every aggregate and counted separately.
Limits. Hit rate on a small measured sample is not evidence of skill. Horizons overlap, so cumulative abnormal return is not a portfolio return and must not be read as one. No transaction costs, borrow costs, or slippage are applied.