Event alpha ledger
Event-based alpha, measured against a benchmark and published with its failures
Every row is a forecast that was locked at a timestamp before the outcome was known: the event, the asset, the expected direction, the horizon, and the confirmation and invalidation conditions. Once the horizon closes, the realized return is compared to the benchmark over the same window and the abnormal return is recorded, whatever it says. Rows that failed stay in the table.
As of 2026-08-19 00:49Z·Methodology mo-seo-2026.07·Reviewed by Market Ontology Research
Locked forecasts
120
Measured
0
Direction hit rate
—
Mean abnormal return
—
Currently unavailable — no forecast horizon has closed and been measured yet. Locked forecasts below are ex-ante records; abnormal return populates when each horizon completes.
Ledger
| Event | Asset | Locked | Direction | Horizon | Benchmark | Return | Bench | Abnormal | Max adverse | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan's economy expands 1.1% in Q2 as private consumption and business investment weaken | JGB 10Y | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump vows to impose unprecedented new sanctions on Iran as Treasury signals measures of a → Bearish HYG | HYG | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches one of its largest drone assaults on Russia, striking Moscow-area logistics and industrial sites | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Senior Iranian official says Tehran will adopt a fully offensive posture if talks with Washington fail | XAR | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Senior Iranian official says Tehran will shift to a fully offensive military posture | ITA | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US retail sales data pushes markets to price lower odds of an imminent Federal Reserve rat → Bearish DXY | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US retail sales data pushes markets to price lower odds of an imminent Federal Reserve rat → Bullish TLT | TLT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Traders cut odds of a Fed hike after weak U.S. data reduce tightening bets → Bullish IEF | IEF | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's National Bureau of Statistics says industrial output rose 4.5% in July as investme → Bearish HK地产指数 | HK地产指数 | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Senior Iranian official says Tehran will adopt a fully offensive posture if talks with Washington fail | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brazil central bank activity index posts June drop and signals weaker second-quarter growth | EWZ | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches more than 600 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight | IMOEX | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| At least 10 Russian regions tighten petrol sales as Ukraine strikes energy infrastructure, report says | RB-1 | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz stay in single digits as traffic remains subdued | BDRY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Senior Iranian official says Tehran will shift to a fully offensive military posture | BDRY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian negotiator Qalibaf says the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until U.S. terms are met | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine attacks a Russian rocket fuel plant in the Rostov region, military says | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia's Defense Ministry says air defenses intercept 791 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions | RTS | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| At least 10 Russian regions tighten petrol sales as Ukraine strikes energy infrastructure, report says | IMOEX | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli warplanes hit Abu al-Duhur military airport runway in northwest Syria, local media say | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine strikes Russian ports and oil terminals in Novorossiysk, reports say | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump warns new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports will take effect as Washington and Ottawa → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israel strikes Abu al-Duhur military airport in Syria, drawing regional condemnation | BRENT CRUDE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Yemen's National Defence Council orders expanded strikes against Houthi targets after Red → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian negotiator Qalibaf says the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until U.S. terms are met | OMXAD | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil settles at its highest level in more than three weeks as U.S.-Iran peace hopes fade | XLE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US Central Command says the US Navy turned away 64 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July | BRENT CRUDE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UK maritime agency reports vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz | VLCC | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises as fading US-Iran peace hopes raise supply risks | WTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says | BDTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia's Defense Ministry says air defenses intercept 791 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco offers more tankers to load as it resumes shipments inside Hormuz | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| At least 10 Russian regions tighten petrol sales as Ukraine strikes energy infrastructure, report says | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli warplanes hit Abu al-Duhur military airport runway in northwest Syria, local media say | SYRIA SOVEREIGN RISK | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises as fading US-Iran peace hopes raise supply risks | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran as he reiterates the Strait of Hormuz is op → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil settles at its highest level in more than three weeks as U.S.-Iran peace hopes fade | TIP | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches one of its largest drone attacks of 2026 against Moscow and surrounding regions | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia kills at least 10 civilians in missile strike on Pechenihy in Ukraine's Kharkiv region | OIL | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israel strikes Abu al-Duhur military airport in Syria, drawing regional condemnation | SYRIA SOVEREIGN RISK | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil prices rise as fading U.S.-Iran peace hopes revive supply-risk premium | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says the United States has no talks planned with Iran as he backs open Strait of Hormuz transit | WTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says the United States has no talks planned with Iran as he backs open Strait of Hormuz transit | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Benchmark tanker rates surge as traders price a prolonged Hormuz crisis | FRO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine attacks a Russian rocket fuel plant in the Rostov region, military says | RSX | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UK maritime agency reports vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz | LON:MRO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches more than 600 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil settles at its highest level in more than three weeks as U.S.-Iran peace hopes fade | JETS | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran says its 60-day negotiation deadline with Washington is null and void → Bullish USO | USO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian negotiator Qalibaf says the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until U.S. terms are met | BDRY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli warplanes hit Abu al-Duhur military airport runway in northwest Syria, local media say | TA-35 | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil prices rise as fading U.S.-Iran peace hopes revive supply-risk premium | JETS | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz stay in single digits as traffic remains subdued | BNO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UK maritime agency reports vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says | TANK | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil prices rise as fading U.S.-Iran peace hopes revive supply-risk premium | WTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches more than 600 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight | WTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz stay in single digits as traffic remains subdued | USO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US Central Command says the US Navy turned away 64 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July | GCZ6 | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia kills at least 10 civilians in missile strike on Pechenihy in Ukraine's Kharkiv region | UAH | 2026-08-19 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco resumes oil loading from inside the Strait of Hormuz | DFL | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Benchmark tanker rates surge as traders price a prolonged Hormuz crisis | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Benchmark tanker rates surge as traders price a prolonged Hormuz crisis | EURN | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Yemen’s National Defence Council orders expanded strikes on Houthi targets → Bullish BDRY | BDRY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Canada annual inflation rises to 3% in July as gasoline prices climb, Statistics Canada sa → Bearish FTS | FTS | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine strikes Russian ports and oil terminals in Novorossiysk, reports say | RUB | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises as fading US-Iran peace hopes raise supply risks | XLE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump warns new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports will take effect as Washington and Ottawa → Bearish XLY | XLY | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine attacks a Russian rocket fuel plant in the Rostov region, military says | DEFENCE SECTOR EUROPE | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US Central Command says the US Navy turned away 64 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-July | VLCC RATES | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco resumes oil loadings and sales from inside the Strait of Hormuz → Bullish BRENT | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says the United States has no talks planned with Iran as he backs open Strait of Hormuz transit | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine strikes Russian ports and oil terminals in Novorossiysk, reports say | BDRY | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco offers more tankers to load as it resumes shipments inside Hormuz | SPGC | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Senior Iranian official says Tehran will shift to a fully offensive military posture | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco offers more tankers to load as it resumes shipments inside Hormuz | BDTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Ukraine launches one of its largest drone attacks of 2026 against Moscow and surrounding regions | MOEX | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Saudi Aramco resumes oil loading from inside the Strait of Hormuz | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran and none are scheduled | DXY | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran and none are scheduled | BRENT | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| TSMC 73% foundry share captures $600B hyperscaler capex — TSM advanced-node margin re-rate | TSM | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Alphabet lifts 2026 capex to $205B with $514B Cloud backlog — GOOGL AI-demand validation | GOOGL | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran says Hormuz stays shut as US Navy turned away 64 vessels — USO crude supply-shock repricing | USO | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump memory-chip policy and SK Hynix 20.6% weekly surge — MU allied-HBM pricing power re-rate | MU | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Nvidia 86% AI-chip share into Aug 26 earnings high bar — NVDA sell-the-news downside repricing | NVDA | 2026-08-19 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran and none are scheduled | WTI | 2026-08-19 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| European Union moves to increase the number of sanctioned Russian entities by a third → Bearish MOEX | MOEX | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UAE says Iran attacked a third ADNOC vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, WAM reports | BRENT | 2026-08-18 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran says it is finalizing a joint statement with Oman on managing Strait of Hormuz shipping | BRN | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Japan's economy grows 1.1% annualized in April-June as private consumption softens → Bearish JPY | JPY | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brazil's central bank activity index shows the economy expanded only 0.2% in the second qu → Bearish EWZ | EWZ | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says the United States is still far from a deal with Iran and warns Oman over Hormuz → Bullish XLE | XLE | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Washington and Tehran let their memorandum on ending fighting expire without extension → B → Bullish USO | USO | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says the bloc intends to expand sanctions against Russia | BRENT | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian military leaders pledge continued resistance and announce cash rewards for killing → Bullish XAUUSD | XAUUSD | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says the bloc intends to expand sanctions against Russia | RUBUSD | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UAE says Iran attacked a third ADNOC vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, WAM reports | ADNOC | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. retail sales data weakens, prompting markets to scale back Fed rate-hike bets | TLT | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UAE says Iran attacked a third ADNOC vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, WAM reports | RDSA | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. retail sales data weakens, prompting markets to scale back Fed rate-hike bets | EURUSD | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. retail sales data weakens, prompting markets to scale back Fed rate-hike bets | DXY | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's National Bureau of Statistics says retail sales and investment missed expectations → Bearish FXI | FXI | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent and WTI rise as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions revive supply-risk premium → Bullish CL=F | CL=F | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil prices rise as fading U.S.-Iran peace hopes lift supply risks | BRENT | 2026-08-18 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's state shippers keep oil tankers outside the Gulf to avoid Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb | VLCC RATES | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft push $600B AI capex as TSM holds 73% share — TSM foundry margin re-rate | TSM | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Canada and the United States hold intense tariff talks ahead of new U.S. deadline | CAD | 2026-08-18 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft AI capex reaches $600B; Alphabet backlog hits $514B | TSM | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–3 months | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Moody's raises South Korea growth forecast to 3.5% on a semiconductor boom | 000660.KS | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Yemen's National Defence Council orders expanded strikes against Houthi targets after Red Sea attacks | XLE | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US Central Command reports extensive enforcement of Iran naval blockade with dozens of commercial vessels redirected and several disabled | DUBAI_CRUDE | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russia intensifies strikes on Naftogaz facilities as Ukraine warns of winter supply damage | EOG | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Moody's raises South Korea growth forecast to 3.5% on a semiconductor boom | 005930.KS | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Coca-Cola Outperforms 'Magnificent Seven' in 2026 Amid Sector Rotation | KO | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Coca-Cola Outperforms 'Magnificent Seven' in 2026 Amid Sector Rotation | PG | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian drones and missiles damage Naftogaz facilities for a 13th time this week, company says | TTF | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US Policy Shift Favors Allied Memory Makers Over Chinese Suppliers | MU | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump says no talks are taking place with Iran as he reiterates the Strait of Hormuz is open | DXY | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| UKMTO says a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hor → Bullish BRENT | BRENT | 2026-08-18 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
Monitor events like thisAlerts fire on the same confirmation conditions recorded in the ledger.
Methodology
Forecast lock. A forecast enters the ledger when it is first published in the product. The locked timestamp is the record's creation time and is never re-inferred after the outcome is known. Rows cannot be edited post hoc; a revised view is a new row.
Abnormal return. Realized asset return over the stated horizon minus the benchmark return over the identical window. Equity forecasts use SPY; cross-asset forecasts use a composite of the instrument's own asset class. The measurement job fits a pre-event beta on the sixty sessions ending five sessions before the event, then subtracts the beta-scaled benchmark return.
Excursions. Maximum favorable and maximum adverse excursion are measured on closing prices within the horizon, so a row that ended flat after a large drawdown is still visible as a drawdown.
Failures. Direction misses and invalidations stay in the table and in the aggregate statistics. Hit rate is computed over measured rows only; pending rows are excluded from every aggregate and counted separately.
Limits. Hit rate on a small measured sample is not evidence of skill. Horizons overlap, so cumulative abnormal return is not a portfolio return and must not be read as one. No transaction costs, borrow costs, or slippage are applied.