Event alpha ledger
Event-based alpha, measured against a benchmark and published with its failures
Every row is a forecast that was locked at a timestamp before the outcome was known: the event, the asset, the expected direction, the horizon, and the confirmation and invalidation conditions. Once the horizon closes, the realized return is compared to the benchmark over the same window and the abnormal return is recorded, whatever it says. Rows that failed stay in the table.
As of 2026-07-27 10:55Z·Methodology mo-seo-2026.07·Reviewed by Market Ontology Research
Locked forecasts
120
Measured
0
Direction hit rate
—
Mean abnormal return
—
Currently unavailable — no forecast horizon has closed and been measured yet. Locked forecasts below are ex-ante records; abnormal return populates when each horizon completes.
Ledger
| Event | Asset | Locked | Direction | Horizon | Benchmark | Return | Bench | Abnormal | Max adverse | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPG Photonics to Acquire Lumibird Medical for €300 Million → Bullish IPGP | IPGP | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| AST SpaceMobile Plunges 16% on $1B Convertible Note Offering → Bearish ASTS | ASTS | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Boeing June Deliveries Hit 64 Jets, Best First Half Since 2018 → Bullish BA | BA | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| RENK Group Acquires David Brown Defence to Strengthen Naval Market Position → Bullish RKGRY | RKGRY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Indium Phosphide Wafer Market Projected to Triple by 2035 on AI Demand → Bullish AXTI | AXTI | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Cooling Inflation to 3.5% Provides Tailwind for Rate-Sensitive REITs → Bullish TLT | TLT | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| IPG Photonics to Acquire Lumibird Medical for €300M to Expand Laser Platform → Bullish IPGP | IPGP | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts eighth straight night of strikes on Iran as IRGC targets US bases in Jordan, K → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf conflict escalates with U.S. and Iranian strikes reducing Strait of Hormuz vessel tra → Bullish GLD | GLD | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Sandisk Secures Long-Term NAND Supply Agreement with Meta → Bullish SNDK | SNDK | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran said the IAEA is investigating an overnight strike on the Darkhovin nuclear construct → Bullish GLD | GLD | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Buffett Indicator Hits Record 238.5% as Market 'Gambling' Rises → Bearish SPY | SPY | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FDA Grants Traditional Approval to Novartis Fabhalta for IgAN Treatment → Bullish NVS | NVS | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| SpaceX Falls Below $135 IPO Price; Historical Data Suggests Near-Term Pressure → Bearish SPCX | SPCX | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian missile strike on Jordan’s Aqaba and US bases kills US personnel and triggers regi → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Cooling Inflation to 3.5% Positions Realty Income as Rate-Sensitive Beneficiary → Bullish O | O | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian drones strike US military facilities in Kuwait and Jordan amid escalating regional → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| AST SpaceMobile Plunges 16.5% on $1 Billion Convertible Note Offering → Bearish ASTS | ASTS | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Cooling Inflation to 3.5% Positions Realty Income as Rate-Sensitive Beneficiary → Bullish VNQ | VNQ | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Hyperscaler Capex Commitments Signal Sustained AI Infrastructure Demand → Bullish NVDA | NVDA | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund Reports 18.4% H1 Return on Energy Strength → Bullish CVX | CVX | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| IBM Erases $67B in Value as Customers Pivot from Software to AI Hardware → Bearish IBM | IBM | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Hyperscaler Capex Commitments Signal Sustained AI Infrastructure Demand → Bullish SKHY | SKHY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Aduro Completes Phase 1 of Mexico Plastic Waste Mapping with ECOCE → Bullish ADUR | ADUR | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia batters Kyiv in major ballistic missile attack amid ongoing Ukraine war → Bullish GLD | GLD | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund Reports 18.4% H1 Return on Energy Strength → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| TSMC Capex Hike to $60-64B Triggers Semiconductor Profitability Sell-off → Bearish MU | MU | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and disrupted Gulf shipping drive Brent above $90 amid OPEC+ supp → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian overnight missile strikes hit Kyiv region, killing at least one and wounding 13 → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| American forces continued a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, es → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| IBM Erases $67B in Value After Customers Shift Spend to AI Infrastructure → Bearish IBM | IBM | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| TSMC lifts annual capex and commits extra $100 billion investment in U.S. facilities after → Bearish QQQ | QQQ | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| FDA Grants Traditional Approval to Novartis Fabhalta for IgAN Kidney Disease → Bullish NVS | NVS | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US announces renewed maritime blockade of Iranian ports and fees on Hormuz transit → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Lemonade Increases Risk Retention as AI Loss Ratio Improves to 62% → Bullish LMND | LMND | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US strikes Iran for ninth consecutive day as Hormuz shipping comes under fire → Bearish HY → Bearish HYG | HYG | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Netflix Plummets as Q3 Guidance Signals Slowest Growth in 3 Years → Bearish NFLX | NFLX | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| SpaceX Falls Below $135 IPO Price; Analysts Warn of 50% Downside Risk → Bearish SPCX | SPCX | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent crude rose past $90 as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified and shipping-risk concerns → Bearish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Cooling Inflation to 3.5% Provides Tailwind for Rate-Sensitive REITs → Bullish O | O | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S.–Iran strikes escalate and sharply curtail Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Sandisk Surges 3,700% from Lows on $42B AI Memory Supply Contracts → Bullish SNDK | SNDK | 2026-07-27 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| NVIDIA and partners to expand Korea's AI factory infrastructure from 55MW to 200MW by 2028 | BN | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil drops 4% to $95 on reports of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations | USO | 2026-07-25 | bearish | 1–5 days | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| NVIDIA and partners to expand Korea's AI factory infrastructure from 55MW to 200MW by 2028 | NVDA | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Rocket Lab to acquire Iridium for $8B in vertical integration move | IRDM | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil drops 4% to $95 on reports of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations | SPY | 2026-07-25 | bullish | Intraday | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Stripe and Advent propose $53B joint acquisition of PayPal | PYPL | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US outlines potential escalation options targeting Iran’s Kharg Island export hub and nucl → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and Red Sea embargo threats tighten global crude flows → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran as Hormuz shipping falls 66% → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottleneck warnings drive renewed oil volatility → Bull → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts tenth consecutive day of strikes degrading Iranian military and maritime capab → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottleneck warnings drive renewed oil volatility → Bull → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran as Hormuz shipping falls 66% → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts tenth consecutive day of strikes degrading Iranian military and maritime capab → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and Red Sea embargo threats tighten global crude flows → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US outlines potential escalation options targeting Iran’s Kharg Island export hub and nucl → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-25 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran as Hormuz shipping falls 66% → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts tenth consecutive day of strikes degrading Iranian military and maritime capab → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and Red Sea embargo threats tighten global crude flows → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US outlines potential escalation options targeting Iran’s Kharg Island export hub and nucl → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottleneck warnings drive renewed oil volatility → Bull → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Renewed Russian strikes in eastern Ukraine reinforce safe-haven flows → Bullish GLD | GLD | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran as Hormuz shipping falls 66% → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US outlines potential escalation options targeting Iran’s Kharg Island export hub and nucl → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottleneck warnings drive renewed oil volatility → Bull → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Venezuela stayed exposed to oil-price and shipping risk as Middle East disruptions threate → Bullish USO | USO | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil markets price in elevated supply risks from Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea amid Houthi thre → Bullish HYG | HYG | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts tenth consecutive day of strikes degrading Iranian military and maritime capab → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and Red Sea embargo threats tighten global crude flows → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Qatar and Egypt join mediators proposing 10-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire focused on navigation → Bullish EEM | EEM | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic drops further amid continued US–Iran strikes → Bullish XLE → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. conducts 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Tehran hits tanker in Strait of H → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iraq signs US energy and infrastructure deals worth an estimated $200 billion → Bearish XL → Bearish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Annaly Capital EAD Exceeds Dividend for 9th Straight Quarter | NLY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Cadillac Mines Upsizes IPO to $385 Million on Strong Demand | AEM | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Bullish Receives Clearances for $4.2B Equiniti Acquisition | BLSH | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Micron Gains 3.7% as Alphabet's $200B Capex Signals Memory Demand | MU | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Sanofi Halts Development of Amlitelimab for Atopic Dermatitis | SNY | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Alphabet Capex Hike Triggers Tech Sell-off; Amazon and Tesla Under Pressure | AMZN | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Alphabet Hits $200B Capex Club; Amazon Shares Slide on Spending Fears | AMZN | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil Risks | DGS10 | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent Crude Tops $100 on Red Sea Tanker Attacks; Goldman Warns of $120 | CVX | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Vistra Energy Gains Traction as AI Data Center Power Play | VST | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| ALPHEA Secures $5M for AI-Native Distributed Cloud | TLPH | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| DSV Reports DKK 6.25B EBIT; Signals Resilience in Logistics | DSDVY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump Admin Launches 'Project Prometheus' for AI-Focused Nuclear Power | SMR | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil Risks | NVDA | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Alphabet Hits $200B Capex Club; Amazon Shares Slide on Spending Fears | MU | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Alphabet Capex Hike Triggers Tech Sell-off; Amazon and Tesla Under Pressure | MU | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent Crude Tops $100 on Red Sea Tanker Attacks; Goldman Warns of $120 | USO | 2026-07-24 | bullish | Intraday | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil | DGS2 | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent Crude Tops $100 Following Houthi Attacks on Saudi Tankers | CVX | 2026-07-24 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump Admin Launches 'Project Prometheus' for AI-Focused Nuclear Power | OKLO | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| July Fed Hike Probability Triples to 34.7% on Inflation and Oil | DXY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent Crude Tops $100 Following Houthi Attacks on Saudi Tankers | USO | 2026-07-24 | bullish | Intraday | cross-asset composite | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Scribe Therapeutics Prices $128.7M IPO; Sanofi Takes Stake | SNY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Venezuela stayed exposed to oil-price and shipping risk as Middle East disruptions threate → Bullish USO | USO | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz attacks and Red Sea embargo threats tighten global crude flows → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran as Hormuz shipping falls 66% → Bullish → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US outlines potential escalation options targeting Iran’s Kharg Island export hub and nucl → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XOM | XOM | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive oil risk premia as Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exce → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Gulf tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottleneck warnings drive renewed oil volatility → Bull → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China summoned the Philippine ambassador after a Second Thomas Shoal encounter → Bullish F → Bullish FXI | FXI | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Houthis declare sea embargo on Saudi Arabia as part of escalating regional confrontation → → Bullish XOM | XOM | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil markets price in elevated supply risks from Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea amid Houthi thre → Bullish HYG | HYG | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US conducts tenth consecutive day of strikes degrading Iranian military and maritime capab → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. forces began striking Iranian military targets for an 11th straight night, Reuters re → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic drops further amid continued US–Iran strikes → Bullish XLE → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi crude tankers reroute in Red Sea amid security concerns, raising OPEC+ supply route → Bearish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iraq signs US energy and infrastructure deals worth an estimated $200 billion → Bearish XL → Bearish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. forces began striking Iranian military targets for an 11th straight night, Reuters re → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. conducts 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Tehran hits tanker in Strait of H → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Qatar and Egypt join mediators proposing 10-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire focused on navigation → Bullish EEM | EEM | 2026-07-24 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
Monitor events like thisAlerts fire on the same confirmation conditions recorded in the ledger.
Methodology
Forecast lock. A forecast enters the ledger when it is first published in the product. The locked timestamp is the record's creation time and is never re-inferred after the outcome is known. Rows cannot be edited post hoc; a revised view is a new row.
Abnormal return. Realized asset return over the stated horizon minus the benchmark return over the identical window. Equity forecasts use SPY; cross-asset forecasts use a composite of the instrument's own asset class. The measurement job fits a pre-event beta on the sixty sessions ending five sessions before the event, then subtracts the beta-scaled benchmark return.
Excursions. Maximum favorable and maximum adverse excursion are measured on closing prices within the horizon, so a row that ended flat after a large drawdown is still visible as a drawdown.
Failures. Direction misses and invalidations stay in the table and in the aggregate statistics. Hit rate is computed over measured rows only; pending rows are excluded from every aggregate and counted separately.
Limits. Hit rate on a small measured sample is not evidence of skill. Horizons overlap, so cumulative abnormal return is not a portfolio return and must not be read as one. No transaction costs, borrow costs, or slippage are applied.