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How to build a morning macro routine
A useful morning macro routine takes five minutes and answers four questions in order: what changed overnight, what regime are we in now, which assets are reacting, and what is the next catalyst. Most investors waste 45 minutes scanning newsletters, X, and tabs because they have no order. The fix is to read in transmission order - overnight news → rates and inflation → credit and crude → equities and vol - and stop when the picture is consistent.
- Check overnight changes first - Asia/EU close, FX moves, headline events. 60 seconds.
- Read the curve - 10Y, 2Y, 10Y-2Y spread. Direction matters more than level.
- Read credit + crude - HY OAS and Brent are the early lie detectors.
- Map the catalyst - Next data print, central-bank speaker, geopolitical risk window.
The four-question framework
Every morning, in order:
- What changed overnight? Headlines, FX, Asia/EU close. If nothing material, skip the noise.
- What is the regime? Risk-on, risk-off, mid-cycle, late-cycle. The regime determines which signals matter.
- What is reacting? Curve, credit, crude, vol. If they agree, the move is real. If they disagree, fade or wait.
- What is the next catalyst? Data print, Fed speaker, OPEC, geopolitical window.
Why most routines fail
They read in random order. They scan eight newsletters that all say the same thing. They confuse narrative with current state. The fix is structural - fixed order, fixed sources, fixed stopping rule.
The 5-minute version
Open one operating picture (regime + curve + credit + crude + events). If everything agrees, you are done. If something disagrees, that is the question for the day.
Frequently asked questions
How long should a morning macro routine take?
Five minutes if you have one operating picture. Forty-five if you read eight newsletters.
What should I check first?
Overnight changes - Asia/EU close, FX, headline events. Then read in transmission order: rates → credit → crude → equities → vol.