Event alpha ledger
Event-based alpha, measured against a benchmark and published with its failures
Every row is a forecast that was locked at a timestamp before the outcome was known: the event, the asset, the expected direction, the horizon, and the confirmation and invalidation conditions. Once the horizon closes, the realized return is compared to the benchmark over the same window and the abnormal return is recorded, whatever it says. Rows that failed stay in the table.
Locked forecasts
120
Measured
0
Direction hit rate
-
Mean abnormal return
—
Currently unavailable — no forecast horizon has closed and been measured yet. Locked forecasts below are ex-ante records; abnormal return populates when each horizon completes.
Ledger
| Event | Asset | Locked | Direction | Horizon | Benchmark | Return | Bench | Abnormal | Max adverse | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanese village of Mansouri | EWW | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanese village of Mansouri | BRN | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanese village of Mansouri | USDILS | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds | GC=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's underlying inflation quickens and September factory activity stays in expansion | MCHI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's underlying inflation quickens and September factory activity stays in expansion | CNY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Japan's core inflation rises to 2.6% in August as the Composite PMI stays above 50 | JP10Y | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Governor Greg Abbott issues a statewide disaster proclamation as Texas diesel prices hit a record | USO | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook says AI demand and higher oil prices will keep inflationary pressure elevated | TLT | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Governor Greg Abbott issues a statewide disaster proclamation as Texas diesel prices hit a record | JJC | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's underlying inflation quickens and September factory activity stays in expansion | CN10Y | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Governor Greg Abbott issues a statewide disaster proclamation as Texas diesel prices hit a record | XLI | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Japan's core inflation rises to 2.6% in August as the Composite PMI stays above 50 | EWJ | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook says AI demand and higher oil prices will keep inflationary pressure elevated | XAUUSD | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook says AI demand and higher oil prices will keep inflationary pressure elevated | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Japan's core inflation rises to 2.6% in August as the Composite PMI stays above 50 | JPY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Putin orders the Russian army to expand to 1.55 million active servicemen | ITA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. mortgage rates rise above 7% for the first time since January 2025 | ITB | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals fresh measures to support the economy and stabilize the property market | HK_HSI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian forces hit Kyiv's National Academy of Sciences in daytime strikes, killing at least two people | EEM | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief as Tehran ties Hormuz reopening to conditions → Bullish BZ=F | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals new measures to support the economy and stabilise the property market | KWEB | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals fresh measures to support the economy and stabilize the property market | CSI300 | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent crude rises above $99 as conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements keep Hormuz supply risk elevated | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| QatarEnergy extends force majeure notices as Hormuz disruption blocks LNG deliveries → Bullish EUA.F | EUA.F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent crude rises above $99 as conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements keep Hormuz supply risk elevated | XLE | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief as officials pursue separate mediated talks | GLD | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian missiles and drones hit Kyiv educational and health facilities in overnight assault | RTX | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| DHI and LEN face 7% mortgages as ITB falls 9.9% in 30 days — builder margins reprice on buydowns | ITB | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran presents a seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through Qatari mediation | USO | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediated contacts in renewed effort to end seven-month war | XAUUSD | 2026-09-29 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian missiles and drones hit Kyiv educational and health facilities in overnight assault | ESGU | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran offers a seven-day ceasefire plan tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting oil sanctions | FRO | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Statistics Canada says Canada’s economy stalled in July as manufacturing and mining weakened | CNB | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals fresh measures to support the economy and stabilize the property market | 0698.HK | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US President Donald Trump says Washington will win the Iran war soon after officials speak with mediators | GC=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials held separate mediator-backed talks in a renewed effort to end the war | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediator talks on an amended ceasefire proposal | BDTI | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Tanker charter rates to India more than double as Hormuz disruption lifts shipping costs | FRO | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Putin orders the Russian army to expand to 1.55 million active servicemen | RSX | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Tanker charter rates to India more than double as Hormuz disruption lifts shipping costs | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready for nuclear talks but rejects coercion | BDTI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's economy slows to 4.3% in Q2 as investment and housing weakness deepen | 000002.SZ | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. mortgage rates rise above 7% for the first time since January 2025 | US10Y | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran keeps Hormuz restrictions as India tanker rates more than double — USO reprices seaborne supply risk | USO | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's industry ministry weighs allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to buy Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 → Bullish KWEB | KWEB | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| South Korean exports are forecast to rise for a 16th month on AI chip demand | 005930.KS | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| South Korean exports are forecast to rise for a 16th month on AI chip demand | KRW | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Nvidia expands buyback by $150B to $235B through FY2028 — NVDA downside cushion from repurchases | NVDA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's industry ministry weighs allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to buy Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 → Bullish NVDA | NVDA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| South Korean exports are forecast to rise for a 16th month on AI chip demand | 000660.KS | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| QatarEnergy extends force majeure notices as Hormuz closure disrupts LNG deliveries | EUA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian missiles and drones strike Kyiv buildings as rescuers battle fires → Bullish USD/UAH | USD/UAH | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials held separate mediator-backed talks in a renewed effort to end the war | CL=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi links Strait of Hormuz reopening to conditions in proposed seven-day plan | TD3C | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| QatarEnergy extends force majeure notices as Hormuz closure disrupts LNG deliveries | TTF | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Putin orders the Russian army to expand to 1.55 million active servicemen | RUB | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises while gold drops as Middle East risk lifts inflation and dollar expectations | GC=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian drone and missile barrage damages buildings across Kyiv and triggers air defenses → Bearish UAH | UAH | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's industry ministry weighs allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to buy Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 → Bullish BABA | BABA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediated contacts in renewed effort to end seven-month war | DCOILBRENTEU | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Statistics Canada says Canada’s economy stalled in July as manufacturing and mining weakened | CADUSD | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises while gold drops as Middle East risk lifts inflation and dollar expectations | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi links Strait of Hormuz reopening to conditions in proposed seven-day plan | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian forces hit Kyiv's National Academy of Sciences in daytime strikes, killing at least two people | UAH | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| QatarEnergy extends force majeure notices as Hormuz closure disrupts LNG deliveries | JKM | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready for nuclear talks but rejects coercion | USO | 2026-09-29 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds as mediated contacts resume | XAUUSD | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediator talks on an amended ceasefire proposal | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief as officials pursue separate mediated talks | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or access to frozen funds in exchange for nucl → Bullish GLD | GLD | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Tanker charter rates to India more than double as Hormuz disruption lifts shipping costs | XLE | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Brent crude rises above $99 as conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements keep Hormuz supply risk elevated | TLT | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises while gold drops as Middle East risk lifts inflation and dollar expectations | TLT | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's economy slows to 4.3% in Q2 as investment and housing weakness deepen | CNH | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal Sparking Energy Spike and Multi-Decade High Yields → Bearish QQQ | QQQ | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready for nuclear talks but rejects coercion | BZ1! | 2026-09-29 | bearish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Statistics Canada says Canada’s economy stalled in July as manufacturing and mining weakened | TSE60 | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi links Strait of Hormuz reopening to conditions in proposed seven-day plan | JKM | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Donald Trump rejected reports that his administration offered Iran sanctions rel → Bullish USO | USO | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil rises while gold drops as Middle East risk lifts inflation and dollar expectations | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or access to frozen funds in exchange for nucl → Bullish DXY | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran offers a seven-day ceasefire plan tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting oil sanctions | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US President Donald Trump says Washington will win the Iran war soon after officials speak with mediators | BZ=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| President Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief as officials pursue separate mediated talks | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| South Korean exports are forecast to rise for a 16th month on AI chip demand | KOSPI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's economy slows to 4.3% in Q2 as investment and housing weakness deepen | CSI300 | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| U.S. mortgage rates rise above 7% for the first time since January 2025 | XHB | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediated contacts in renewed effort to end seven-month war | TORM | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds as mediated contacts resume | IRR | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief or release of frozen funds as mediated contacts resume | CL1! | 2026-09-29 | bullish | Intraday | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US President Donald Trump says Washington will win the Iran war soon after officials speak with mediators | ITA | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian forces hit Kyiv's National Academy of Sciences in daytime strikes, killing at least two people | LMT | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals new measures to support the economy and stabilise the property market | USD/CNH | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China signals new measures to support the economy and stabilise the property market | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediator talks as ceasefire effort resumes → Bearish DXY | DXY | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials held separate mediator-backed talks in a renewed effort to end the war | ZB=F | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Trump rejects Iran 7-day Hormuz truce as yields hit 2002 highs — QQQ multiples compress on oil inflation | QQQ | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| US and Iranian officials hold separate mediated discussions as Washington seeks nuclear co → Bullish TLT | TLT | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iran offers a seven-day ceasefire plan tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting oil sanctions | USO | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges more stimulus and property support as slowdown deepens | HG1 COMDTY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges additional measures to shore up growth and stabilize housing | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterates conditions for restoring Strait of Hormuz passage | BRENT CRUDE | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanon's Mansouri, Lebanese state media says | HAFR | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| White House posts U.S.-China Board of Trade product lists for reduced tariff treatment → Bullish FXI | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Meta Surges 13% on Muse AI Agent Rollout and Hardware Integration → Bullish SPY | SPY | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council promises new measures to support the economy and stabilize housing m → Bullish FXI | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Russian air strike injures 22 in Kharkiv apartment building, mayor says → Bearish EEM → Bearish EEM | EEM | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China says a two-month extension of its trade truce with the United States gives both side → Bullish FXI | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China welcomes US trade truce extension and opens talks on tariff cuts and agriculture → Bullish FXI | FXI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Oil prices rebound above $107 a barrel after President Trump rejects Iran's proposal to re → Bearish TLT | TLT | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Israeli military sets off large explosion in southern Lebanon's Mansouri, Lebanese state media says | BRENT | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterates conditions for restoring Strait of Hormuz passage | XLE | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges more stimulus and property support as slowdown deepens | USD/CNH | 2026-09-29 | bearish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges additional measures to shore up growth and stabilize housing | MCHI | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterates conditions for restoring Strait of Hormuz passage | VLCC FREIGHT | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–4 weeks | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges additional measures to shore up growth and stabilize housing | CNY/USD | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
| China's State Council pledges more stimulus and property support as slowdown deepens | 000002.SZ | 2026-09-29 | bullish | 1–5 days | SPY | — | — | — | — | Outcome pending |
Monitor events like thisFirst 10 runs freeAlerts fire on the same confirmation conditions recorded in the ledger.
Methodology
Forecast lock. A forecast enters the ledger when it is first published in the product. The locked timestamp is the record's creation time and is never re-inferred after the outcome is known. Rows cannot be edited post hoc; a revised view is a new row.
Abnormal return. Realized asset return over the stated horizon minus the benchmark return over the identical window. Equity forecasts use SPY; cross-asset forecasts use a composite of the instrument's own asset class. The measurement job fits a pre-event beta on the sixty sessions ending five sessions before the event, then subtracts the beta-scaled benchmark return.
Excursions. Maximum favorable and maximum adverse excursion are measured on closing prices within the horizon, so a row that ended flat after a large drawdown is still visible as a drawdown.
Failures. Direction misses and invalidations stay in the table and in the aggregate statistics. Hit rate is computed over measured rows only; pending rows are excluded from every aggregate and counted separately.
Limits. Hit rate on a small measured sample is not evidence of skill. Horizons overlap, so cumulative abnormal return is not a portfolio return and must not be read as one. No transaction costs, borrow costs, or slippage are applied.